Interesting post, Chamath.
I’m working on the “Midas List alternative” that John mentioned with Greg Bohlen, a fund of funds manager — it’s called Sunesis and danprimack has been helping spread the word about us. He’ll ultimately publish our ranking list via Axios.
We’re trying to provide more meritocracy and objectivity by focusing only on realized investments, both gains and losses. Sunesis requests data directly from GPs and tracks cash flows in and out of portfolio companies along with the associated dates to calculate realized IRRs for each GP. We also account for fully diluted ownership at exit. Although we’re still collecting data, we plan to release a list that ranks GPs based only on realized IRRs, stratified by AUM.
Firm-level returns are a great idea and are what ultimately matter to LPs –we’d like to provide these as well provided we have enough data.
Irrespective of how the Uber debacle turns out (hopefully well), I think the situation here highlights the inherent unpredictability of startups. No matter how valuable a company might be in the moment, an exit is never guaranteed until it happens. We at Sunesis think the most responsible approach is to hold off on giving credit for investments until capital is returned or written off.