Fact Check: Cardiff’s Old-Fashioned Playing Style
The story of Cardiff’s rise contrasts to the more flashy, foreign-inspired promotion tales of recent years — but will this more traditional approach be mirrored in their tactical style this season?
Neil Warnock’s Cardiff have developed something of a reputation as an old-fashioned side — described as “old school” in the Sunday Times article which greeted their promotion, or “doughty, canny… and most likely unromantic” by the i recently. This assessment is probably fair in some ways, in particular due to the team’s reliance on their defensive record (the joint-best in the Championship this season) rather than their goalscoring, where they were outscored by five other teams in the league last season.
But it also reflects Warnock’s particular reputation as a dour, functional English manager, and the predominantly British, lower-league origins of his team. In contrast to four of the last five other managers to achieve promotion to the Premier League, Warnock is British, and his Cardiff side recruit largely from the English lower leagues, a policy that hasn’t changed with promotion.
Unlike fellow promoted sides Fulham and Wolves, Warnock has eschewed expensive foreign talent thus far, buying almost almost exclusively British players from Championship sides. Though this reflects the financial demands on Cardiff — a club which posted heavy losses in its most recent accounts — it also reflects a conscious effort from Warnock to buy British, in order to aid team unity and morale and perhaps suit his particular style of play. almost exclusively
I’m a little cautious, however, of assuming anything about Cardiff’s playing style from the identity of their manager and playing staff. After all, as Tifo’s March video on their tactical set-up highlighted, in terms of formation Cardiff are highly flexible, eschewing the rigid style traditionally associated with old-school British managers.
This article looks tries to dissect Cardiff’s playing style in the Championship last season, and how that will translate into the Premier League, by using data from StrataBet to look at their chance creation last season.
Reliance on set pieces
The most outstanding trait Cardiff has when it comes to chance creation is their reliance on set pieces.
The Welsh club created 21.6% of all their chances rated good and above (any chance with a conversion rate higher than about 8%) last season from set pieces. This compared with a league average of 17.1% and much lower totals from the other promoted clubs.
Fulham, in particular, were far less reliant on set pieces than most, producing just 7.6% of their good chances through set pieces.
This is something that will surely continue in the Premier League for Cardiff, as smarter defences will further restrict the number of open play chances that will be available. So expect to see a continual use of throw-ins, corners and free-kicks by Cardiff in the top flight.
Forcing opposition mistakes
Cardiff also differ from the Championship average, and the other promoted sides in particular, in their reliance on forcing chances from opposition mistakes.
They generated 9.3% of key entries (periods of possession beyond the line of the opposition 18-yard-box) from winning the ball back from the opposition in these areas rather than progressing through passing or dribbling themselves.
This is higher than the league average, and much higher than either Wolves (7.1%) or Fulham (6.1%), demonstrating Cardiff are one of the best sides in the league at pressing the opposition into defensive mistakes.
They also generated more good chances from turnovers than Wolves or Fulham, relying particularly on the energetic defensive work of lone striker Kenneth Zohore.
Whether their pressing game, particularly away from home, will continue against more technically adept Premier League defences is hard to know, as the risk is that they could simply be passed around.
But this statistic demonstrates that, particularly in games against relegation rivals and at home, Cardiff are very capable of using pressing tactics not always associated with their conservative reputation.
Not reliant on wing play
Another element of Cardiff’s game which perhaps contrasts with traditional assumptions about Warnock’s style is their reliance on going through the middle, rather than the wings, to create chances.
39.3% of the Bluebirds’ key entries came directly into the box, rather than through the wings, a much higher percentage than those of their promoted rivals and the league average, and demonstrating their attacking strength in central areas, especially with the quality of Zohore as well as Joe Ralls and Callum Paterson in central midfield.
However, perhaps because of their reliance on set-pieces, Cardiff’s chance creation is heavily weighted towards headed chances. 32.5% of Cardiff’s chances rated good or above last season came from headers, more than the league average and much higher than the other two promoted teams, who were more reliant on shooting by foot.
What difference will signings make?
It is difficult to assess how Cardiff’s new signings will impact on their set-up. Greg Cunningham and Alex Smithies will slot fairly quickly into the established set-up, but Bobby Reid in particular may force a change of shape from Warnock.
The 25-year-old was a revelation playing in a more central role for Bristol City last season, but is unlikely to displace Zohore up front for Cardiff, meaning he will play either in the hole or on the flank depending on whether Warnock deploys a 4–3–3 or a 4–2–3–1 next season.
Either way, his pace may encourage Warnock to play more firmly on the counter-attack, dropping back and inviting opponents on, and perhaps reduce their impulse to press opponents into mistakes.
Midfield changes?
New midfield addition Victor Caramasa, meanwhile, a deadline day loan signing from Real Betis, will be tasked with filling the big shoes of Marko Grujic, the Liverpool loanee who filled in so effectively in midfield towards the end of last season for Cardiff.
Caramasa’s playing style does not offer a direct replacement for Grujic’s physical threat however, nor will the addition of Harry Arter, also on loan, from Bournemouth. Neither player came close to replicating Grujic’s defensive output last year, admittedly both playing at a higher level, with the Serb’s impressive 1.8 interceptions/90, 2.8 clearances/90 and 4.8 aerial duels won/90 all dwarfing the contributions of his replacements.
Warnock may be planning to convert the more defensively-minded Arter into a Grujic replacement, or may simply give Loic Damour more opportunities at the base of midfield and deploy his new signings in place of Paterson and Ralls in more attacking positions.
However they line up next year, however, their tactical blueprint should not be assumed by people who only know Warnock’s previous teams and the traditional reputation of the squad.
In particular, Cardiff’s pressing style, creating chances by encouraging opponents to make mistakes in their own third, may come as a shock to some Premier League sides.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform.