Climate’s Last Call: How will we counter? ( An assessment of Indian Strategies towards Climate Change and the upcoming role of Galaxy Climate)

The world is at a risk, gradual but high. The Emission Reductions From Pandemic Had Unexpected Effects on the Atmosphere. Spasmodically, most of the air emissions were curbed, and the air quality index hits the safest figures. With this good news, scientists found certain anomalies. Due to depletion in NOx concentrations, a global reduction of Ozone was witnessed since in the process of formation of NOx and in its reaction with VOCs, the ground Ozone formation is initiated. The relation between the NOx and Ozone levels can be read here.

Adding to the misery, the self-cleansing capacity of air has also abated, making the air sick and unable to cleanse itself of gases like methane (a greenhouse gas). Thus Methane compounded by 0.30% in the last year(which is greater than its increment in the last decade).

Due to the diminution of surface Albedo Effect, the Arctic is experiencing a threefold increment in the temperature and records the 10th lowest winter ice peak in 2022.

Every year in the Spring, the Saharan Dust brings 22,000 tonnes of Phosphorus and nutrients laden air to the Amazon Rainforests fostering its good sustenance. But this year, a severe degradation in the air quality is witnessed in large parts of Spain and France due to this motion of dust. Also, the frequency and magnitude of this nutrient-laden dust are expected to drastically reduce in the coming years.

Reviewing the above cases, it is hard to state that these activities have human intervention. But this is similar to the pieces of dominoes. Upon being honest, we find ourselves to be the one who has pushed the very first piece by our neglect. You might wonder, “How can a small act of mine be so catastrophic?” Just to state one, “ Do you smoke?” If yes, well, you must know that a 2 percent reduction in emissions of ETS would be equivalent to eliminating all the coal-fired power plants in the United States (Smith, 1993b). This era has been titled as ‘Anthropogenic Era’ for obvious reasons.

“One of the big questions in the climate change debate: Are humans any smarter than frogs in a pot? If you put a frog in a pot and slowly turn up the heat, it won’t jump out. Instead, it will enjoy the nice warm bath until it is cooked to death. We humans seem to be doing pretty much the same thing.” — Jeff Goodell

Nobody would desire to end up like the frog. Thus it is crucial for us to know the severity of the problem from time to time so as to adapt to suitable methods of safety and mitigation. To the rescue comes the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Panel has drafted a total of 6 Assessment Reports to date. The AR6 has been published in three parts. The third was launched on the 4th of April,2022. The importance of this organization and its report is immense. Almost all the countries of the world form their mitigation policies and have the international Climate Change Negotiations solely based on these Assessment Reports. Any of the Climate Conventions organized follows this report as their basis of discussions and actions(e.g. The Paris Agreement, 2021, U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change:’ The Earth Summit, Rio De Janeiro’,1992).

The report has taken into consideration more than 15,000 high-quality research papers and over hundreds of renowned scientists’ opinions. It is huge in volume and is something that can save our lives in the future. Below are some of the must-know insights from the latest reports:

1)Inclusion of more actionable information with the latest scientific evidence, rather than a theoretical analysis of the problem is the need of the hour.

2)The first part of the report, The Physical Science Basis, includes a lot more focus on regional effects of climate change as different regions have variations in expected impacts of climate change. With clear indications that the sea level rise by 2100 is expected to be 0.5 to 1 meters, it paints a devastating picture of the scenario when the levels may also rise between 2 to 5 meters due to neglect. The impact of all the global warming events would be evident in terms of ‘Extreme Events.’ Announcement of the need to keep the global carbon budget below 1.5 degrees Celsius implying a net-zero before 2050 is one of the most crucial insights.

3) As per the second part of the report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, at least 40% of the world population is ‘highly vulnerable.’ If emissions are not curbed, one billion people will face the atrocities of flooding due to sea-level rise. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves are and will be more frequent and extreme. The topics examined include biodiversity loss, migration, water scarcity, etc. The report stated 127 negative impacts of climate change, many being irreversible. The report laid focuses on the removal of carbon from the atmosphere, measures to tackle food insecurity, and information about water scarcity. The report also mentions China as the country bearing the maximum financial cost of temperature rise.

4) The third working group report Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

gives special attention to international cooperation for climate mitigation goals attainment. It also has included some new approaches to incorporate youth participation and has shifted pivot to lower energy consumption with decent living standards.

Now we know almost everything that’s needed. Our actions have to be rigorous and in the correct direction.

Current Climatic Situation Of India and Future Trends as per IPCC:

The diversity in the Geography of India makes its climate more complicated. India is bounded by the mountain ranges of the Himalayas in the north and by three water bodies in the south namely the Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal, and the Indian Ocean. The region has the presence of coastal cities, deserts, snow-capped mountains, glaciers, islands, and landlocked cities.

• As per the AR6 fact sheet, India lies in the SAS(South Asia) region. The sheet mentions the heat extremes have increased while the cold extremes have decreased. There is sufficient evidence namely: India witnessing the coldest and wettest winters in 2021–2022 as compared to other winters. Also, India experienced the hottest March ever in 122 years. Statistics indicate the trend to continue for the next decade. This can make the living conditions in cold states like Jammu & Kashmir as well as the hot states like Kerala and Rajasthan extremely uncomfortable.

• There will be a considerable increment in the monsoon and summer rainfall in 2021 with increased variability. Some of the hints have already been given by nature with wet winters at the beginning of this year. This can create increased instances of floods in India due to pluvial reasons. Mumbai experiences moderate flooding even during the normal rainy seasons.

• The melting glaciers and thawing permafrost are and will be trouble makers in coming times. Seasonal snow duration and glacial mass are expected to decrease by the mid-21st century. This is evident in the conditions prevailing in the Gangotri. As the glaciers melt and due to deep ocean heat uptake, the sea level rise is expected to rise for the 21st century to millennia.

The thawing of permafrost can leach microbes and chemicals into the environment.

• As per the AR6 fact sheet on oceans, the surface of the Indian Ocean has heated more than the global average and this has been stated under high confidence. The term the Indian Ocean used here is inclusive of ‘Bay Of Bengal’, ‘Arabian Sea’, ‘Eastern Indian Ocean’, and ‘Southern Indian Ocean. This is leading to a situation of ocean acidification due to increasing Carbon Dioxide in the air. At higher temperatures, the dissolved oxygen of the ocean water is excessively decreased and is expected to harm the marine ecosystem. These changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide are mainly associated with anthropogenic activities.

• Out of 29, 9 major Indian states and three union territories located on the coastlines in India house over 560 million people. The current sea levels for the Indian Coasts can be found in the new tool developed by Nasa. Find Here

According to NASA, the cities of Kandla, Okha, Bhaunagar, Mumbai, Mormugao, Mangalore, Kochi, Paradip, Khidirpur, Visakhapatnam, Chennai, and Tuticorin are in the risk zone and may face complete submergence due to lying in lower lands. The situation is alarming as Mumbai has the largest economy and is the richest city in India.

• The IPCC regional fact sheet: Urban Areas state that due to the Urban Heat Island Effect, the cities are warmer than the rural areas. Mainly the metropolis namely Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata house approx 40% of the Indian population. It is these urban areas where big problems of SMOG exist, Delhi Smog, Kanpur Smog, Mumbai smog, etc.

Initiatives to Combat Climate Change in India and in Cities of National Importance:

At the COP26 (Conference Of Parties) meeting, these were the five major commitments made by India towards the COP26:

• ‘India will bring non-fossil fuel capacity to 500GW by 2030.’
• ‘By 2030, India will fulfill 50% of its energy requirements through renewable energy.’
• ‘India will cut down its net projected carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes from now until 2030.’
• ‘By 2030, India will bring down the carbon intensity of its economy by more than 45%.’
• ‘By 2070, India will achieve its target of ‘net zero’ carbon emission.’

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National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

The NAPCC program was formulated in 2008 to assess the changing climate conditions and coordinate and mitigate climate risks. The program has eight submissions shown in the figure below.

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Programmes Monitoring Energy and Water Usage(including recycling and waste conversion)

National Solar Mission:

Target: Achieving 20,000 Megawatts by 2017. It was revised in 2017 and the target has been redefined to 100,000 Megawatts by 2022. Along with this project, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has established a target of generating 40 Gigawatts of Solar Power from the rooftop and 60 Gigawatts from other grid-connected solar power projects.

Measures: In order to ensure the success of the program, various campaigns have been launched namely: “Kisan Urja Suraksha Evam Utthan Mahabhiyan(KUSUM)”. They have established 2970 MW of grid-connected solar generation capacity,364 MW off-grid solar generation capacity, and 8.42 sq. meters of solar thermal collectors. With these endeavors, India has become the fifth largest solar power in the world. Several NGOs are actively working for a shift towards solar-powered electricity. Several individuals like the story of ‘Solar Gram’ are adding up to India’s success.

Local Initiatives:

1. Pradhan Mantri Solar Panel Yojna aims at providing extra income to the Indian farmers by means of solar power.
2. With minimal identification proof and land documents, the farmers can opt to apply to the scheme and enjoy the benefits. Under this scheme, the farmers are provided with solar-powered pumps. This will lead to a huge reduction in diesel consumption and promote solar power.
3. Moreover, an extra subsidy is provided to the farmers who install their fields with systematically designed solar grids. The excess produced electricity can be sold to the government @ Rs.2/unit.
4. Farmers are allowed to plant vegetables below the grids for more space utilization. Rs.6000/month is transferred to the farmers under this scheme.

What can be done locally: The scheme sounds lucrative but is limited to the farmer community. The inclusion of youth can have exponential growth in the project. The education system should incorporate the subject of green energy with practical learning approaches like training on how to establish a rooftop solar panel. Work under this scheme must be in a more systematic manner where the distribution of responsibilities can be done to local NGOs. The proper reward for work can attract huge participation. Subsidy on solar panels for all can lead to lots of positive results.

National Water Mission

Target: (a) Comprehensive water database in the public domain and assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources; (b) Promotion of citizen and state action for water conservation, augmentation, and preservation; Focused attention to vulnerable areas including over-exploited areas; (d) Increasing water use efficiency by 20%, and (e) Promotion of basin level integrated water resources management.

Measures:

1. Schemes like The Jal Jeevan Mission and Jal Shakti Abhiyan have been put forward by the government to push the mission to success.
2. Under the Jal Shakti Abhiyan: catch the rain campaign, the institutions focus on collecting and conserving rainwater in those 4-to 5 months of the Indian Monsoon.
3. The Jal Jeevan mission (renamed the National Rural Drinking Water Mission in 2009) works on enabling rural households to have access to and use safe and adequate drinking water within premises to the extent possible.
4. Its total estimated cost is 3.6 lakh crore Rupees. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced an outlay of Rs. 50,011 crore for this scheme-about 4.5 times the revised budget for 2020–21.

Local Initiatives: As of April 2021, 4.07 crore rural households have been provided tap water connections across India under the Jal Jeevan Mission. Currently, the total number of targeted households is 19.18 crores, of which 7.31 crore rural households have been provided tap water under the mission. Under the ‘catch the rain’ initiative, all water bodies in a district are enumerated and encroachments removed.

What can be done locally: Safe drinking water is the need of the hour. Mumbai, despite having the largest economy, faces an acute water crisis. The main focus should be on avoiding water source contamination. The discharge of effluents into the water body must be inhibited. Most of the urban regions have an uninterrupted supply of water but the semi-urban and rural regions have intermittent supply. The focus must be laid on a more uniform supply of water. Rainwater harvesting must be incentivized so as to boost participation in the process. Proper water seepage setup must be promoted or recharging of groundwater. When it comes to water, there are various classes of water depending on the quality. Thus a more classified method of water supply must be adopted. The water used in flushing the toilets need not to be coming from Class A. Thus the household wastewater can be further treated and purified to be used for this purpose. There must be a ban on the discharge of sewage from the ships into the rivers and oceans.

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge on Climate Change

Target: This mission involves the formation of knowledge networks among the existing knowledge institutions involved in research and development relating to climate science and facilitating data sharing and exchange through a suitable policy framework and institutional support.

Measures: The measures taken as a part of the mission are-

1. Establishing Networks of Knowledge Institutions
2. Quantum increases in research on climate science
3. Setting up an effective mechanism for data sharing and access
4. Building foresight for climate change response
5. Filling knowledge gaps
6. Sub missions to address climate change impacts (mitigation technologies sub-mission and adaptation technologies sub-mission)
7. Strengthening Institutional and Knowledge Capacity(Human capacity building and Institutional capacity building and creating essential knowledge infrastructure as well).

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

Target: The National Mission for Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) aims to a) understand scientifically the complex processes affecting this ecosystem, b) evolve suitable management and policy measures for sustaining and safeguarding the Himalayan ecosystem including Himalayan glaciers, and c) work with the states in the Indian Himalayan region in the implementation of scientifically derived policy measures.

Measures:

1. Continuous monitoring of the ecosystem and data generation.
2. Taking up Glaciology research and development programs and establishing a National Centre for Himalayan Glaciology.
3. Generation of bio-geo database and ecological modeling for the Himalayas.
4. Prediction of socio-economic and Climate change scenarios.
5. Identification of desirable adaptation policies to improve regional sustainability

Local Initiatives: Ensuring sustainable food security for the mountain people and conserving human-managed biodiversity under varied land-use systems is one of the most important steps under the mission. The mission has established mechanisms for plantations of endemic species having multipurpose values to maintain the integrity of the Himalayan ecosystem.

Programs monitoring greenhouse gas emission

Green India Mission

Target: (a) The Green India Mission is aimed at protecting, restoring, and enhancing India’s green cover in response to climate change. The mission has a cumulative target of increasing forest cover on 5 million hectares of land while improving the forest cover on additional 5 hectares. The mission also has a target of providing livelihood to 3 million people through forest-based activities and enhancing the provisioning capacity of the Indian forests along with their carbon sequestration capacity.

Measures:

The mission has been broken down into a variety of sub-missions and so are the measures taken which include-

1. Enhancing the quality of forest cover and improving ecosystem services (Eco-restoration of degraded open forests and restoration of grasslands)
2. Ecosystem restoration and increase in forest cover(rehabilitation of shifting cultivation areas, Restoring scrublands, Planting sea buckthorn, Restoration of mangroves, ravine reclamation, restoration of abandoned mining areas, etc.)
3. Enhancing the tree cover in urban and peri-urban areas.
4. Agroforestry and Social forestry
5. Restoration of wetlands

National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

Development of sustainable habitat standards that lead to robust development strategies while simultaneously addressing climate change-related concerns.

Target: Preparation of city development plans that comprehensively address adaptation and mitigation concerns. It aims to prepare comprehensive mobility plans that enable cities to undertake long-term, energy-efficient, and cost-effective transport planning and

capacity building for undertaking activities relevant to the mission. Successful implementation of the above flagship missions has the potential to mitigate GHG emissions amounting to 270 million tons of CO2eq by the year 2031

Measures: The Mission is being implemented through the four flagship missions/programs of the Ministry of Urban Development, which are-Atal the Mission on Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), Swachh Bharat Mission, Smart Cities Mission, and the Urban Transport Program.

Local Initiatives: National Building Code (2005) has been developed by the Bureau of Indian Standards as a guiding code to be followed by municipalities and development authorities in the formulation and adaptation of building Laws. This focuses on-Use of pozzolans (such as fly ash, and rice husk ash) in concrete production, Daylight Integration (indoor lighting levels to be met vis daylight lighting), Artificial lighting requirements for indoor spaces, Ventilation standards for optimal human health and well-being, Electrical Standards, Select HVAC design norms.

Eco-housing programs are also a part of the mission on a local level which includes site selection, environmental architecture, efficient building materials, energy conservation and management, water conservation, segregation of waste, and other innovative measures.

What can be done locally:

C-40 Cities Network is a group of 97 cities around the world, aimed at fighting climate change and reducing greenhouse gases emissions, and mitigating climate risks.

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The group represents 1/12th of the world population and 1/4th of the world GDP. Five Indian Cities namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, and Bengaluru are currently a part of the C-40 Cities Network. Thus these cities are of great significance thus the government is on its toes to prevent further damage to these centers by redefining the guidelines, policies, and the area of focus.

Mumbai Climate Action Plan

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As discussed earlier, Mumbai, the largest economy in India, is vulnerable to temperature rise and extreme rain events.The city is expected to be submerged in water by 2100. Such an alarming condition needs to be dealt with immediately. To combat the current situation and to prevent future devastation, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai(MCGM) with support from the World Resources Institute(WRI) has drafted the latest ‘Mumbai Climate Action Plan’ on 13th March 2022. The Plan focuses on the following sectors:

Sustainable Waste Management:

• MACP has focused on the decentralization of municipal waste by actions such as waste segregation and classification at the source, organic waste composting, etc.
• It aims at wastewater treatment by adapting better infrastructure and advanced practices. An emphasis is laid on the 4Rs ( Reduce, Reuse, Recover and Recycle).

Urban Greening and Biodiversity:

• MACP calls for increasing the per capita green space ratio in the city as well as the country.
• Expanding the vegetation cover is stressed in order to reduce the effect of heatwaves and arrest urban flooding.
• It calls for “green space access for all citizens.”

Urban Flooding and Water Resource Management:

• The reduction of problems caused due to waterlogging and floods is the center of discussion.
• Plans have been laid out to deal with the lack of drinking water and initiatives to make it affordable and accessible.
• Due to the risks of flooding, the plan aims at altering the current infrastructure(which seems to be a failure during the rainy seasons) to a more flood-resilient infrastructure by improving the drainage system. The government’s focus has shifted to the usage of advanced technologies for the creation of more robust warming systems and sensitizing vulnerable and coastal communities.
• Water reuse via percolation and rainwater harvesting has been laid great focus on.

Energy and Buildings:

• Retrofitting existing buildings as well as adopting a more inclusive concept of green buildings in the state is proposed. MCGM mentions that Mumbai’s electricity system is a totally coal-based grid system and accounts for 64.3% of emissions. Thus more renewable sources of energy, as well as cleaner fuels, are proposed to be included in electricity generation.

Air Quality and Sustainable mobility:

• The report outlines different ways of improving air quality and elaborates on the need for decentralization of the process of planning and community awareness.
• The MACP aims for shifting completely to EVs( Electrical Vehicles) as compared to petroleum-fueled vehicles in order to curb carbon emissions.

Galaxy Community can be a Game Changer

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With over 2000 pre-existing tools, the Galaxy Community is constantly adding up to the number. With great brains around the world, the community is robust and focuses on multidimensional areas like bioinformatics and now ‘Climate.’ Galaxy Climate Project is formulated under the initiative: Nordic Earth System Modelling Community (climate models developed/run in Scandinavia and Baltic countries), headed by esteemed Anne Fouilloux. The tool is new and has several servers. It supports general GIS handling tools.I am fortunate enough to get a chance to work on the Europe server.

India is proud and fortunate to have a workbench and a server of Galaxy named “Galaxy India ‘’. Galaxy Project very strongly intends to promote intense and reproducible science. Bioclues organization is an active Indian member using Galaxy. The initiative has been in the running phase for more than the past 4 years and had a soft launch mentioning “Namaste Galaxy India.” Currently, the organization is immensely helping the Indian researchers and scientists largely in the field of Bioinformatics. Galaxy India was actively represented by Indian researchers at the IncoB 2019 in Jakarta, Indonesia. Some other programs include BoF Galaxy-India: Launch and Outreach Plans. Many more initiatives are being constantly taken by the group to spread the popularity of the community by glorifying the immense ease that the tool has brought to their day-to-day lives.

How can the Galaxy Climate Cloud be helpful to my region?

India is a technically advanced country with great brains and houses more than 250 out of the fortune 500s. But when it comes to climate, the growth in terms of Data and Analytics Capacity still seems to be lagging. Very rare real-time analysis tools are available. The people involved in the climate studies are the only ones who know about in and outs of their regional climate. Once a tool is built and deployed, there isn’t a culture of ‘reproducible science.’ Most of the works and research under the tag of Climate Change are looked after by government organizations. More paperwork and policy formation takes place but rigorous analysis and quick actions for mitigation are truly missing. There are some tools available that are not locally customized for India. Indian geographical variations, huge population, and biodiversity. Thus Galaxy Climate Cloud can be a game-changer.

• As the IPCC has shifted its focus more on a regional front, I believe if the community works towards the development of customized tools for various regions, taking into account more detailed and relevant datasets, we can definitely obtain better insights.
• If a fire breaks out in the Amazon or there is a huge oil spill in the Atlantic Ocean or hot winds blow from the Sahara towards South Asia, these activities are not caused by us. But it is extremely essential to have tools to track the effect of these activities on our country. Unfortunately if I ‘Google’, I cannot find any such tool to ease my task. All I get is a plethora of research papers. I believe Galaxy Climate Cloud truly has a solution to this problem as it has all the tools pre-developed in pieces. All that’s needed is connecting those pieces with proper thought and diligence to solve this huge puzzle.
• ‘India is known better by an Indian.’ If the Galaxy Climate Project joins hands with the Government-funded prestigious technical institutes (IITs, NITs, IISc, BIT Mesra) great brains would get an opportunity to get exposed to the community. This can definitely lead to the addition of tools and ideas to the Galaxy archive. As per my experience, a person who comes in association with Galaxy will never turn back to the old ways. The aura is magnetic and the purpose is requisite. The time has come for more actions than words as the US ex-President Barack Obama has rightly quoted-

“We are the first generation to feel the effect of climate change and the last generation who can do something about it.”