Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Source: NASA Goddard)

The problem from hell…

This is in continuation from the previous post titled “Orwell’s paradise”. If you haven’t read that yet, I would suggest you read it first.

Orwell’s paradise

We’re Johnny-come-latelies. We live in the cosmic boondocks. We emerged from microbes and muck. Apes are our cousins. Our thoughts and feelings are not fully under our own control. There may be much smarter and very different beings elsewhere. And on top of all this, we’re making a mess of our planet and becoming a danger to ourselves.

— Carl Sagan

Scientists have hypothesized about Anthropogenic (meaning human-caused) Global Warming (AGW) for over a hundred years [1], and have definitively known about it since at least the last sixty [2]. The basic science behind global warming is quite simple. Here’s a short recap:

Human emissions cause the increase in concentration of Green House Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This results in more heat being trapped by the earth’s atmosphere than would normally be the case. How much extra heat? Consider the short clip below:

That is the footage of the atomic bomb dropped over the Japanese city of Hiroshima during World War II.

The extra heat trapped due to anthropogenic GHG emissions is the equivalent of 400,000 Hiroshima sized nuclear bombs going off — everyday! [3]

There are many impacts of AGW, and some have already started to occur:

We are causing a mass extinction of species on planet Earth

1. All around the globe, species are dying off at an unprecedented rate. According to various estimates, the current rate of extinction of species is a hundred to a thousand times the background (natural) extinction rate. By the mid-century, up to 50% of all species on this planet might go extinct [4].
2. Most of the human caused GHG emissions are absorbed by the ocean [5]. As a result, oceans are getting more acidic [6]. This is resulting in the loss of many ecosystems like coral reefs [7], which support an incredible spectrum of life [8]. In 2016 alone, a quarter of the world famous Australian Great Barrier Reef — the world’s largest living organism, died off [9].
3. As per a WWF report titled the Living Planet Index, human actions would have caused around two-thirds of all animal life to be dead by the year 2020. A significant portion of that is attributed to GHG emissions and AGW. [10]
4. Large, diverse and significant ecosystems evolved over millions of years are dying out in a matter of few years — like what would happen during mass extinction event.

Historically stable global weather patterns are getting disrupted

1. As per recent research, AGW may be causing regular air current patterns, which have been stable for long periods of time to suddenly shift or become erratic. [11]
2. For two years in a row (2016, 2017)[12], during the arctic winter on the north pole and surrounding regions, temperatures have risen to an astounding 20 degree Celsius above normal. This is causing record levels of ice-melt and raising concerns that the arctic may be completely ice-free during summers in the years to come [13]. Down in the south, the Larsen-C ice-shelf on the edge of Antarctica is about to fall off into the ocean [14].
3. The Holocene (our current geological epoch) has seen remarkably stable temperatures and weather patterns in the past ten thousand years. This has allowed human civilization as we know it to prosper and flourish. There is increasing evidence that this era of climactic stability is being brought to a sudden and abrupt end and we have entered a new epoch — the Anthropocene, or the era where human impact on planet Earth is significant enough to leave traces in the geological record which could be studied by a future civilization, or species millions of years later.

Global temperatures are rising at a rate unknown to (recent geological) history

1. Based on average global temperatures, 2016 was the hottest year in recorded history. The previous hottest year was 2015. The year 2017 is on track to be the third warmest ever. In fact, fifteen out of the sixteen hottest years in history have occurred since 2000. [15]
2. Current average global ocean temperatures may be the highest in the past 125,000 years. [16]
3. Global temperature rises are tracking the high end of the projections of various peer-reviewed climate models.
4. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels — a principal GHG, crossed 400 parts per million (ppm) in 2016 and is likely to stay above that for many decades, if not centuries or millennia even if we halt all GHG emissions right now. Before the industrial revolution, CO2 levels were below 250 ppm [17].
5. Sea levels are rising everywhere. The arctic and antarctic latitudes are seeing accelerated ice melt. In the near future, the north pole may be completely ice free during peak summer.

(Related) The planet is crossing critical boundaries where the natural checks and balances start breaking down, pushing the climate system into an unforeseen state of equality [18]

Planetary boundaries (Source: Wikipedia)

Inaction

If the science and the evidence is so obvious, why aren’t human beings doing anything about it? The answer is quite complex, and this challenge before us has come to be called as “The problem from Hell” [19]. To understand why, let us first recap what hell is:

“Hell is truth seen too late.” — Thomas Hobbes

Consider the following philosophical thought experiment (reproduced from the book “Reason in a Dark Time” — Dale Jamieson [20]).

In which of the following examples involving Jack, Jill and her bicycle would you say that Jack was morally wrong?

1. Jack intentionally steals Jill’s bicycle.
2. Jack is part of an unacquainted group of strangers, each of which, acting independently, takes one part of Jill’s bicycle, resulting in the bicycle’s disappearance.
3. Jack takes one part from each of a large number of bicycles, one of which belongs to Jill.
4. Jack and Jill live on different continents, and the loss of Jill’s bicycle is the consequence of a causal chain that begins with Jack ordering a used bicycle at a shop.
5. Jack lives many centuries before Jill, and consumes materials that are essential to bicycle manufacturing; as a result, it will not be possible for Jill to have a bicycle.

Most people might agree that Jack was morally wrong in cases 1–3 above. Some people might think that there isn’t anything morally questionable in 4–5. Now consider the case below.

6. Acting independently, Jack and a large number of unacquainted people set in motion a chain of events that causes a large number of future people who will live in another part of the world from ever having bicycles.

For most people that is just the description of normal everyday behavior. There is nothing suspect about it at all.

This is one of the many reasons why we have failed to address Climate Change (I use the terms AGW and Climate Change interchangeably). The most severe effects of climate change will be removed in space and time from the people who caused it. Hence the people who are causing climate change are ignorant in the face of obvious facts.

Morality

AGW is also a reflection of our moral foundations amplified by technology. Our moral foundations drive our actions in society. However, the connection is not direct (or linear). Our structures provide our leaders with power which is increasing exponentially with time, yet at the same time limiting the spectrum of actions those leaders can take. This is why, even though there are a number of well meaning people in politics and leadership, they have to restrict their actions or otherwise risk being kicked out of the system. This is resulted in large chunks of the environmental movement to merely become an advocate for ‘green-capitalism’ — as if changing a light bulb in your home is going to change the planet.

A combination of changes in political discourse and the emergence of social media and mass surveillance have also changed the way we think — as consumers rather than as citizens.

One story to rule them all…

If humanity is to destroy the planet, it needs an efficient machine. The last hundred years or so of our existence have been an exercise in fine-tuning and upgrading that machine — free-market capitalism.

The idea of free-market capitalism is very simple. John and Jill both want to sell ice-creams and make a living. Jill puts more effort and energy into making her ice-creams which turn out better tasting than John’s. As a result, people purchase Jill’s ice-creams making her business a success and causing John to rethink whether he should make better ice-creams or go into another business.

Fundamentally, free-market capitalism is amoral.

Human nature isn’t.

In an ancient story, an emperor ruling over large parts of India said this in penance and remorse after victory in a murderous war resulting in the deaths of over 200,000 people.

One who does good first does something hard to do.

Truly, it is easy to do evil.

— Ashoka [21]

Human nature, it would seem, hasn’t changed much in the last few millennia since this was embossed on a rock. Coupled with the amoral nature of capitalism, it fosters greed, and a lack of empathy.

It would only be natural then, that what started possibly as a benign system of selling ice-creams has come to largely be a means of global control by a few handful corporations with selfish interests. These corporations now run the world, and have unequivocal control over politics (one example: [22]). Till recently, there was at least a false pretense of honesty and uprightness. With the recent election of leaders like Donald Trump, even that has washed away. The gloves are off!

In sum, the vast majority of species on our planet including us are facing one of it’s gravest challenges yet — Anthropogenic Global Warming.

The cause of the problem is quite simple and direct — human activities are dumping out vast, unregulated quantities of green house gases into the open sewer otherwise known as our atmosphere. We are blissfully unaware of the magnitude of the problem and the looming catastrophe for us and other species on this planet.

Instead of meditating upon the root causes of the problem — we are perpetually distracted by our love for technology. First, we live in a world where technology restricts us in our echo chamber while making us less empathetic towards others. Next, our mass surveillance infrastructure puts unequivocal power in the hands of corporations with selfish interests and political leaders largely controlled by those corporations. Last but not least — we are masters at self-deception when it comes to believing that technology is going to save the day, like trying out some new untested magic-pill on a dying patient.

My hope in writing this blog is to help support serious discussions around this topic. If these words seem dark and portentous, then so be it. It is much better to confront reality and act accordingly than to fool oneself. We have reached a tipping point — failure to act now will cause exponentially more damage to future human civilization and what is left of the species on this planet.

Believing that changing a light-bulb is going to change the planet will drive us headlong into this disaster.

In the posts following this, I hope to search for answers.

Every point in human history is unique, and it is always the last chance to make some particular difference. Until the world or humanity comes to an end (literally), there will always be a chance to make a difference. We need to see through the fog and soberly grasp the problems that we face.

— Dale Jamieson

[to be continued…]

Next post:

Realization…