APE’s Uphill Battle: Can HV-MTL Forge Reverse the Slump?
TL;DR:
Yuga Labs launched a game called HV-MTL Forge that combines elements of pet breeding and social competitive games. The aim is to boost user engagement in the NFT gaming market.
The first season of the game saw a decline in player enthusiasm and a decrease in APE token consumption. A total of about 241,765 APE tokens, equivalent to $520,000, were consumed during this season.
The second season introduced new elements and made adjustments to the reward mechanisms. However, these changes do not appear to significantly increase APE recharging.
If APE recharging remains consistent with the first season, the total recharged APE across the six seasons is projected to be around 1,440,000 APE. This only represents about 0.27% of the total circulating supply and will likely not impact overall circulation significantly, especially as recharged tokens might be sold.
Despite the continuous price decline of the APE token, it currently doesn’t seem to be a favorable investment. However, the high standards of Yuga Labs are evident in the game’s quality, showing potential for future improvements and success.
1. Introduction
HV-MTL Forge is a game launched by Yuga Labs, which falls between pet breeding and casual worlds. It’s a creative, social, and competitive production game targeted towards HV-MTL NFT holders. As a Web3 company focusing on NFTs, Yuga Labs utilizes HV-MTL Forge to further expand its influence in the NFT gaming market. Both pet breeding and social competitive games have been popular among players, and with the launch of HV-MTL Forge, Yuga Labs aims to attract more users to participate and drive the game’s development through creativity, social interaction, and competitive elements among NFT holders. This strategy may help elevate Yuga Labs’ position in the NFT gaming market and increase user engagement within its community.
The main fun and objective of the game are to create a forge and keep your HV (a “pet” you need to nurture in the game) happy and efficient. You’ll need to construct and decorate your forge to win the community’s votes, earning the most votes for your HV and forge. The more forging votes you accumulate, the greater the rewards.
The game is divided into 6 seasons, each lasting for 3 weeks. Currently, the first season has concluded, and the second season has begun. While the game’s content may not be extensive, the future development prospects and blueprint planning are quite vast.
With season 1 concluded recently, let’s dive into some of the key metrics and their implications!
2. Season 1 Operation Metrics
To track the game’s performance, we have created a dashboard that evaluates the first season’s operations based on several dimensions: NFT minting, holdings, trading, and APE recharges within the game. By analyzing the data from this dashboard, we can gain insights into the first season’s operating condition.Next, we will summarize the updates for the second season.
2.1 NFT Mint Details
Regarding HV-MTL NFT minting condition, the total supply is 30,000. Currently, 28,056 NFTs have been minted, leaving 1,955 NFTs yet to be minted.
HV-MTL serves as the Pass Card to enter this game. Its minting process involves burning the SewerPass, and based on the ranking in Dookey Dash, HV-MTL NFTs are minted. Dookey Dash is a casual game launched by Yuga prior to HV-MTL and is an integral part of the Yuga gaming ecosystem.
In the official announcement on Bored Ape Yacht Club’s Twitter, it was mentioned that there are 789 SewerPasses with Rank=0 that cannot mint HV.
By adding the numbers, we can calculate that 23,752 (Burned Sewer Passes) + 3,515 (Unminted Sewer Passes) + 789 (Rank=0) = 28,056, which precisely matches the total number of minted HV NFTs.
2.2 NFT Holding Details
From the table, it can be observed that the total number of holding addresses is 9,752, with 6,222 addresses holding only 1 NFT each. The address with the highest number of holdings is Yuga’s multi-signature wallet, which holds 4,295 NFTs (from unminted and Rank=0 Sewer Passes). Apart from Yuga, the address with the second-highest number of holdings has 383 NFTs. Among the top 100 addresses, the cumulative number of holdings represents 33.28% of the total NFTs, indicating a moderate level of concentration. Additionally, out of the top 100 holders, only 12 have conducted recharges.
2.3 NFT Transaction Data
In the overall trend, the floor price shows a gradual decline. There is a significant increase in trading volume when major announcements are made or within a few days after the game’s launch. However, during the rest of the time periods, the trading volume is not optimistic.
2.4 $APE Consumption
In the first few days before the game’s launch, the number of daily recharge addresses and the total daily recharge amount experienced a significant surge, but later showed a continuous declining trend. The peak for the number of daily recharge addresses was reached on the third day, with 531 addresses, while the peak for the daily recharge amount occurred on the second day, with 24,436 APE.
We can observe that the enthusiasm of players was at its peak when the game was first launched, but it gradually declined afterward. From this, we can infer that the game’s mechanics and gameplay in the current first season might not be attractive enough to players, or perhaps many players are not yet accustomed to Yuga’s long-term development gameplay.
As of July 21st, at the end of the first season, there has been a total consumption of 241,765 APE, approximately equivalent to 520,000 USD. The total number of recharging addresses is 1,561, with an average of 155 APE recharged per address.
Among the top 100 recharging players, the first-ranked player recharged 8,893 APE, approximately equivalent to 20,000 USD. The second-ranked player recharged 6,235 APE, and the third-ranked player recharged 4,537 APE. From the data, it is evident that the spending power of the top players is considerable, and the game’s ability to generate revenue is quite impressive.
3. Season 2 Main Updates:
1. The theme of Season 2 is “Wet Hot Forge Summer,” with new floor tiles and decorations added, allowing you to transform your forge into a summer beach. The picture below shows the promotional image for the second season.
2. Adjustments have been made to the AMP levels determined by rankings. See the chart above for the relationship between ranking and AMP level. Legendary is still 133, and the other levels have changed, making the mechanism more favorable for players who join the game later.
3. Added rights for BAYC, MAYC, and BAKC holders, allowing them to claim corresponding decorations later in Season 2.
4. $APE Investing Analysis
From an investment perspective, the total supply of APE tokens is 1,000,000,000, with a circulating supply of 368,593,750. Currently, the largest inflation source for APE comes from the release of staking rewards, with 100,000,000 APE tokens (10% of the total supply) set to be released within the first year. As a result, APE still faces significant inflation at the moment.
In Yuga’s previous game, Dookey Dash, from the image below, we can see that APE tokens recharged by users were eventually transferred to Coinbase, indicating a possibility of selling pressure.
Although the APE receiving wallet for HV-MTL game has not shown any outgoing transactions yet, we can deduce that the recharged APE is highly likely to be eventually sold by the project team on the secondary market.
From the above text, we can also see that there are not many updates for Season 2. The core content is a change in theme style, and it doesn’t seem to boost APE recharging. Therefore, assuming that the recharging numbers remain similar to the first season for each season, which is approximately 240,000 APE, the total recharged APE by players over the 6 seasons will be around 1,440,000 APE. Based on the timeline, the 6 seasons would span around 4 months, ending in early November 2023. According to the Token Unlock data, at this time, the total circulating supply of APE will be around 560 million, and the recharged APE will only account for about 0.27% of the total circulating supply, which will have little impact on the overall circulation. Moreover, these recharged tokens might be sold.
Since the Otherside land sale, the token price has been continuously declining, and the market expects Yuga’s game layout to absorb the selling pressure generated from staking. Looking at the historical events of APE tokens, besides a short period of speculation and price increase after the release of Dookey Dash’s trailer, the price of APE has been steadily declining, even during the period when the Dookey Dash game was officially launched. HV-MTL, whether in the pre-launch phase or after the official launch, has not met the market’s expectations in consuming the staking selling pressure. Despite the game having some quality, it has made minimal impact on the demand for APE, and the recharged APE has not been burned or destroyed, making it more likely to be sold in the market. Therefore, we believe that APE is not currently a favorable investment target, and it still requires Yuga to empower APE further.
5. Closing Thoughts
The outcome of HV-MTL Season One was underwhelming, largely due to external market dynamics, particularly the current NFT landscape. The limited in-game utility of the $APE token might have also contributed to the game’s struggle to attract and retain players. The incentives provided to early participants weren’t enticing enough to spur substantial adoption, as evidenced by the floor price and transaction data from our Dune dashboard. Enhancing the in-game applications of $APE could help elevate its value, increase market visibility, and create more excitement around the game. Even though the game faced challenges, the high quality of the game, reflected in the game materials and intricate details, mirrors Yuga Labs’ high standards.
Looking ahead, we expect Yuga Labs to broaden the in-game utility of $APE and improve the game’s mechanics to attract more users. Given Yuga’s superior operational capacity and the potential for gameplay improvements, HV-MTL remains a promising prospect. As a result, we’ll keep a close eye on this engaging game’s progress.
Appendix
Declaration
The present report is an original work of @hyx88448868, @GryphsisAcademy trainee, under the mentorship of @CryptoScott_ETH. The author(s) alone bear the responsibility for all content, which does not essentially mirror Gryphsis Academy’s views or that of the organization commissioning the report. The editorial content and decisions remain uninfluenced by the readers. Be informed that the author(s) may own the cryptocurrencies mentioned in this report.
This document is exclusively informational and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. It is highly recommended that you undertake your own research and consult a neutral financial, tax, or legal advisor before making investment decisions. Keep in mind, the past performance of any asset does not guarantee future returns.
