February 2017: A Real Estate Valentine
The groundhog said six more weeks of winter, but spring (AKA the busy season) will be here before you know it. Read on for the inside scoop on the future of the real estate market and keep on reading to learn about some new design trends and exciting happenings around NYC, all to keep your winter doldrums at bay!
The Story: What Goes Around Comes Around (Every 18 Years)
The Jump Off
If you’re in the market to buy a home, it may seem that prices are inexplicably high while inventory is dreadfully low. And although you may be familiar with the law of supply and demand (like those rare Hamilton tickets going for thousands a pop!) what you may not realize is that there’s a method to all this madness.
Studies show that since the year 1800, we’ve been experiencing a steady 18-year real estate market rhythm of recessions, recoveries and expansion. The market peaked most recently back in 2006 then crashed in 2008 (remember Lehman Brothers?). During the recovery period, as people built their lives back up and demand rose, excess inventory was slowly absorbed. The problem? Supply cannot be created overnight. It takes five to seven years to bring new real estate inventory to market. This construction time-lag meant that at the onset of the expansion phase, as more people were accumulating wealth and looking to buy, there was more demand than supply. So prices went up. Gradually, as the expansion phase ends, demand will be satisfied and slow down. All those buildings under construction and still slated to come to market will create a new dynamic — a surplus inventory leading up to a softer market.
The Wrap Up
The data speaks for itself: New York City issued permits for 56,528 new dwelling units (19,742 of those were co-ops or condos) in 2015, a 176% increase over the prior year (and this after six consecutive years of increase). The 18-year cycle predicts 2024 to be the beginning of the next downturn. Can’t wait that long? Buy when it’s good for you. History shows us that what comes down will go up (and fast) so as long as you’re not flipping houses, real estate is almost always a safe investment.
The Conversation Cheat Sheet
What to do when you can’t afford to buy your Valentine the gift they really wanted…
Check out #19 on Crain’s list of ways to make money in real estate (hint, hint: Brooklyn). Best part? You can actually enjoy living there while you watch your asset grow.
There’s real estate, and then there’s real estate in New York City… you can just follow the money or also do the right thing. Click here and here to read about how some movers and shakers in the real estate world are getting political.
Want to be the real estate guru at your next dinner party? Take this quiz to see if you’re really in the know.
What to say to your old college roommate who’s still dressing like she’s in college…
Cover it up. And if you have ugly spots on the wall of your rental, you may want to do the same. Removable wall paper can be your new best friend.
Like to do a “sit test” before you buy a chair? You may never get up from this adorable marshmallow stool.
Like to work out surrounded by nature but live in the city? You could schlep your favorite plant to the gym, or just hop across the pond for a visit to this organic gym.
What to say to your coworker who’s petitioning to start Tequila Tuesdays at the office…
Mardi Gras is Tuesday, February 28! Here’s how to celebrate like you’re in the Big Easy, without ever leaving the Big Apple.
Dancing hippos? Oh yes. Check out the majestic fifteen foot tall ballerina hippo in Dante Park across from Lincoln Center (on display through July). For more of Bjorn Skaarup’s whimsical creatures, get to the Cavalier Gallery before February 17.
And February school break is coming. Check out Kids Week with the NYC Parks, or take the kids to see the Intrepid. Don’t have the time for this? Send the kiddos to a winter-break camp where they can dance, play chess, swim or do arts and crafts.
The Gabriele Moment
Here’s what I’ve been up to these past few weeks as I walk, bike and race between the bridges and the parks.
A Happy Two Years
When I think about the areas in my life that I’d like to work on, like anyone I can come up with a few things. But the challenge was to identify the change that would have the biggest impact for the better. For me, joining Compass two years ago has made an enormously positive impact on my life. My seven-year-old daughter, Keira, sums it up best: “Mom, you have a nice team, you love Robert Reffkin, and they make great parties!” Well, there you have it! I am eternally grateful for you, my clients and customers, for letting me be part of your journey, for all your kind words and recommendations year after year. And I’m thankful for the amazing support I’ve received from the Compass family, because pursuing excellence and showing compassion is not just a job, it’s a way of life.
They Said It
“Gabriele was a pleasure to work with from our first meeting to the close of our property. She is very professional and exceeded my expectations regarding her knowledge and attention to detail.” ~ A.F., Seller
Don’t take my word for it! Read more independent reviews of my services from members of Park Slope Parents.
In Case You Missed It
Compass inks deal for UWS office, its third in Manhattan | The Real Deal
How Top Realtor Gabriele Sewtz Does Food | Edible Manhattan