Softbank should invest in things that matter

Softbank plays a peculiar role when it comes to venture capital.
If you’re inclined to think positively of Softbank, you might feel that it’s a perfect example of early, forward-looking bets in a rapidly changing economy that leaves a necessary amount of “creative destruction” in its wake. And whenever you make bets like that, you’re bound to lose a few now and again.
If you’re inclined to think negatively of Softbank, you might feel that it’s a perfect example of venture capital gone wrong in the extreme; an investor with limitless capital propping up ‘disruptive’ startups and inflating massive valuations for companies that will become at best monopolies, and, at worst, wrecking balls of both jobs and pensions.
Neither viewpoint captures the unique opportunity that Softbank has to help reshape our economy for the better. Whether or not you believe that an organization like Softbank should be able to wield hundreds of billions of dollars to invest at will, they’re a reality in our current economic system. Despite having that power, it’s theoretically possible that Softbank and their ilk can be inspired, incentivized, or cajoled to pour their money into endeavors that build both a lasting legacy and a lasting civilization.
In Softbank’s case, there’s an argument to be made that now might be a good opportunity for a pivot.
Big bets on Uber and WeWork — two organizations with narcissistic leaders, questionable business models, nosediving popularity, and dubious motives — have led to a loss of $5 billion (and as much as $9 billion) this quarter, as Softbank scrambles to prop up the balloons it inflated too quickly. These bets were not only a gross miscalculation when seen as a business decision, but also a careless set of moves that, whether successful or unsuccessful, could have dire and systemic consequences on the social fabric through intended near-term automation (in the case of Uber) and real-estate monopolies (in the case of WeWork).
Softbank can and should spend the time taking a hard look at what it wants to create in this world. There is undoubtedly going to be a period of re-establishing financial credibility and business acumen. But the key question is, assuming the firm overcomes, which I’m sure it will: what is the move after that?
New technologies that can suck carbon out of the air at 400 ppm and transform it into base chemicals, or sequester nitrogen from agricultural activities at scale, are looking at a trillion-dollar opportunity. Addressing huge challenges with scalable solutions can have a lot of financial upside, even if extractive capitalism isn’t ultimately going to get us to where we want to be. Bill Gates is someone who seems to understand these opportunities, as did Steve Jobs when he talked about the future of Biotech.
Masayoshi Son, by most accounts, seems like a very intelligent and courageous person. If he is to insist on winning big within the current rules of the game, he might as well play a slightly longer game. There’s a legacy at stake, and also civilization.
