In 2008, the world changed (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, click here, and here, or try Googling “The Great Recession”).

That was September 2008. It’s now February 2014, and a lot of things have changed. The 3 P’s (Pundits, Professors and Professionals) have spoken extensively on the “Recovery” that has taken place in the United States following the single largest financial crisis the world has seen since 1929. (There are some who are more cynical, such as myself, that would argue that this crisis is far more dangerous than the Great Depression, but I’ll leave that controversial discussion for another day.) I’ve never really been fond of all these news about “decreasing unemployment” and “S&P500 hitting all time highs”, simply because, for the most part (in my own opinion), there’s a lot more to the story than what CNN and Bloomberg may be telling you.

If you’ve read my previous post on Quantitative Easing, you’ll find that I’m not the most optimistic chap when it comes to the Macroeconomy and the Financial Markets. I haven’t spoken to any psychologists about it yet, but I’m quite sure it’s because the little economist in me was born during The Great Recession. 2008-2009 was when I became fascinated by what was going on in the United States economy, and how it affected the world. My outlook now is similar to my outlook then; things look pretty lousy. Of course, talk is cheap (I actually have a t-shirt that says that on the front), so I’ve decided to supply some facts and figures here, in hopes that it will answer the question, “Why don’t you have more faith in the US and its economy?”

1. The United States’ public and private debt exceeds 250% of GDP. The United States GDP is somewhere around $16 trillion. You do the math. (McKinsey Global Institute)
2. We all know about “The 1% of America”. Income Inequality is getting worse. The 1%’s income share rose from 9 percent to 24 percent in 2007, and it declined by less than 3 percent following the first couple years of the crisis.
3. It is now one hundred times more expensive to bring a new medicine to the market than it was 60 years ago. It’s bureaucratic nonsense like this that hinders real reforms (economic or otherwise) from being made.
4. At the time this blog is being written, the US national debt is $17.3 trillion, which is about 107.5% times 2013's GDP.
5. There’s still $1.8 trillion sitting in the banks that nobody’s touching, for fear of more defaults.
6. Labor force participation is at the lowest since 1971. There’s a reason why those unemployment numbers are decreasing, but it has much less to do with job creation. Trust me.

There’s a lot more data out there that I could supply, I suppose, but I think this gets my message across. All this talk about the “recovering” economy”, “improving labor markets” and “stock market growth” bothers me, and here’s why (I’ll start backwards).

2013 was a great year for US Securities. Sure, that’s true. Up almost 30%; the greatest run-up in stocks we’ve seen in a long time. And just last week, we saw the S&P500 drop over 6%. And sure, you can argue that January is a bad time (historically) for stocks, but I think there’s a lot more to it than that. The stock market run-up last year was a grand illusion, and what we’re seeing now is the fancy light projectors behind the curtains. I don’t like using the word “bubble” for the connotation that bubbles often “pop”, so I’ll go with the image of air leaving a deflating balloon (the speed of which I cannot determine). Some stock prices are completely not justified; Twitter, SolarCity, Tesla, HP- to name a few. HP is my favorite; despite debt tripling over the past year, the stock price increased 75%. Are HP Printers the new “in” thing? Somebody explain that to me. January was just the beginning; we’re in for a tumultuous year ahead.

“Improved labor market conditions” has been the primary justification for the Fed to cut back QE to $65 billion. I don’t particularly mind that QE is slowing (I’ve been advocating for that for a while now) but I do mind the pace. Was one month of data enough to justify such a move? I’m not sure. What I am sure of is (harkening to my previous comment about labor force participation above), the number of jobs created and people employed is far less than what people think. There are 9 different levels of unemployment, and some of them tell very different stories to what you hear or read about in the news or on TV. Youth unemployment remains a concern, and while it isn’t as high as some European countries, it is still high enough to make me raise my eyebrow.

As for the “recovering” economy? I feel there’s much to be said, and if I can manage it, I will write extensively about this someday. For now, I’m just going to say the following: I don’t know how you, your professors, peers, parents, acquintances, associates or otherwise define “recovery”. A return to normalcy, perhaps, or an improvement in current economic conditions. If it is the latter, I don’t have much problem with it. If it is the former, however, I have serious contentions. This “financial crisis” was decades in the making; it didn’t just appear or “begin” in the early 2000's as some people believe, with the real estate housing “boom”, nor was it the infamous “CDO’s” and “CDS” that led to America’s (and by extension, the world economy’s) demise. We’re looking at generations of frivolous spending, weak public policy, and (perhaps most importantly) an ethos towards consumption that is extremely troubling. There’s still a long way to go.