You’ve written about this Bayesian approach in other comments/articles.
David Ng

I know exactly what you are talking about, since I’d been doing just that (which may be a bad thing). My bias was always to try to deliver the big shock, which may actually have been my undoing. Generally, I’d gotten very good results out of students who did not care for or like politics much (remember: I used to teach political science), but not the students who were politics buffs and spent a lot of time following it — which is exactly what you’d described in a slightly different context. This was probably a mistake on my part, but this, in turn, is the product of my own bias, being someone who never liked “politics” much and increasingly came to hate it, but became a political scientist because of the “(social) science” dimension.

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