Portsmouth FC — 23/24 Season Tactical Preview
Let’s embark on a deep-dive and overview of the possible tactical identity of Portsmouth Football Club during their 125th anniversary season.
Background
John Mousinho’s tenure at Portsmouth so far has seen a shift from the more transitional, pragmatic football of Danny Cowley, into a more ‘modern’ approach, with an emphasis on control, purposeful build-up, and numerical overloads.
The most obvious deviation from Cowley-ball was a move from the midfield two often seen utilised by Cowley (Normally a 4–4–2, or a 3–4–3), to a midfield three, with Mousinho’s preferred 4–3–3, and at times, 4–2–3-1. This allowed us to get the best out of our players, and granted us a level of control and balance we hadn’t previously seen, although it could be fairly argued that this lack of ‘chaos’ led to a bluntness in front of goal.
Form and performances started pretty well under Mousinho, although there were games we struggled, notably those against teams higher up in the table (this wasn’t as much of a problem with Cowley). The away games against Plymouth, Barnsley, and Peterborough stick out to me.
Then, around Easter, right when we had a genuine opportunity to push for the playoffs, the wheels fell off. We bottled it, fair and square. Would we have performed well in the playoffs? Hard to say, although I’d guess probably not, but that doesn’t mean we didn’t bottle it.
So where does this leave us? A huge, intelligent squad rebuild led by Sporting Director, Rich Hughes, has delivered us a squad that on paper, has the potential to be a real force in League One, and has provided us the opportunity to do some real damage and win promotion in our seventh straight year in the third tier of English football.
Before we take a dive into the nuances and details of our possible tactical identity this season, its important to note that some of what I predict, is unlikely to happen, and that’s fine. This article will use quotes by Mousinho, our identity last season, the signings and outgoings over the summer, details I’ve noticed in pre-season games, and popular tactical trends that may be applied. There’ll also be some concepts that haven’t been seen under Mousinho, but I personally believe could be utilised, as well as mixing in the type of football I like to see.
In the diagrams contained within the article, dashed arrowed lines depict movements with or without the ball, and solid arrowed lines depict passes or shots.
Recruitment
An entire article could be devoted to dissecting our recruitment this summer, and maybe I’ll write one at the end of the transfer window, who knows?
Going into the summer, most of the business we needed to do needed to add to our in-possession strategies, and ultimately, goalscoring. Our out-of-possession structures were already solid, we were defensively one of the best sides in the division under Mousinho, but we didn’t score enough goals, and we drew too many games.
The key, overarching attributes I believe we’ve targeted this summer at technical security, press resistance, and counter-pressing capability. Mousinho has spoken a lot about wanting a side that presses aggressively, but also intelligently. Across the season as a whole, we had a PPDA of 11.8 (The Analyst), the 12th highest in the division. PPDA is essentially just a metric that displays how high a team presses, the lower the number, the better the press. Mousinho will want that number to be much lower this season.
“We wanted an aggressive press and we just felt it really suited him (Bernard) to come in and man-mark Leko, which he did a brilliant job of.” — John Mousinho
On the other side of the ball however, Mousinho wants his side to dominate the ball, and play out of the back. In order to do this, you need a strong level of technical security, and also game intelligence, and the ability to adapt and think on your feet.
“It’s a mixture of being pragmatic, and also trying to dominate possession” — John Mousinho
In terms of recruitment trends though, we’ve seen a revamp in the way we target players. One change is how we’ve seemingly put more stock in data from the 12–24 months prior to the signing, rather than just the immediate past. The signing that best represents this is Anthony Scully, who came off the back of a really disappointing year with Wigan; multiple managers, a club in financial dire straights, and a hernia problem. But the years before that he was an absolute killer at League One level for Lincoln.
Naturally, there’s a risk with this, just because a player had a strong few years in the past, doesn’t necessarily mean they can recapture that magic for their new club. However, intelligent recruitment is all about calculated risks, that’s how you gain the edge in the transfer market.
To round this section out, the one profile we’re crying out for is either a creative attacking midfielder, or a ball-carrying 8 who can progress the ball forward and create opportunities further up the pitch. The player I’d put forward if we want a creative attacking midfielder would be Cambridge United’s Jack Lankester, and the ball-carrying 8 I’d suggest is Jay Matete on loan from Sunderland.
Build-up
One first phase build-up strategy we’ve seen in pre-season (especially in the Gosport Borough game, hence the line-up) is an initial 2–4–4 shape, with Pack and Morrell rotating between the second and last line. Pack also often acted as the primary receiver to take the ball off of the backline, dropping between the opposition front two and then receiving on his back-foot before turning out and playing forward - attempting to break the second line.
Scully and Mottoh held the widest possible starting positions, before then attacking the fullback directly, both with and without the ball. They often had to do a lot of channel running when we couldn’t break their first line, so opted to playing directly instead. Folarin pinned their right centre back and occupied the right half-space, and at times dropped between the midfield and backline.
We did tend to struggle to break their first line when their front two shadowed our CBs, and our double pivot. This problem continued into the Havant friendly, which indicates it’s more of a structural problem rather than a personnel issue. This’ll obviously be worked on in training and in games, so I expect this to be ironed out eventually. To combat this in the Gosport & Havant games, we often attempted to go direct instead which didn’t create much threat. Another method we employed was to have our centre backs step-in and carry the ball out, which Towler seemed to do well.
We saw a continuation of our centre backs and goalkeeper placing their studs on the ball to bait the press. This is a principle seen prevalently in sides coached by De Zerbi, but is also seen in futsal at times and is a way for players to communicate with each other through movements of the ball with their feet. From a tactical perspective however, placing your studs on the ball is an antagonistic measure essentially inviting a disjointed press from the opposition, which can then be played around with a wall pass to access the pivot players.
As discussed previously, Josh Dockerill and Liam Vincent were used at times to indirectly access the pivot players via a wall pass. Dockerill was very happy to do this, often vocally commanding the ball, as well as displaying positive body orientation for reception. We saw a similar pattern to this drilled in pre-season, with Shaughnessy combining with Mousinho, then playing straight back out to the wide man (Rafferty) who then received on his back-foot, and punched a ball out to the far side.
Once the first line of pressure has been broken, and we’ve transitioned from the first to second third, one shape we may move to is a Bielsa-esque 3–3–1–3, with Pack dropping between the centre-backs, Lowery making a swooping run from the last line into the opposition midfield, and Morrell looking for indirect access via a wall pass.
Timing and tempo is vital here, all these movements, relationships and actions have to be spot on and perfectly drilled. Pass too early and the opposition are in a settled shape so can prevent penetration, pass too late and it can be a similar problem. There needs to be sacrifice too, with players making decoy runs to drag markers away, or actions (such as studs on the ball) that invite a disorganised press from the opposition that can then be exploited.
“Keeping the ball, being patient, switching it, playing out from the back” — John Mousinho
The centre-backs need to be sharp however, as teams using an out-of-possession midfield three can have their 8s jump out to press the outside centre-backs when a pass is in motion to them, so need to be calm under pressure, and the ability to think quickly to break the press.
In my view, most in-possession structures should ask the same question. How do we break each line of opposition pressure? One method could be for the fullback to combine with Morrell, before then playing a ball over the top for Lane/Scully to attack. This’d work particularly well on the right flank due to Swanson’s technical security & mobility, and Lane’s ability to beat his marker, just look at some of the later games of last season for this.
This next pattern of play would work well when Kamara [7] was on the pitch, due to his ability to drop off the last line and receive from deeper players. This involves Pack [6] having the ball centrally, and Morrell [8], Towler [5], and Bishop [9] making sacrificial runs to open up the channel to Kamara. This is slightly risky however, as teams could either stay in their shape and ignore the decoy runs, or be quick enough to react to the movements. To add an extra level of disguise, Pack can appear to play a ball to his right, but instead hit a reverse pass up to Kamara, although that is obviously more difficult.
One method we can employ vs a 4–4–2 when our [8] has a speed advantage over his marker and the opposition fullback. If our right back [2] and our centre forward [9] can pin the opposition right winger and left centre-back, Lane can then make a decoy run to drag the left back inside whilst our [8] makes the opposite run to get on the end of a long ball behind the opposition fullback.
For more ideas and analysis of build-up patterns in a 3–3–1–3, I highly recommend the book ‘Football In A Pandemic’ by Portsmouth PDP coach, Sam Hudson. There’s a brilliant section on Leeds’ build-up under Marcelo Bielsa that’s well worth a read!
Chance creation
As touched on previously, our biggest issue last season was scoring goals, plain and simple. This was reflected in our goals scored column, but also in terms of xG (open-play xG of 30.54, 31 open-play goals scored) — The Analyst. This displays that we weren’t unlucky, or it was a fluke, but it was in fact a genuine issue for the majority of the 2022/23 campaign.
Below, I’ll touch on four patterns of play we could utilise to supply our frontline and increase our goal output, and I’ll also discuss one of our biggest issues over the last few years, playing against low-blocks.
Sparkes/Swanson should be holding width at all times in-possession, regardless of the location of the defender they’re facing up. We can use this pattern in the even of the opposition block crunching the pitch to one side. In the event of this we should look to switch the play to find the opposite fullback before crashing the box to follow a cross.
“Switch the ball, make sure that we’re very creative, and essentially, play attacking football” — John Mousinho
This would involve Swanson playing to Poole/Pack in the central areas, who then quickly switch the ball over to the opposite flank, where Sparkes would then drive with the ball until he’s able to cross the ball into the box for the front three to meet.
If Swanson/Sparkes can antagonise his man to come out and duel him 1 v 1, he can then pass to Morrell/Lowery who can then slip a ball between the centre back and fullback for Lane/Scully to run onto, subsequently playing a low cross for Bishop to attack. Similarly with all the principles we’ve discussed today, timing and tempo is key, Swanson has to wait for the exact moment the defender overcommits, otherwise the distances won’t allow for the pattern to be executed.
If the wingback sits off the fullback holding width, Swanson/Sparkes can drive at the defender before passing back to Lowery/Morrell in the half-space, then crossing from deep into the box for Scully/Lane and Bishop to attack. As ever, timing, tempo and movement are the key, it won’t work otherwise, the cross has to be swung in with precision, and pace, otherwise the opposition has time to readjust to win the duel, or the ball is too fast and misses our attackers.
One issue we often had under Danny Cowley, and also under Mousinho (a mixture of the personnel, and perhaps the coaching), we were so toothless when coming up against low-blocks, we just couldn’t score against them. So I pose an idea, lets get as many opposition players defending their box as humanly possible. This isn’t a new or revolutionary idea by any means, but the personnel we’ll employ to do this will be a slight shift to what we’ve seen recently.
Paddy Lane [7] should play in midfield against low-blocks. He’s probably our best ball-striker from range, and has the ability to shoot first time, or set himself with a touch before shooting. Our aim should be to lure as many opposition players into their box as possible, and then pull them apart to create gaps for out ball-strikers on the edge of the box. It may also be an idea to play Swanson [8] in midfield for this too, as he’s also shown an ability to strike the ball from range. The best line-up vs low-blocks would likely be a 4–3–3 with the following personnel: Norris, Rafferty, Poole, Shaughnessy, Sparkes, Pack [6], Lane [7], Swanson [8], Whyte, Bishop, Scully. Scully is also an option to take up the ‘swanson-slot’ due to his ball-striking from range, so that’s another thing to bare in mind.
This is a tactic Manchester City employed to great success lately, with Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri being consistent and strong ball-strikers from range. Although there’s obviously a huge gulf in quality between Portsmouth and Manchester City, I believe it’s a principle that can be successfully applied, providing the line-up is correct, and ball-strikers are put in the correct locations.
Pressing opposition goal kicks
Although I’m not sure we’ll see this set-up this season, as it can be relatively risky, and not often used, it’d be a really intelligent way of pressing in an efficient way vs teams that build-up with a single pivot, and the rotations between shapes would be relatively quick and fluid. The obvious risk to this however is that our fullbacks will be 1 v 1, and even possibly 2 v 1 with the opposition winger and fullback, so there has to be a really intelligent use of cover shadows and distances.
Our [8], [7], and [9] have to choose the exact moment to jump out to their midfielders and pivot, otherwise we can be played around and pulled apart with ease.
Some sides may seek to use their keeper as a +1 in their build-up, similar to how we try to build-up from the back. If this happens, our press in the final third should be more passive and drop into the mid-block earlier. This is because they want us to press and open up gaps to play around, so why fall into this trap and give them exactly what they want?
The key detail here is being disciplined, and forcing them to either go long, where they’re man-to-man with our backline, or play into the pockets in midfield, where we can be aggressive and strong in the counter-press to create turnovers. This suits our squad profile, and negates the traps they’re trying to force us into, as I said before though, this requires patience and discipline, as if we jump into a disorganised press, we will be punished for it.
Pressing traps
One pressing trap we can employ would be to lock off the left side of the pitch, and funnel teams down our right-side. This requires a few things however; Poole [5], Swanson [2], and Devlin [7] will all need to play, the reason for this is that they're all very good in defensive duels, and eat up transitions.
“We want to have a real identity of how we’re going to press, and how we’re going to close down. It’s going to be aggressive, it’s going to be front-footed, we’re going to be intense, and we’re going to be fit.” — John Mousinho
We’d set up in a 4–3–3 shape from their goal kick, going man-to-man across most of their half of the pitch, but leaving two players unmarked, to give them the option of playing into the congested, overloaded side of the pitch. You’ll notice the coverage is very narrow, essentially just the width of the box, again, this is designed to tempt them into playing into either their [3], where Swanson and Devlin can jump out to press, or to their [5] where we can collapse our press on that corner and force a transition. The distances need to be close, in order to allow for an efficient and aggressive counter-press, this is obviously risky, but the upside allows for more transitions in midfield.
The risk however, is that we need to jump out for press at the right time, the [9] and [11] need to curve their runs at the right moment, and the remainder of the side all need to pin their man and keep them fixed. Swanson and Devlin should jump out to press at the exact point where the opposition [4] fires the pass out to [3], and the rest of the team should be ready to shift the block over and lock off that side of the pitch. At that point it essentially becomes a small-sided game where the blues overload the reds. From this point we can either directly attack the goal, or reorganise back into our shape and suffocate the opposition with possession of the ball.
Rest defence
The term ‘rest defence’ refers to the structure when in-possession, that is designed to provide cover whilst you have the ball, in order to prevent and mitigate the risk of a counter-attack. This is vital as it provides a level of security even when you have the ball, being proactive, rather than reactive to transitional moments. Within this section of the article I’ll go into detail on the different rest defence structures we can use, and the personnel that’d fit each shape.
If we chose to employ a 3–1 structure, Morrell is our best bet for being the midfielder sitting ahead of the backline. This is due to him being mobile, comfortable in possession, and happy to chip-in defensively. This is one of the riskier rest-defence structures due to only having a single midfielder ahead of the defence, so I’d only really expect to see it when we have a strong qualitative superiority over the opposition.
In my opinion, a seemingly big influence on Mousinho’s football has been Jurgen Klopp. Klopp’s Liverpool of 2018–2020 employed a 2–3 rest defence structure that saw the midfield three sit in front of the back two, recycling possession and being involved in counter-pressing moments to win transitions. This suits our squad profile, as we have a lot of midfielders who excel in the counter-press, the best combination for this would be: Devlin, Stevenson, and Morrell.
The rest defence structure I believe we’ll settle on however is a 3–2, with our 6 dropping between the two centre backs, and the two 8s screening ahead, offering opportunities to recycle possession if we need to switch play, or change up the dynamics. It’s also more of a seamless transition from the 2–4–4 to the 3–3–1–3 to end up in a 3–2–5. Again, Morrell suits being one of the screening pivots, but we don’t really have another midfielder who’s perfect for this. One solution might be having Swanson invert from the right into midfield, although this is easier said than done, his experience in midfield will help with going from a 180° game to a 360° game.
Mid-block
When our press break down, or a side uses their keeper as a +1 in build-up, our best bet is to fall back into a 4–4–2 mid-block. This would involve clogging up the central channel with a 6 v 4 overload, and going 1 v 1 with our full backs and wingers. Scully and Bishop would be responsible for screening the opposition pivot, with the intention of forcing the play out wide, and making the opposition play a ‘U’ shape with the ball.
One important detail in the personnel in each slot is dependant on who plays as the right-hand 8 within the nominal 4–3–3. Morrell is comfortable defending wide areas, so can shift from being the left-sided 8 to being the left-midfielder, whilst Scully pushes up alongside Bishop to form a front two.
As discussed though, the right-sided 8 is the key area. If Lowery plays, he needs to be kept centrally, due to him not excelling at defending wide areas, which would see Lane as the right-midfielder. If Devlin plays however, he is comfortable defending those wide areas, so he can shift along to become the right-midfielder, while Lane forms the front two with Bishop.
One possible weakness of our squad profile however is if the opposition crunch the pitch and go long from goal kicks. There’s quite a few players in our squad that aren’t the strongest aerially, such as Regan Poole, so we’ll either have to make some line-up tweaks to accommodate for this, or be bold and tweak our structures in order to ‘protect’ some of the less aerially dominant players.
Which is where Sean Raggett comes into the equation. For what he lacks in ball-playing ability and 1 v 1 defending against certain profiles of attacker, he makes up for with incredible aerial dominance. So the question needs to be asked, should he be moved on in order to bring in another ball-playing centre back, or should he be kept on in order to play against direct teams that will look to bully our less aerially dominant defenders. Then there’s obviously his set-piece threat, when put within the correct structure and routines, he is an absolute monster from corners and free-kicks, which can get you over five extra goals a season if done correctly.
Summary
So, we’re here, we’ve reached the end of this mammoth article. Before I summarise the piece with a lovely bowtie and a cherry on top, I just want to say how proud I am of this article, and all the content I’ve published recently. And I’d like to thank you all for the genuinely insane growth over the summer transfer window, hopefully we can carry that form into the season and beyond!
Our biggest strengths this season will likely like in our build-up, intensity, and organisation. With a squad full of tactically-intelligent pressing monsters who have the ability to carry out Mousinho et al’s. vision, and execute a brand of football that combines ideas from different elite coaches, whilst putting our own spin on things.
My worry however lies in the fact we currently don’t have that creative midfielder we’re currently looking for, although there are rumours we’re in the hunt for Tino Anjorin, so let’s see how that plays out. Another possible worry is our lack of aerial dominance in defence, Sean Raggett is obviously the outlier with this, and if he was to leave we may have cause for concern when coming up against physical, direct sides. Although Conor Shaughnessy is also very solid aerially.
Overall, I’m incredibly optimistic about the upcoming season. Our recruitment has been, in my opinion, one of the best in the division, and we have a head coach who excites me a lot. John Mousinho has the potential to deliver not only an exciting brand of football, but also the genuine possible to finally achieve promotion out of League One, on what will be a historic anniversary season for the club.
Thank you so much for reading to this far, it’s been such a pleasure writing this over the last month or so, and I can’t wait to get back watching Portsmouth play competitive football.
Up the blues!
