The Four (Somewhat) Noble Truths of Common Knowledge

The Buddha’s Four Noble Truths are fundamentally distressing — yet, the more deeply one reconciles oneself to them, the more it becomes possible to respond to life in a mature, peaceful, and compassionate way.

The Four Somewhat-Noble Truths of Common Knowledge are presented with a similar intent — they may seem distressing or burdensome, but the more we align our knowledge creation institutions with them, the more humanity will create common knowledge that produces lasting fruits.

1. We have no choice but to believe something

Humans aren’t born possessing the answers to nearly anything at all, so in order to navigate the world, we have to fill in the gaps between what we can know for sure (which is essentially nothing) using our best guess for the moment. Without at least temporarily committing to a belief about whether the sun will come up tomorrow, for example, we are incapable of taking action.

2. We have no choice but to use our own judgment based on limited information

While there are many so-called “authorities” in the world, they are all comprised of humans, who are all equally inadequate to the task of defining reality on our behalf. Given we must believe something in order to act, and we usually have very limited information about what to believe, we must decide how to interpret our own particular set of limited information as best we can. There is no avoiding this responsibility — Even when we outsource this function to a trusted authority or person, we are choosing to do so based on our best judgment.

3. Beliefs are investments

Whenever we make a decision about what to believe, we are wagering that our decision will profit us more — via money, social approval, happiness, or some other metric — than its alternatives.

Our actions testify outwardly to our beliefs, and when we take actions large or frequently enough, it constitutes a large wager. If we change our minds about a belief that has caused us to act in large, public ways, we must pay the sunk cost of having been publicly wrong. This can feel unbearably humiliating, and can cause psychic trauma if forced against one’s will.

Despite the inevitability of being mistaken given we have 1) no choice but to believe something, and 2) no choice but to use our own judgment to make sense of limited information, being mistaken seems to come with an incredibly high psychic cost.

With such a high psychic cost to changing our minds, it’s no wonder we often choose “default” on that psychic cost by stubbornly digging in and denying we ought to pay it, lashing ourselves ever more tightly to beliefs (and therefore actions) that no longer truly serve us.

4. Information manipulation is market manipulation

Given we have no choice but to believe something, and we have no choice but to use our own judgment given limited information, influencing the information we do have changes the decisions we make about what to believe, and in turn how to act. Given our actions tend to have an effect on the world, especially when taken collectively, that in some way registers on the supply/demand curve of some market somewhere, to influence beliefs is to influence markets.

Conclusion: The Point

That last point may seem obvious, but this connection is in no way baked into the public perception of markets. One effect of creating a marketplace for beliefs that it makes explicit the connection between information manipulation and financial gain.

This connection creates suspicion of all viewpoints, as every competing opinion could be a scam trying to profit by fooling us. This leads to the realization of Somewhat-Noble Truth 3, that we each must use our own judgment, and cannot rely on authorities with vested interests to define reality for us.

Another key effect of belief markets is reducing the psychic cost of changing our minds. Having a financial interest in a belief forces one to be constantly prepared to change one’s mind, studying the competition and prevailing trends in order to manage risk, as one does with stocks. This helps us put aside the psychic costs (“what people will think of me if I admit I was wrong,” etc.) and transforms changing one’s mind from a social failure into a business necessity.

With everybody resolutely using our own judgment, we can begin to invest more sustainably in beliefs.