Highlighted by Harrius Haller

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What does all of it mean for the daily geopolitics and geoeconomics? The polarization of the Global System based on a possible system bipolarity between the U.S. and China, followed by intensifying dynamics at regional level in the form of multiple and various actors’ constellations is most likely to further evolve in 2018. It also means that the polarization at system, regional, and national level will increase through the interplay of centrifugal forces. This will create more speed and uncertainty than ever often challenging the actors with either-or decisions. Old competitors are becoming partners again (US-India, China-Russia, Russia-Turkey) and stable alliances begin to crumble (e.g. US-NATO, US-European allies, US-Pakistan, BRICS). The decisive moment will be, however, the systemic constellation between the US, China, and Russia, and how it will evolve and impact whole regions. My prognoses from the last few years have been correctly pointing to the Dragonbear as the main systemic challenge for the U.S. When Trump became the new president a year ago, it seemed like the U.S. would be ready to take concrete measures to break the Dragonbear by entering a partnership with the weaker part of it — Russia. Now that this scenario has been dismissed, Washington would have to face China’s rise and the Dragonbear’s consolidation simultaneously. In this regard, India will become the key free rider in Asia, which will affect the geopolitical balance by entering alliances with either US (most likely), Russia (still good partnership), or China (least likely).