Upstream

Dr. Hashim AlZain

17 min readOct 9, 2020

Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen!

by Dan Heath

Reactive vs. Proactive Responses

So often in life, we find ourselves stuck in a cycle of responses where we put-out more fires than preventing them from happening in the first place! We find ourselves dealing with emergencies more often than growing our organizations. We remain stuck Downstream because we handle one problem after another in an endless and vicious cycle of putting-out one fire after the other. Interestingly enough, we never make our way towards Upstream to fix the System that caused the problems to occur in the first place! So why do our efforts skew so heavily toward Reaction instead of Prevention?

Upstream explores the psychological forces that push us Downstream; including “Problem Blindness”, which can leave us oblivious to serious problems in our environment that is brewing underneath the surface. The objective behind this book is to figure-out how to overcome these obstacles and more by shifting our mindset to an Upstream approach to problem solving (Growth Mindset). This book summary will deliver practical solutions for preventing problems instead of simply reacting to them. How many problems in our personal or professional lives are we tolerating simply because we’ve overlooked that we can fix them at their root?

Upstream VS. Downstream

To help explain the concept of this book more vividly (Upstream vs. Downstream Approaches), I will tap into my imagination and contrast the stark difference between the approach of “saving the day” that Superman uses vs. what Batman does! This approach will help us draw parallels and identify key differences between both approaches, which will help us better understand the pros and cons of Upstream vs. Downstream thinking.

Downstream approach reacts to problems after they’ve occurred, while Upstream approach aims to prevent problems from happening in the first place! Upstream approach looks at systemic factors that influence the mushrooming of problems into even bigger problems. Organizations have a natural tendency towards Downstream thinking because it’s more tangible and is often rewarded. Firefighting is valued much more than preventing them because it’s easier to see and consequently measure. The key for leadership is to shift their focus from Downstream to Upstream Thinking, which is where this book will come into play by attempting to articulate the differences between both approaches.

Ever wondered why Superman is more popular than Batman in pop culture? It’s a fact that Superman was created first in 1938, where Batman came later-on in 1939, but that’s beside the point! Imagine if you were Superman, I think you’d agree that it’s much easier to say, “I’ve arrested this man” instead of saying, “I’ve spent the whole day watching over the city trying to catch bank robbers before they hit their next target.” Wouldn’t you say that it sounds like something Batman would say?

Could it be that Superman’s popularity is attributed to his ability to be the one who saves the day in broad daylight & receive recognition and admiration by many people, whereas Batman lurks in the shadows and tries to prevent crime from ever happening in the first place? Is Batman’s stealth mode make his effort invisible to most people who’re benefiting from his efforts; directly or indirectly?

Here is where it gets interesting: How can you detect problems before they’ve even occurred? How can you measure success when success is defined as things that don’t happen? Is our perception to call on “Superman” in our department just the easiest way to put-out fires (Downstream thinking)? Or is it our desperation of hoping that the “Batman” in our department has done his job of watching over us and preventing problems from ever happening in the first place (Upstream thinking)?

What makes Batman so elusive is that he detects problems early on, targets leverage points in complex Systems, finds reliable ways to measure success, pioneers new ways of working together with other members of the Justice League, and embeds their success into the System to give them insight into what might happen before it does. So, what are the real differences between Upstream & Downstream approaches to problem-solving, and is one better than the other?

While we have a wide spectrum of available options to address our problems, we’ve mostly confined ourselves to one narrow bandwidth of the spectrum: the frequency of Response & Reaction. Downstream approach deals with problems after they’ve occurred & the efforts are narrow, fast, and tangible. The need for heroism at organizations is usually evidence to their system failure due in large parts to their diluted efforts when firefighting instead of focusing on growth. On the other hand, Upstream approach deals with problems before they’ve even occurred, and the efforts are usually broader, slower, and hazier, but when it works; it really works! Success comes when the right things happen by default in an organic manner, NOT because of individual heroism. So, are we dealing with a case of Proactive vs. Reactive approach to problem-solving?

So often in life, we get stuck in a cycle of responses of putting out fires one after the other in vicious cycle of never-ending responses! We stay Downstream when we handle one problem after another, but we never make our way Upstream to fix the “System” that caused the problems to occur in the first place! Cops chase robbers, doctors treat patients with chronic diseases, and call-centers address customer complaints. All reactive responses, but crime, chronic disease, and customer complaints are preventable! If that’s the case, why do our efforts skew heavily towards Reaction instead of Prevention? Simple, because Downstream approach is Easier to Measure!

There is a false perception about problems that if you can’t measure them, they’re either not important or don’t exist! Here are some attributes of Downstream Thinking, which can be thought of as the “Superman Approach”:

Reactive Response
Easy to See
Easy to Measure
Think in Isolation

In contrast, here are the attributes for Upstream Thinking, which can be thought of as the “Batman Approach”:

Proactive Response
Can’t See the Impact
Require an Understanding of the Purpose
System Thinking

The 3 Barriers to Upstream Thinking

There are 3 barriers to Upstream Thinking that we need to consider as we try to shift our focus from Downstream to Upstream:

1. Problem Blinders (I Don’t See the Problem!)

When we don’t see a problem, we can’t solve it! This is the belief that negative outcomes are inevitable and can’t be avoided, like the weather, because why look Upstream if you can’t do anything about it? This is arguably the most crippling barrier to Upstream Thinking. Problem Blinders mean that “I don’t see the problem” or “This problem is inevitable!” The lack of ownership, though, means that the parties who are capable of addressing the problem are saying: “That’s NOT mine to fix!”

Here are some key attributes to Problem Blinders:

The belief that negative-outcomes are inevitable
Accepting the status quo is the only way to go
Don’t question things because that would rock the boat
Focus on doing instead of asking because that would get you in trouble

2. Lack of Ownership (The Problem isn’t Mine to Fix!)

When a problem happens, those responsible ask questions like: “Can’t someone fix this problem?” instead of asking: “Can we fix this problem?” Even when the problem is identified with real data, those in positions to design and implement solution often deflect or deny it to avoid any possibility of taking-on the blame. Sometimes politics or bottom-line interests get involved, and management simply act in their own self-interest. Other times, there is no clear line of authority to guide a solution, and people are not sure if they can legitimately take-on additional responsibilities.

Here are some key attributes to the Lack of Ownership:

It’s not my problem & I don’t care
Conflict of interest (favoring personal interest over that of the organization)
Psychological standing on challenging the status quo
Complacency & being comfortable with things the way they are today

3. Tunneling (I Can’t Deal with the Problem Right Now!)

Tunneling is a concept where someone’s focus is strictly geared towards quick fixes, which can negatively impact the work environment. Quick fixes are things like regularly using supplies from another department, taking painkillers to ignore the symptom of an illness, or consistently relying on credit to support an unsustainable lifestyle. Time and resource scarcity can lead to procrastinating on less urgent things in life, which does not make the problem go away. In fact, ignoring the problem can lead to it mushrooming out of control.

Here are some key attributes to Tunneling:

Little problems mask bigger ones and are usually discovered when it’s too late (becomes a fire!)
Problem-Owner reverts to quick fixes
Problem-Owner uses scarce resources (time & manpower) as excuses to not doing anything
Falling in love with the cycle or process because it’s somewhat predictable

7 Questions for Upstream Leaders

Once you’ve managed to overcome the 3 Barriers to Upstream Thinking, there are 7 key questions to ensure that you are staying on the path towards addressing Root-Cause issues (Upstream Thinking — Batman Approach). Here are the 7 questions that upstream visionary leaders should ask themselves:

How to unite the right people?
How will the system change?
Where to find the point of leverage?
How to get early-warnings of the problems?
How will success be measured?
How to avoid doing harm?
Who will pay for what does not happen?

Now, each of the 7 questions will be addressed separately to help guide visionary leaders towards adopting an Upstream approach to problem-solving.

1. How to Unite the Right People?

You need to surround the problem by attracting the right people with a shared common goal to address all aspects and dimensions of the problem at hand. The core team needs to be strategically selected by attracting the right people who can collectively come-together to find creative solutions instead of passing the buck onto the next person! If you don’t have the luxury of choosing the people you need, try to conduct a thorough skill-set assessment exercise with the team you’ve inherited to match their strengths with what the job requires; especially if their strengths are not what’s on their résumés!

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the first question:

Have a clear vision & articulate it with a sense of Purpose.
Surround the problem by phrasing the problem in the form of an open-ended question that allows you to wrap your hands around the problem.
Identify clear roles & responsibilities with measurable performance indicators (if measurement indicators are not straight forward, consider alternative factors).
Meet the team briefly & periodically to gauge the level of performance; NOT to reprimand or punish.
Use a structured approach to solve the problem that is both written and understood by the team.

2. How Will the System Change?

Regardless of the size and scope of the problem, assessing and changing the System that created the problem in the first place can be complex and time-consuming. Regardless of whether the issue is financial liquidity, resource scarcity, market share, equality and opportunity, or a global pandemic, the point is to commit to changing the System for the long-haul. This is by far the hardest thing to do; especially in large organizations, but it’s the most pressing. This can only be justified to upper management if the problem can be articulated in financial terms (Profit & Losses).

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the second question:

Systems are the source of information & should be questioned or challenged.
Modify the environment as a starting point to accommodate for productive & sustainable change.
Spark courage by tapping into feeling & emotions of your team by articulating the problem’s effects and consequent impact on them personally.
Empower & motivate people by aligning their goals with that of the organization & tether the company’s loss with that of theirs.
Change takes time, so patience is required for leaders to make a dent in the system.

3. Where to Find the Point of Leverage?

Upstream thinking often means fumbling your way forward by figuring-out what works and what doesn’t and under what conditions. That’s why you need to develop a healthier relationship with Failure & Anxiety, so that you can handle the pressure of working with ambiguity. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but it also means that even a defeat can be considered a victory because every time you fail; you end-up learning something new about yourself, your team, and the situation!

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the third question:

Get closer to the source of the problem to identify where the money could be saved (leave the comfort of your office).
Identify risks & opportunity factors and reflect them in financial terms.
Perform a cost-benefit analysis to articulate hidden costs.
Take it step-by-step using a phased-based approach to integrate new strategies into existing systems.
Accept failure as a learning process towards success (fail fast & early to learn how to develop & improve).

4. How to Get Early-Warnings of the Problems?

An early warning System of a problem gives you greater ability to resolve it before it mushrooms into an even bigger problem! The value of early warning signals depends on the severity of the problem itself. Employing sensors might not be needed for small lightbulbs, but it may be very valuable if that bulb’s function is essential for safety, such as, at the top of a CNC machine on an assembly line. With the rise of Internet-of-Things (IoT), our world will be stocked with sensors! While tech can certainly aid our early-detection efforts, sometimes the best sensors are not devices but people or low-tech sensors that don’t need to break the bank.

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the fourth question:

Evaluate the environment & deploy “Sensors — Smoke Detectors” to integrate an early-warning system that reflects the health of your system.
Look for predictors in your environment to avoid catastrophic System failure.
Estimate the time required to act beforehand instead of after the fact.
Become aware of false positives to avoid derailing yourself from being on track.
Rely on digital information to implement rapid response & leverage the use of technologies to make things better, faster, and cheaper.
Understand the consequences of your actions & implications in financial terms (the only way management would give you their time of the day).

5. How will Success be Measured?

Success is not always self-evident with Upstream approach to problem-solving. That’s because there is a risk of “Ghost Victories,” which is a superficial success that cloaks failure! Upstream effort, unlike Downstream, isn’t wonderfully tangible because success isn’t always self-evident; especially when trying something that hasn’t been done before. Always try to balance between quantitative and qualitative measures.

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the fifth question:

Use “Sensors” in your system to indicate performance that you could measure.
Ask “W” questions (inquisitive open-ended questions & not binary yes-or-no questions).
Use long-term measuring indicators to give you insight on how to make long-term decisions.
Align change with the organization’s Purpose along with each department’s Purpose, and if you’re clever, also with your team’s Purpose.
Pilot the idea & test it before launching in its final form.

6. How to Avoid Doing Harm?

Sometimes when you move Upstream to solve problems, there is a very high probability that you’ll get it wrong the first couple of times! Zoom-out, then pan from side-to-side, and then zoom back in, and then ask yourself: How does it affect the whole System? Can we create closed feedback loops so that we can improve things quickly? Some trial-and-error is fine, just make sure that you change your process if you begin to do harm.

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the sixth question:

See the whole system & look beyond the immediate short-term results.
Partial & whole convergence is a System approach in gradual stages of adoption, so be patient.
Develop an integrated feedback loop to improve the System & adopt to unexpected changes in the market.
Develop a Continuous-Improvement System & culture that can self-correct it’s course as variables change.

7. Who Will Pay for What Does NOT Happen?

We can pay to fix problems once they happen, or we can pay in advance to prevent them, but how to convince management to pay for what would not happen? Paying for Upstream efforts boils down to three questions:

Where are the costly problems?
Who is in the best position to prevent those problems from reoccurring?
How do you create incentives to rally people behind you?

This means that you need to polish your negotiation skills to make people care about what will not happen!

Here are some things to consider as you start answering the seventh question:

You need to pay money to make money, so align incentives with that of the organization.
Identify the source of cost hemorrhaging in your System by assessing it from different perspectives.
Identify who can prevent the problem from reoccurring in the future.
Understand the proper way to incentivize people and departments; especially when you encounter conflicting KPIs between different departments.
Incorporate small shifts in the existing System to accommodate the required change in the whole System.

3 Suggestions for Upstream Thinking

Here are 3 things for you to consider as you embark on your journey of assessing if you should invest time & money into adopting an Upstream approach to problem-solving:

1. Be Impatient for Action, but Patient for Outcomes

Actions speak louder than words, and that’s the only way to manifest change! Knowledge and information are worthless unless you’re able to put those abstracts into measurable actions!

2. Macro Starts with Micro

You can’t help a thousand people, or a million, until you understand how to help just one! Start small and take it from there on.

3. Favour Scoreboards Over Pills

Don’t obsess over formulating the perfect solution (the pill). Instead, take ownership of the problem and start moving forward (slowly but surely).

We Need You to be our Hero!

Our heroes shouldn’t only be firefighters, policemen, or even Superman who’re in essence people that restore things back to normal. We should do a better job at recognizing problems before they even occur, Batman approach! Heroes are people who’re unsatisfied with the status quo because it’s no longer fit for purpose anymore and somebody brave has to do something about it!

There is a delicate balance between Upstream & Downstream approaches to problem solving & you need both! One of the possible approaches to implement Upstream thinking to problem-solving at your organization is to dovetail the Infinity Loop of Continuous-Improvement, which was developed by DarTec Engineering:

This way, Upstream becomes seamlessly integrated into your organization’s System. If you want to become a strategic leader, you’ll need to allocate 30% of your effort towards Downstream Responses & 70% in Upstream Preventions. Use Upstream approach to solve problems in combination with Downstream to achieve optimum results!

Takeaways

The need for a Hero is a sign of a System failure!
Be aware that Downstream work is reacting to problems, which is easier to measure than trying to prevent problems before they even occur (Upstream).
Upstream work involves invisible Heroes saving invisible victims!
Detect problems early before they arise by addressing early warning signs and deploying sensors.
Use key leverage points for greater impact outcomes.
Accomplishing goals means measuring progress, so be aware of what you measure.
Be aware that Upstream solutions are broader & slower, but when they work, they achieve long-lasting results that can stretch beyond your wildest imagination.
Adopting an Upstream approach to problem-solving allows you to detect problems before they occur.
Become aware of the three barriers to Upstream thinking: Problem Blinders, Lack of Ownership, and Tunneling.
When you over emphasize pushing forward all the time, you never stop to ask whether you’re going in the right direction or not!
Target leverage points in complex Systems to address the problems at their roots.
Surround the problem by phrasing it in the form of a question that begs solving.
Always fight for System change; especially when it’s no longer fit for purpose by articulating the cost of doing nothing.
Get closer to the problem by leaving the comfort of your office and getting your hands dirty.
Look beyond the immediate results by questioning the validity of the metrics that you’re currently measuring.
Align your team’s incentives with that of the organization to get people motivated to find out-of-the-box solutions to the problem at hand.
Find reliable ways to measure success (try to include financial metrics).
Pioneer new ways of working together with other people, departments, and integrate success across different groups.
Embed collective success metrics between different departments by streamlining their efforts towards the ultimate objective, the organization’s Purpose.
Upstream work is limitless, so you can always go further Upstream!