If all the provinces and the Northwest Territories meet their individual emission targets for 2020 (and Yukon and Nunavut are climate neutral) Canada will still be about 29 megatonnes of CO2 eq over its Copenhagen Accord target.

So I wanted to figure out whether or not Canada would meet its Copenhagen Accord greenhouse gas emission target for 2020 if all the provinces and territories meet their individual emission targets for 2020.

It turns out Yukon and Nunavut don’t have any emission targets. Since they hardly emit anything (only 0.6 megatonnes of CO2 eq together in 2014) I didn’t count them in my calculations.

Here are my sources and calculations. All sources are government websites. Alberta and Saskatchewan are (perhaps deliberately) opaque when communicating their emission targets so I had to rely on the target conversions from their environment profile’s on the Government of Canada’s website, which seem to be subject to rounding. The past emission numbers that were used to calculate the future emission target numbers are up to date as of 2016/04/14 except for British Columbia’s emission number for 2007 which is up to date as of 2007. These numbers are also subject to rounding. Finally the Copenhagen Accord target is up to date as of 2016/02/10 and is also subject to rounding.

Conclusion: Even if all the provinces and the Northwest Territories meet their individual emission targets for 2020 (and Yukon and Nunavut are climate neutral) Canada will still be about 29 megatonnes of CO2 eq over its Copenhagen Accord target.