Hey Henry,
Jason Steeghs

As Yogi Berra (maybe apocryphally) and Niels Bohr (really) said, it’s difficult to predict, especially the future. There have been three responses to my comment. All three expect a flip to EVs in the near future, with leanings toward ride-hailing, autonomous vehicles (though the RH/AV scenario is not very relevant to the EV argument itself). All three expect certain sets of conditions to lead to this. Well, maybe. But all three require things to be available that are some combination of not available today, in process, under consideration, in the realm of the possible, and purely hypothetical. Yes. I remember when nuclear fission was going to make electricity too cheap to measure (giving away my age), and when nuclear fusion’s breakthroughs were first said to be “right around the corner.” Very bright, highly educated, creative people who were the tech wizards of the day and published glowing articles in the popular mechanics and science magazines, mostly working in major institutions, with lots of money, worked on those projects. Well, things didn’t turn out exactly as predicted.

I’d be willing to bet anyone $5 that in 2030 personal transportation in the U.S. will still be largely petroleum-powered automotive, and owned or leased by the “driver.”

(I’m posting this as a reply to each of the comments)

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