Your analysis is reasonable. What was left out was that Judy Graves entered the race before Jean. Both of them have the values, experience, integrity and common sense that we need in politics. But they both draw from the same demographic and therefore reduced the chances that either could win.
Add in the Greens and Vision and it was inevitable that NPA would win.
This kind of splintering has been going on on the left since the 1970’s. Isn’t it time to walk the talk and cooperate rather than competing?