This price range is where I will be buying Bitcoin (long-term)
Remember in 2021, I called the Bitcoin top while I stated that, there is potentially going to be a dump after the November peak. this prediction was based on same factor as I'm considering right now.
I get this question a lot and I know you probably have same on your mind. “When should I buy Bitcoin towards the next bull run, How much can I buy, When is the best time to buy”.
Before you buy at all, you should understand potential regions to buy at or even if you should be buying Bitcoin bottom at all.
In this article, I will talk about what the chart is saying, the potential projection for the bitcoin bottom and where I will start Dollar cost averaging (DCA) my entry.
Here is what the chart is saying
As it is well known, Technical Analysis rely on historical data to be able to predict/generate result for the current or future price action. As indicated in the above trading view chart by Sheyi CSA, the different between the Bull market top and the Bear market bottom has been a period of 13 months interval. This is shown on the chart by the highlighted red regions.
This effect occurred in 2009 to 2011, 2013 to 2015, 2017 to 2019 and now active in 2021 towards 2023.
What is different?
All things being equal, the current bear market should play out nicely following previous trend, “but” there are things to consider in this current bear market sentiment.
Recession: the last economic recession was in 2008 which preceded the launching of Bitcoin to the user’s market. While comparing Bear market circle and Bull market cycle, it is imperative to note that the previous bear market cycles did not occur during an economic recession. This in turn makes most of the prediction made by many market analyst invalid.
Miner capitulation: we can however console ourselves by saying, Bitcoin mostly follow patterns based on the BTC algorithm/design, this can lead us to say we are currently near market bottom. But, another thing to consider is the Hash rate indicator and we all know that Miners are the mechanical engineers behind bitcoin transaction confirmation. They need to be profitable to ensure they run mining nodes. A price drop of Bitcoin below $10,000 towards $7,000 could lead to miner capitulation. A lot of weak hand miners will drop off/sell off to break even. For the network to function, the whales need to hold the price above this price levels.
Based on the technical data available, I will be speculating a market bottom between December 2022, (as it is the 12th month after the bitcoin peak month in 2021); and early 2023, putting the recession into consideration. With this, based on the above chart, a bottom price projection between $10k to $15k region is expected. Worst case scenario, a test of $7k.
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, but a typical educational content on Technical Analysis (TA) and FA, showing prediction based on trend patterns shown by the available chart data. The Author is not liable for the decision you make as you are solely responsible for your actions and decisions.
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