So you’re saying there’s a chance?

  • In early June, the Blue Jays were 6 games up in the American League East on the Orioles. They are now 10 games back of them.
  • There are three teams ahead of them for a playoff spot. The James have 18 games to leap frog all of them
  • Two of those teams, Oakland and Detroit, traded for all star calibre, front of the rotation aces at the trade deadline (Jeff Samardzija and David Price). The Jays? Stood pat.

And yet, YET, the Blue Jays are 8–2 in there last 10 games. They are playing their best baseball since May. They have some young players making a big impact (Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez). So…is there a chance?

Well let’s take a look at how many wins it will take. Since the second wild card team was introduced two years ago, the second wild card has averaged 90.75 wins. The Jays are currently at 75 wins…With 18 games remaining, the Jays have to go 16–2 the rest of the way to meet that average….well then. The lowest amount of wins to reach the playoffs was the St. Louis Cardinals, who got in with 88 wins. The Jays would have to 13–5 the rest of the way…that’s better.

Any way you slice it, the chances are slim. Especially when you consider the competition coming up: Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners.

What can we do to have a shot? Let’s get a time machine and kick it back to 1988. In 1988 they went 22–5 in September. A repeat of that month in September 2014 would result in 3 losses in the last 18 games, ending up with 90 wins. I’d take that.

The odds are slim. We have to win a lot. But, hey, at least there are still odds.

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