Canadian Weekly Review: October 20, 2023
by Charles Hong, Happysona Principal Economist
2 min readOct 22, 2023
Consumer Price Index (CPI) — September 2023: The Year’s First Monthly Decline
- The total CPI saw a decline of 0.1% month-on-month. Despite this decrease being apparent in non-seasonally adjusted data, it marked the first dip since December 2022.
- When considering seasonally adjusted data, the CPI grew by 0.2%, representing the most modest monthly growth in the past four months.
- Year-on-year, the total CPI inflation slowed down, dropping to 3.8% from 4.0% in August.
Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) — September 2023: Second Monthly Rise But Milder.
- IPPI inflation reduced to 0.4% month-on-month after a significant 1.9% spike in August. This represents the second consecutive monthly growth after a nine-month decrease.
- The uptick in the monthly IPPI largely resulted from surges in energy and petroleum product prices over the past four months.
- Yearly IPPI inflation showed a gradual increase, reaching 0.6% from a standstill in August.
Housing Starts — September 2023: A Surge Led Predominantly by Ontario
- Total housing starts leaped by 8.0% month-on-month, tallying at 270,466 units. This pace is unparalleled in the last 12 months, with June being the exception.
- This substantial increase was predominantly due to multiple starts, with a robust resurgence in Ontario driving the overall growth.
- Conversely, housing starts in British Columbia observed their third consecutive monthly drop.
Real Retail Trade — August 2023: Persisting Descent
- Real total retail sales have been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive months, receding by 0.6% month-on-month.
- The decline was primarily attributed to gasoline stations and food and beverage retailers.
- In nominal terms, retail sales slightly decreased by 0.1% given that the implied price saw an uptick of 0.5% month-on-month.
Upcoming Economic Indicator
During the week of 23–27 October, the Bank of Canada is slated to unveil the overnight interest rate on Wednesday. Given the recent deceleration in CPI inflation combined with languishing retail sales, it’s anticipated that the Bank of Canada will maintain the interest rate at 5.00%.
