The Movie Lover’s Oscar Predictions 2018
We break down ever category in preparation for Sunday’s show. Who will win, who should win, who’s lurking, and who got left out?
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This Sunday we’ll celebrate the best that Hollywood has to offer (as long as it’s a war film or some type of drama) for the 90th consecutive year. This year offers one of the least predictable awards ceremonies in recent memory, with awards season juggernaut Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri going up against the weird and lovely The Shape of Water or sentimental indy darlings like Get Out and Lady Bird.
Who will take home the prize? See our breakdown of every category for our picks, snubs, and everything in between.
Best Picture
Again, one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory. It’s seemingly become a two-horse race between Billboards and Water, but there is always the possibility of a political indy darling pushing it’s way to a win. We’re going with The Shape of Water, which not only collected the most nominations (indicating an overall love from The Academy), but has also picked up important PGA and DGA awards that signal the love the industry has for it.
The Oscar Goes to: The Shape of Water
Who We’d Pick: The Shape of Water or Dunkirk
Don’t Sleep On: Lady Bird or Get Out
Biggest Snub: Wind River
Directing
Our beloved Guillermo del Toro has nearly swept the awards season by picking up almost every statue he’s been nominated for, including the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the DGA award. We wouldn’t rule out a possible Greta Gerwig win in an effort to fit in with the current social storylines of #MeToo and #TimesUp, and could also see Nolan picking up his fist statue for the impeccably crafted Dunkirk. Ultimately though, we think del Toro is riding the momentum to his first statue.
The Oscar Goes to: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Who We’d Pick: del Toro
Don’t Sleep On: Christopher Nolan or Greta Gerwig
Biggest Snub: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actor in a Leading Role
The acting categories have seemed to firm themselves up clearly, with Oldman having this award on lock since the beginning. It’s a near lock for one of most celebrated actors to finally take home his first Oscar.
The Oscar Goes to: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who We’d Pick: Oldman
Don’t Sleep On: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Biggest Snub: Andy Serkis, War for the Planet of the Apes
Actress in a Leading Role
Much like Oldman, Frances McDormand has picked up nearly every award she’s been up for this season. She absolutely commands her movie, daring you to look away when she’s on screen. You know what, we couldn’t. She’s that good. There is special room, however, to recognize Sally Hawkins in her brave, nearly completely silent performance in The Shape of Water. Also, much like the young buck Chalamet, Saoirse Ronan is a future award winner, having already been nominated three times. Her win won’t be this year, but it also would be a not-so-shocking shock if she did.
The Oscar Goes to: Frances McDorman, Three Billboards
Who We’d Pick: McDormand or Hawkins
Don’t Sleep On: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Biggest Snub: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Actor in a Supporting Role
The 3rd of four acting categories that has been dominated by a single winner, Supporting Actor is Rockwell’s to lose. Dafoe had the early momentum going into the awards season, but his film The Florida Project failed to resonate with many voters. He’s fantastic, but he’s not winning.
The Oscar Goes to: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Who We’d Pick: Rockwell
Don’t Sleep On: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Biggest Snub: Michael Stuhlbarg, for any of the several movies he crushed
Actress in a Supporting Role
Early money was on the well-respected Laurie Metcalf to be the favorite here, but Alison Janney has been the one picking up the hardware. Just like every other acting category, she’s won all the big awards and gained the most momentum. Out of the four acting categories, this is the one where an upset is most possible, but we don’t think it’ll happen.
The Oscar Goes to: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Who We’d Pick: Metcalf
Don’t Sleep On: Metcalf
Biggest Snub: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Really strong work all around here, but it’s going to be a tall order to beat James Ivory, the second-oldest nominee (by a mere eight days younger than Faces Places director Agnès Varda) this year. While Logan broke the glass ceiling of comic book film writing, and Mudbound could pose a potential roadblock as a film deserving recognition but unlikely to get any, this is Ivory’s to lose.
The Oscar Goes to: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Who We’d Pick: Logan
Don’t Sleep On: Mudbound
Biggest Snub: Wonder Woman
Writing (Original Screenplay)
This is one of the most contentious categories of the night, with love being divided amongst three major contenders. Three Billboards was deemed somehow ineligible for the WGA awards, giving the prize to Jordan Peele and Get Out instead. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Greta Gerwig sneaks in here for Lady Bird. We think that McDonagh will collect the trophy, but we wouldn’t put large amounts of money on it.
The Oscar Goes to: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
Who We’d Pick: Three Billboards or The Shape of Water
Don’t Sleep On: Get Out
Biggest Snub: I, Tonya; Coco
Cinematography
Roger Deakins is one of the most celebrated of his craft, and yet has never picked up an Oscar for his gorgeous work. His nomination here is his 14th, and it’d be a crime not to reward him for what is generally considered to be the best looking film of 2017. However, that same line of thinking has played out before, and it left him in the crowd watching someone else win. If anything, The Shape of Water or Dunkirk could sneak in here, signifying a big night of awards for the freaky fairy tale or the intense war film.
The Oscar Goes to: Blade Runner 2049
Who We’d Pick: Blade Runner 2049
Don’t Sleep On: The Shape of Water or Dunkirk
Biggest Snub: Murder on the Orient Express, Call Me By Your Name
Costume Design
Phantom Thread is a period film that is all about dressmaking. What more do you need to know about it? That being said, I found the dresses to be the least interesting part of that film. Phantom Thread should most likely take this, but if The Shape of Water is poised for a big night, then this is yet another award it could take.
The Oscar Goes to: Phantom Thread
Who We’d Pick: The Shape of Water
Don’t Sleep On: The Shape of Water
Biggest Snub: Thor: Ragnarok, The Greatest Showman, Blade Runner 2059
Film Editing
Dunkirk and Baby Driver are the two best edited films of the year, period. No amount of momentum by the other contenders vying for Best Picture recognition. It’s essentially a coin toss here, but we’re giving the edge to Dunkirk because the Academy gets sucked in by prestige war films and not popular action films. We hope we’re wrong, and that maybe they show themselves to be at least a LITTLE in touch with modern audiences, but either way, a wonderfully edited film is going to win.
The Oscar Goes to: Dunkirk
Who We’d Pick: Dunkirk or Baby Driver
Don’t Sleep On: Baby Driver
Biggest Snub: Get Out, Blade Runner 2049
Makeup and Hairstyling
One of the biggest locks of the night. Despite a boring group of nominees going over other deserved films in the sci-fi, superhero, and fantasy genres. How The Shape of Water or Guardians of The Galaxy, Vol. 2 didn’t get nominated, we’ll never know.
The Oscar Goes to: Darkest Hour
Who We’d Pick: Darkest Hour
Don’t Sleep On: Wonder
Biggest Snub: The Shape of Water, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol.2, Bright
Music (Original Score)
Another tough one to call. Alexander Desplat has been cleaning up with his score, but you can’t count out Johnny Greenwood’s Phantom Thread music or Hans Zimmer’s stressful, effective work for Dunkirk. Let’s say The Shape of Water takes it.
The Oscar Goes to: The Shape of Water
Who We’d Pick: Dunkirk
Don’t Sleep On: Phantom Thread
Biggest Snub: Coco, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour
Music (Original Song)
Coco has been the clear front runner here. But you can’t completely discount the momentum that The Greatest Showman has been picking up. With strong legs at the box office, it’s an audience friendly musical the Academy could throw a bone to.
The Oscar Goes to: “Remember Me” from Coco
Who We’d Pick: Coco
Don’t Sleep On: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Biggest Snub: “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me by Your Name
Production Design
Despite Blade Runner 2049 spending boatloads in it’s gorgeous creation of a futuristic world full of amazing sets, The Shape of Water has won the guild awards, and has gotten more ink from the press for it’s fantastic designs and locations. We expect the freaky fantasy to win here.
The Oscar Goes to: The Shape of Water
Who We’d Pick: The Shape of Water
Don’t Sleep On: Blade Runner 2049
Biggest Snub: Thor: Ragnarok, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman
Sound Editing
The Academy tends to celebrate war films with their sound categories, and the popular, technically impressive Dunkirk should clean up here. Don’t be surprised, however, if Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049 show up here, as last year showed that a moody sci-fi film could break the cycle.
The Oscar Goes to: Dunkirk
Who We’d Pick: Dunkirk or Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Don’t Sleep On: Blade Runner 2049 or Baby Driver
Biggest Snub: War for the Planet of the Apes, Coco, Wonder Woman
Sound Mixing
See above. Dunkirk’s got this, but there are spoilers aplenty in these below-the-line technical categories.
The Oscar Goes to: Dunkirk
Who We’d Pick: Dunkirk or Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Don’t Sleep On: Blade Runner 2049 or Baby Driver
Biggest Snub: War for the Planet of the Apes, Coco, Wonder Woman
Visual Effects
The newest Planet of the Apes trilogy has been neglected by the Academy, nominated but never winning. We wouldn’t be surprised if one of the following two things happen: the trend continues, giving Blade Runner 2049 an opening, or they finally give a little love to the team that turned Andy Serkis into the most convincing on screen ape of all time.
The Oscar Goes to: War for the Planet of the Apes
Who We’d Pick: War for the Planet of the Apes
Don’t Sleep On: Blade Runner 2049
Biggest Snub: Thor: Ragnarok
Animated Feature Film
There’s always chances for an upset. But still… Pixar. Lock it in.
The Oscar Goes to: Coco
Who We’d Pick: Coco
Don’t Sleep On: Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner
Biggest Snub: The Lego Batman Movie
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman has been the odds on favorite here. Lest we forget, it’s a film that let’s the Academy wave it’s politics around by recognizing a genuinely good film, as opposed to forcing something from a mediocre one. There is still a chance for The Square to maybe squeak by, but don’t count on it.
The Oscar Goes to: A Fantastic Woman
Who We’d Pick: A Fantastic Woman
Don’t Sleep On: The Square
Biggest Snub: BPM (Beats per Minute)
Documentary (Feature)
Unlike some of the other categories, this one is far from decided. It’s essentially a coin toss between three films. We have the sentimental favorite, Faces Places, directed by this years oldest nominee, Agnès Varda. The politically charged Last Men in Aleppo, who’s producers were only recently granted a visa to attend the awards, and the timely, urgent Icarus. We’ll trust the Academy to go with what’s hot in global politics.
The Oscar Goes to: Icarus
Who We’d Pick: Icarus
Don’t Sleep On: Faces Places, Last Men in Aleppo
Biggest Snub: Jane
Documentary (Short Subject)
Your guess is as good as ours here.
The Oscar Goes to: Heronin(e)
Who We’d Pick: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Don’t Sleep On: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Biggest Snub: ???
Short Film (Animated)
You don’t seriously think that Hollywood is going to nominated Kobe Bryant and not give him an Oscar, do you? Look for him to add to his already impressive NBA hardware, though spoilers could come from Lou.
The Oscar Goes to: Dear Basketball
Who We’d Pick: Lou
Don’t Sleep On: Lou
Biggest Snub: In a Heartbeat
Short Film (Live Action)
DeKalb Elementary is the timely, tragic, and emotionally resonant of the nominees. The Eleven O’Clock is more of a feel-good story, but we don’t think it’ll be enough to win.
The Oscar Goes to: DeKalb Elementary
Who We’d Pick: DeKalb Elementary
Don’t Sleep On: The Eleven O’Clock
Biggest Snub: ???
Final Predictions
Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Directing
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress in a Supporting Role
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Writing (Adapted Screeplay)
James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Film Editing
Dunkirk
Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Music (Original Score)
The Shape of Water
Music (Original Song)
“Remember Me” from Coco
Production Design
The Shape of Water
Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Animated Feature Film
Coco
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Documentary (Feature)
Icarus
Documentary (Short Subject)
Heroin(e)
Short Film (Animated)
Dear Basketball
Short Film (Live Action)
DeKalb Elementary
