Hong Kong independence : The Initiative
Author: Cheng Lap, Translate: HKPG
Despite the agenda of ‘Democratic China’ make no progress whatsoever, lots of the democrats believe that we should hold on to it. Some of them admit that it is unlikely to succeed, therefore it is justifiable to assume the rest of them to believe that it will success when the time come.
At the same time, the hope of ‘Democratic China’ represents the destabilisation or the end of the ‘Authoritarian China’. In another word it means ‘Authoritarian China’ losing the control or least Beijing have lost control over Hong Kong.Which is supposed to be scenario ‘Democratic China’, however, it also make the independence of Hong Kong become viable. In fact, it is the most realistic situation which Hong Kong continue to function while Beijing lost its command in Hong Kong.
Which is identical compare to collapse of the first dynasty of the imperial China which the Emperor lost his control over commander Triue Da and when Triue lost his chain of command, it could be seen as a de facto independence given the face that he have full ability and responsibility to command his power and troops.
Therefore, the independence of Hong Kong is not as unlikely as people see it is, even the independence of Hong Kong has little to do with the people’s will. Since Hong Kong will be forced to be independent when Beijing weaken and lose its control. It is not about pursuing but the nature when Beijing cease to function normally, and Hong Kong being mostly unaffected.
Opposing the independence of Hong Kong was nothing but people who fear to open the Pandora’s box deep inside and unwilling to imagine what might happen. In fact the scenario is justifiable just like the collapse of Soviet Union created independent states and a ‘Democratic Russia’ forcibly.
These gentlemen’s mistake was fail to imagine what might happen when the ‘Democratic China’ appears. It is difficult to seek for support when they fail to imagine while pursuing the goal. In another words, those who opposed a ‘Democratic China’ are well-thought that it is reasonable that a ‘Democratic China’ will be followed by fractures and secessions; it is justifiable for them to support the authoritarian while opposing secessions. But those democrats have ignored the scenario.
It a pet have lost the owner, it will become a wild animal, or it have no choice to become a wild animal for survival; or an entrepreneur have no employer, he will become the new boss for living.
Right now, it is unlikely for Hong Kong to be democratic after independence, or a full autonomous government. More likely it will only have a handicapped legislature, an administration with no stance, motivation or thoughts on diplomacy: a colonial government without suzerainty. The leader might still be Chief Executive but he have no clue about leadership, not even the future without Beijing. So will the legislature become more democratic?
We are not sure about it, but it won’t help even if it does. Most of the lawmakers, partially are puppet of Beijing and the other half opposing without constructive idea. No one can tell how can Hong Kong protect itself in the future. The uselessness will appear and realise there is no leaders but lackeys or pressure groups.
Regardless of the Initiative on independence, international diplomacy and geopolitics is inevitable when the time come. And we will be overwhelmed since we have no preparations.
The chaos of the democratic movement and uselessness today could be seen as a rehearsal for the democrats. Countering the failed promised, the democrats have no counter play. We can see when Hong Kong become independent, the entire political sphere have zero counter play, regardless of the stance on independence.
Once the ‘Authoritarian China’ cease to function, the independence of Hong Kong is inevitable, which the time when Hong Kong need a leader who understand the world has changed and restructure the strategies.
Or at least he will actively look for alliance; or securing water and energy supply; or recruiting mercenaries and armed police to protect the border; or realise what to deal with the refugee; or understand what can we do to prevent or delay the spread of war from north. This require statesmanship, and bureaucracy won’t help at all.
There is no guarantee to a ‘Democratic China’ after all of these. If one have no capability to maintain Hong Kong’s function and survival, it is the unlikely that he can ‘unify and democratic China’. Even there are a ‘Democratic China’, it is unknowing that should Hong Kong join without realising it the friend or enemy. More of us expect that when such happens, Hong Kong will become a protectorates of American or British. They have no motives and ability nor believe fellow Hong Konger have the ability to handle such.
With that being said, Hong Kong need a representative with intelligence to realise the stance which is unlikely to be the Chief Executive like a bureaucrat. I believe that it is Sir Ka-shing Li which have full understanding on Hong Kong’s power lies on international economic monopoly.
And at this point, we should realise that when a ‘Democratic China’ happen, the independence of Hong Kong will appear as a side effect. Which is an authentic issue that we should consider with heart and mind, regardless of preparations.
I am not an academia, but an entrepreneur. When academia talk about ‘Democratic China’, they believe the prophecy in the End of History. But what I care is when the day arrives, what should we do? I am sure that life will find a way out, but the cruelty and difficulty will be way beyond our imaginations.
Original text from : https://www.facebook.com/cheng.lap.9/posts/10156286003772357
現在說建立民主中國, 一無進展, 很多人都說堅持下去, 堅持下去是為了甚麼? 有少數人承認「根本不會成功」, 剩下的人應該是「時機來了就會成功」吧?
那麼, 民主中國的希望, 自然就是專制中國的不穩甚至結束. 那麼, 無論如何, 就是代表專制中國被證明喪失了控制能力, 至少代表北京政府失去了控制香港的能力.
這應該就是「民主中國」所期待的機會, 但是, 一旦發生這樣的事情, 也同樣使香港獨立立即變得可行. 這其實是最現實的情況, 就是香港繼續依他本來的形式運作, 但是北京失去了指揮香港的能力. 這應該是專制中國崩壞或者瓦解時, 最有可能發生的情況.
這其實很像二千多年前, 秦朝崩潰的時候, 失去了指揮南越趙佗的能力, 而趙佗在失去指揮的一瞬間, 已是 De Facto 的獨立. 因為他已有能力和責任去指揮自己相關的一切事情.
故此, 香港獨立並非如大家想像的那麼不可能, 甚至香港獨立與香港是否想獨立無關. 因為香港會在北京政府失去控制能力時「被獨立」, 他並不是主動追求的結果, 而是北京運作出現問題, 而香港還是能運作的自然演化.
反對香港獨立, 是因為害怕打開心裡的潘朵拉盒子, 不願想像這個情況的發生. 但這個情況其實會非常合理地發生, 就像蘇聯結束的時候, 各加盟國相繼獨立, 剩下的民主俄羅斯加上大量獨立國家.
那他們的錯誤, 就是沒有認真想像過, 民主中國建立時, 應該會發生甚麼事, 如果沒想像過, 那麼說他們追求民主中國, 這件事我就無法予以認同. 或者說, 反對民主中國的人反而有想清楚, 民主中國的建立會伴隨分裂是合理結果, 他們因為反對分裂而支持專制, 事實上言行合一. 但支持民主的人, 則避開這個可能性.
就像被養的狗, 如果主人死了, 牠就會變成野狗, 或者說, 他沒有選擇, 必須當野狗生存下去. 又或者像創業者, 當你沒有了僱主你卻想在經濟上生存時, 你就會變成新的老闆.
香港獨立的時候, 不太會是民主, 也不會是一個真的能自理的政府, 他大概會繼續維像現在的運作: 一個殘廢的議會, 一個其實沒甚麼自身立場的行政機關, 對於外交與長遠規劃欠缺動力和想法, 一個純粹失去了宗主國的殖民地政府.
領導者應該會繼續是特首, 但是他根本沒想過要怎樣領導, 甚至看不到沒有北京統治之下的未來. 議會會民主化嗎?
不知道, 但民主化也沒有用, 因為大部份議員, 一部份只會死撐北京政府, 另一部份甚麼都反對, 沒甚麼人講得出未來香港要怎樣保障自己. 這個議會的廢物性會浮現出來, 你會發覺裡面其實只有奴才或壓力團體, 沒有執政者.
但不論你主動追求獨立, 還是被獨立, 你都是被捲入國際外交, 要歸邊站隊, 以及地緣政治的博奕, 而香港則會在一個完全沒 ready 的狀態被獨立.
今天香港民主運動的亂象, 以及無力, 可以說是一次演練. 面對 2017 年被走數的雙普選, 民主派沒有對策, 同樣地, 香港被獨立的一瞬間, 整個香港政壇都會等運到, 不論你同不同意, 有沒有想過香港獨立.
專制中國一旦崩壞, 香港的獨立其實是不可避免, 那時香港就需要一個明白世界已經不同, 要重整一切策略, 自立自強的領導者.
至少他會主動找一些盟友來保障, 至少他會主動去處理水和能源的問題, 至少他會去僱用一支傭兵或武裝起軍警保護香港, 至少他會明白要怎樣處理可能湧入的難民, 至少他要明白怎樣盡可能防止或延遲可能在北方地區發生的戰爭, 波及香港. 你需要的是這麼強大的行動力與危機意識的領導者, 養尊處優行動緩慢的官僚, 絕不適合.
而且之後是否有民主中國呢? 這是沒有保證的, 如果你連在大亂時期, 讓香港維持正常運作合理生存都做不到, 那麼在專制中國崩壞後, 重新以民主的方式統一中國, 應該是你能力以外的事情.
況且, 一個號稱民主中國的東西建立了, 香港是否要加入呢? 這又是另一個問題, 你怎知道這民主中國, 是敵是友?
所以很多人期望的是, 一旦這情況發生, 香港會成為美國或英國的保護地, 單純就是覺得自己根本不想, 亦沒有能力, 亦不相信其他香港人有能力, 去處理這問題, 便想把這件事完全丟給美國佬, 期望美軍登陸維持所有秩序.
但就算如此, 香港人還是要有一個足夠智慧明白自己立場的談判代表, 而這大概不會是那個其實只是聽命官僚的特首. 而最有可能的, 我不覺得是任何政府, 任何政黨, 反而是李嘉誠, 如果他還在生的話, 國際經濟霸權, 就是香港的實際權力.
去到明白這點時, 其實你會發覺, 假設民主中國運動存在, 而且真的有可能走向成功時, 香港獨立會作為副作用而發生. 而香港獨立本來就是一個你必須認真去想的問題, 因為他是真的會出現的, 不管你是否有為他準備過及準備好.
我不是學者而是創業者, 學者談民主中國, 心裡想的怎樣完成那個「暴政必亡」「專制將會倒下」的預言. 但我在意的是, 哪天暴政真的亡, 專制真的倒下之後, 大家要怎樣辦? 生命會找到出路, 對, 但過程會比你們想像中的困難與殘暴.
