An unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year

JAIL STEVE BRUCE
Apr 4, 2017 · 2 min read

28th March

Actuarial predictions of life expectancy at age 65 in 2017 are further revised down, totalling a reduction since 2013 of 0.6 years for men and 1 year for women. A senior actuary states that:

Until recently, mortality rates in the UK were falling at an impressive pace. Since 2011, these improvements have stalled.

An unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year has led to the CMI’s latest model revising down the projection of how long we will live.

“For some schemes about to embark on new funding negotiations, adopting CMI_2016 could cut life expectancy, and represent a reduction in liabilities of up to 2%.

This does not mean that life expectancy for a 65-year-old in 2017 is lower than life expectancy was for a 65-year-old in 2013, but that life expectancy for a 65-year-old in 2017 has been substantially revised downwards in the last four years. This is due to, as the bold text states, an unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year.


4th April

Jeremy Corbyn’s press team pre-announce part of a speech he is about to make, responding to an unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year, including the words:

How can you not be angry and demand major change when life expectancy in Britain for pensioners and those aged 45 is falling? We are a rich country, the sixth richest in the world. We are not at war, there is no epidemic sweeping our land.

So how on earth can life expectancy be falling?


The Tories dispute this, saying that life expectancy is not falling but, not disputing an unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year, the rate at which life expectancy is rising is slowing.


The press report this as a “row over life expectancy”. A Guardian Analysis concludes that, notwithstanding an unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year, “Corbyn should have been more precise because the claim as he made it is not justified”.


A story about an unprecedented uptick in the number of people dying in the UK each year has become a pedantic story about Jeremy Corbyn being deemed to be wrong about the definition of “life expectancy”. Facts have no agenda.