WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU SEE A BLACK SWAN? CONQUER IT!

Yen Hoang
4 min readJun 28, 2024

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Recently, people around me have been babbling about how destiny determines your survival. If someone in my house bought a new motorcycle, he/she is advised to buy it on the “luck” days and circumvent “jinxed” days. I don’t know exactly how they define and categorize a day into the spectrum of fortune and misfortune, maybe based on “The signals of universe” or “Google ads sponsors”. They blindly follow their “undefined” perception of the day to act, to buy motorcycles. If you buy motorcycles on your “jinxed day”, you will be haunted by a demonic agent that is chasing you, longing your blood and flesh like a real zombie and trying to distract you with thoughts when you are driving. People view accidents very dramatically and they have the tendency to shrug their responsibility off and put a blame on destiny. (Even when you are not the cause of the accident, you should not have been the victim)

Why do we do so? Because we are fragile to unexpected scenarios. Nobody wants it to happen therefore, so nobody cares what will make it happen. Like an accident. Schools do not teach you about unexpected events because those events were not based on history. What school teaches you is “history runs backward, observing it, we will have knowledge”.

We only prepare for what we want.

They are deadly wrong, because history doesn’t run backward, it runs forward. Provided that you were at the shopping window on 9/11, at that time, you saw a plane approaching nearby and wondered “where is it gonna land? It is moving downward” Then minutes later, boom

I really hope schools could teach us how to create information instead of solely absorbing it, because if something is now absorbed, it has been absorbed for such a long time. Yes, that’s why what we learn will be outdated. I don’t say that history is full of trash, discard it, no, history catalyzes the future, we just have so much in history to absorb so that future goes beyond the control of our species. (Because simply in the history, we weren’t the only creature to live on this planet).

We react vehemently to accidents, to unexpected scenarios. But it is our primal instinct to do so. We don’t know what will happen, we don’t expect the worst scenarios, we don’t know defined causes in the infinite pool of potential causes. So, we, simply, scale down unexpected problems to luck, misfortune, and destiny.

Furthermore, we can not accept anything without meaning. It perplexes our minds, it challenges our understanding (because our understanding is predominantly history-based). Everything must happen for a reason, but what reason?. Who knows. And that’s not a comfortable feeling. Then we come up with luck, misfortune, and destiny to let our mind rest.

“The backbone of the problem is hard to reach, therefore nobody is willingly to reach.”

The unexpected nature of road and perhaps life

When you are driving, you are exposing yourself to uncertainty. Basically you can control your mind on driving tasks, but you cannot make sure others are under control. (You see, shocking events rarely happen in your houses). Therefore, exerting more control on unexpected scenarios is stupid idea.

People around me show great condolences to the victims of accidents. (Yes, easy to understand). However, they said that the victims of accidents usually have a very “jinxed” destiny, their accidents are “partly” pre-determined by “undefined causes”. I don’t know why they can’t accept accidents as accidents, nothing more than accidents.

The more I read Black Swan, the more I realize about the very nature of our life. Accidents have never happened to me, I am a skilled driver, how can? You might think. I must say that everything is possible. Having not been implicated in any accidents is not enough solid evidence that tomorrow I won’t cause/in one. We have put ourselves into the poll of uncertainty from the very beginning . Observing 1000 white swans doesn’t guarantee the black swan is an illusion. Rather, it is our illusion to not see the black swan as black swan.

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