Finally, today we officially announce, our new project “Predictions by Hodl Hodl” is available on MAINNET — predictions.hodlhodl.com.
In this blog post we want to give instructions, explain how everything works, and give you some use cases for our new project.
Let’s get everything in order.
Put simply, this project allows you to predict the outcomes of any events in the world and earn bitcoins from other users in case your predictions were right.
Predictions by Hodl Hodl is a marketplace where you can go and create the prediction, and conduct a contract with any user that accepts your offer, where the conditions of the payout depend on the outcome of a certain event.
We would like to highlight, the payouts are only made in Bitcoin.
To make all this possible,
we provide you with a solution:
- An offer desk
Simply put, it’s a place where you can find other users’ predictions, and create your own;
For each contract, we generate two multisig addresses, where the funds are being stored safely during the prediction contract, with two out of three keys needed for release — and when the event happens, the user that predicted the outcome correctly receives all the funds;
- Resolving disputes
In case of a disagreement between the two parties on the prediction contract’s outcome, Hodl Hodl intervenes and resolves the dispute.
If you’re still not sure whether this platform may be useful to you, here are some examples of use cases from existing predictions.
- Stock prices
You can buy public company shares, and try predicting the price of that stock. Choose any public company, e.g. Google, and predict the price of its shares by, for example, the end of 2019.
- Oil price
If you’re long on renewable energy, you would probably expect the price of oil to fall at some point — predict when exactly.
- Payouts to creditors of MtGox
If you’re a MtGox creditor (a Bitcoin exchange that was hacked and went bankrupt back in 2014) and awaiting the payout, you might be interested in creating a contract that says “creditors of MtGox will not be paid anything in 2019” even though your expectation is that they will be. Thus, if you get paid by MtGox, you receive bitcoins from them, but lose the ones you locked in your contract. If you don’t get paid by MtGox, you’d get some of the bitcoins that will be sort of a compensation for a longer wait period.
- Peter McCormack VS Craig Wright
If you follow these kinds of events and want to support either side, make a prediction of who wins the trial, or whether it goes to trial at all.
To create your own prediction,
all you need is an account — once it’s created, you can freely make your own predictions and create offers, which will be subject to moderation by Hodl Hodl administration.
To make a prediction offer, simply press the “Add offer” button on the front page of the website, or on “My offers” page.
When creating offers, you have to describe the event, the outcome you predict, how many bitcoins you would like to lock in escrow and how much your counterparty should lock in escrow.
We made the process as simple as possible, and creating offers won’t take much of your time.
- Every offer is pre-moderated by Hodl Hodl admins
- Your offer should not describe anything illegal
- You should be as specific and unambiguous as possible when describing the event outcome
When you create an offer and someone accepts it, or you accept an existing offer, a contract is created.
Let’s analyze this step by step.
- Contract is created;
Right after the contract is created, Hodl Hodl generates two unique escrow addresses.
It’s worth mentioning:
- We support native Bech32 SegWit addresses. This means you can send and receive the funds from escrow to Bech32 addresses when the contract is completed
- We generate P2SH-P2WSH SegWit multisig escrow addresses. For every contract we generate multisig addresses in SegWit format.
2. Both parties make deposits;
Both offeror and acceptor make deposits to the escrow addresses we present them with, sending funds from their own Bitcoin wallets.
3. Waiting for the event to take place;
When both counterparties have sent bitcoins to the escrow addresses and transactions are confirmed, we inform users that everything is alright, and we’re waiting for the event to take place.
4. Acknowledging the contract outcome;
Once the event has happened, we ask both parties to decide who was right and who was wrong regarding the prediction made.
Both parties are given 3 days to acknowledge this. If there’s a disagreement between them or one party doesn’t make the decision as to the outcome of the contract within 3 days, a dispute is started.
It’s also possible for both parties to declare a draw — in this case, both parties are able to refund the funds they’ve previously locked in escrow.
5. Prediction contract is now complete!
If the parties agreed on the contract outcome, the party that predicted the outcome correctly can release all locked funds from the escrow to their own Bitcoin wallet: both the funds the party itself locked and the funds that the counterparty locked.
That’s it, the workflow is as simple as that.
It’s worth asking, what exactly happens in case of a disagreement between the two parties in a prediction contract?
Say we have a dispute in which case Hodl Hodl intervenes and resolves the dispute by:
- Analyzing the prediction contract;
- Verifying the event outcome;
- Deciding, who predicted the outcome correctly.
Administrator has the following options: either resolve the dispute in favor of one of the counterparties, or to recognize a draw.
We do not expect this scenario to be difficult or waste our resources, because every offer is pre-moderated and we apply strict rules for offer creation.
We are currently launching the product with a clearly working base functionality — everyone will be able to create predictions and complete contracts, and the mobile version is ready too.
However, we are already in the process of improving these services and many new features and updates will be added in the future, such as:
- Lightning Network integration
- Mobile application (yes, you’ve heard right)
- Simplification of the interface
follow the latest news, share this blog post, we would appreciate any help and support from your side, and if you have anything to tell us (suggestions, bug reports, etc.), feel free to reach us by any convenient channel specified below.
- Hodl Hodl exchange: hodlhodl.com
- TESTNET Hodl Hodl exchange: testnet.hodlhodl.com
- Predictions by Hodl Hodl: predictions.hodlhodl.com
- TESTNET Predictions by Hodl Hodl: predictions.cc
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- Telegram: https://t.me/HodlHodl
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