Todd Gurley Has No Business Being an MVP Candidate: Part I
The conversation around Todd Gurley winning MVP started early in the season as he was totally outpacing the league in scoring with 11 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns through the team’s first 7 games; putting him on pace to break LaDainian Tomlinson’s single season total touchdowns record.
On its surface, propping up Gurley as an MVP candidate was a reasonable thing to do. He was on pace to break the record of the 2006 MVP, so why shouldn’t he be in consideration for the 2018 MVP?
The problem with using touchdowns as a means to put Gurley on a pedestal is that 15 of Todd Gurley’s 17 total touchdowns this season have come in the red zone and Todd Gurley has by far the most red zone attempts in the NFL. Gurley’s 55 red zone rushing attempts are 14 more than the 2nd highest in the league (Alvin Kamara with 41) and nearly 20 more than the 3rd highest in the league (Saquon Barkley with 33).
For historical context, Todd Gurley is on pace to finish with 4 more red zone rushing attempts than LaDanian Tomlinson had in 2006 when the league was far more run-heavy. And even with all of those red zone attempts, Gurley is on pace to fall 6 total touchdowns short of LT’s record.
The Rams get to the red zone very frequently and Todd Gurley has scored frequently as a result, but all of this does little to highlight Gurley’s elite value as a football player. He’s a great goal line back but he’s in a league with several great goal line backs and the only thing to distinguish him from the others is the mere fact that he’s handed the ball far more often.
When you talk about running backs bringing value to their teams, one of the first things to look at is how elusive they are, what they do to gain additional yards when the blocking or the scheme isn’t there to save them.
For instance, when Adrian Peterson won MVP in 2012, he had one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL, but he also lead the league in broken tackles. It was his elusiveness that allowed him to average 6 yards per carry behind the same offensive line his backup Toby Gerhart averaged only 3.4 yards per carry with.
And Todd Gurley, who’s backup Maclom Brown averages the same 5.0 yards per carry as him, hasn’t ranked anywhere near the league’s most elusive backs this season.
Kareem Hunt has broken 21 more tackles on the ground than Todd Gurley has this season on nearly 30 less rushing attempts. Melvin Gordon has broken 16 more tackles than Todd Gurley this season on nearly 60 less rushing attempts. And Cleveland’s breakout rookie Nick Chubb has 5 more broken tackles than Gurley on nearly 100 less rushing attempts.
Hunt, Gordon and Chubb all rank top 4 in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating amongst qualifying backs while Gurley ranks 18th out of 29.
Now we know Todd Gurley is capable of doing incredible things in the open field and that his elite field vision helps him avoid contact in ways your average back could not, but Gurley gaining so many yards without contact is primarily a credit to the Rams offensive line opening up running lanes for him at a historical rate.
Football Outsiders has the Rams entirely outpacing the rest of the league in Adjusted Line Yards, a statistic that measures an offensive line’s impact on the run game independent of the running back.
The Rams lead the league with 5.63 Adjusted Line Yards per carry, .58 yards per carry more than the 2nd place New Orleans Saints at 5.05. For context, the next largest gap in Adjusted Line Yards between 2 teams is only .13. The Rams are the best run blocking team in the NFL and it’s uncanny how much better they are than everyone else.
Todd Gurley is an amazing football player, but he’s benefited from his run blocking more than any other running back in the NFL and it makes it hard to take him seriously as a MVP candidate as a result.
But there’s another guy on his offense that should be taken seriously as an MVP candidate, read Part II of this article to find out why.
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