Top 10 Quarterbacks for the 2019–20 Season
Criteria
This list isn’t about the past and comparing people’s legacies, it’s solely about how we project these players to perform this upcoming season.
And these are not fantasy rankings. This list has very little to do with who will have the better raw counting stats by year’s end.
It’s about how effective these players will be compared to their peers after factoring the talent (or lack thereof) and coaching staff (or lack thereof) that they have surrounding them.
1. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
A lot of people are bashful about anointing Patrick Mahomes the best quarterback in football because they believe the sample size isn’t large enough. Even more people are bashful about entertaining the idea that Patrick Mahomes could ever improve upon his first season as a starter.
I’m not one of those people.
Yes the 31 teams around the league have a full season of tape on Mahomes, but Mahomes also has a full season of tape on them. He also has Andy Reid, whose offensive playbook evolves year-by-year more than any other coach in the NFL. And despite his big numbers, he left a lot of plays on the field last season due to a lack of chemistry with his receivers and just an overall lack of experience as an NFL quarterback. He’ll be able to improve upon both of those things this season.
He’s spent the offseason shedding off “baby-fat” and improving his footwork and it appears to have paid off as people covering the Chiefs training camp have declared Mahomes to be on “another level” compared to last season.
He also comes back to an improved receiving corps with the acquisition of second round speedster Mecole Hardman Jr. in addition to 25-year-old Tyreek Hill and 26-year-old Sammy Watkins still being on the upswing of their respective careers.
He’s going to be better this year than he was last year.
2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
In recent years people have mindlessly considered Rodgers the best quarterback in the NFL regardless of how many premature playoff exits he’s had or how many seasons he’s thrown for no more than 7 yards per attempt.
And now I’m kind’ve going to be one of those guy. The very guys I hate. Rodgers is ranked #2 simply because it feels right. Not going off a mountain of evidence evidence, it just feels like this man is due for an elite season.
If we’re going off of the past few seasons alone, Rodgers probably isn’t even a top 5 QB. But this year he’s finally in a modernized offense under the direction of new head coach Matt LaFleur, he has a full season of playing with a legitimate threat at running back in Aaron Jones and hopefully he has better luck with his body after battling a sprained MCL throughout the entire season last year.
If he can remain healthy, he should finally be able to put on a performance that lives up to his reputation.
3. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)
Ryan quietly was one of the best quarterbacks in football for yet another season last year ranking 3rd in yards per game, 4th in passer rating, 5th in adjust yards per attempt and 6th in touchdown percentage amongst qualifying QB’s.
This year he returns to a Falcons team that invested two first round picks into the offensive line, should see leaps from Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper, should see an improvement in play-calling as Dirk Koetter is returning as their coordinator and they get back one of the most underrated running backs in the league in Devonta Freeman who gives Ryan another receiving option out of the backfield and makes the play-action passing game far more viable.
Ryan has all of the weapons in-tow for another great season and the Falcons should win enough football games for him to get the credit he deserves.
4. Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)
Wentz has become criminally underrated in less than a year removed from him being the MVP front-runner during the 2017–18 season. You had talking-heads lobbying for the Eagles to trade Wentz and keep Nick Foles. Very few sports publications have Wentz ranked top 10 in their QB lists. Not to mention Madden 20 rating Wentz a lowly 82 overall.
An unescapable amount of shade is being thrown in his direction right now and he’s done very little to merit this level of dismissiveness.
Every quarterback struggles a bit in their first season returning from an ACL injury (see Palmer, see McNabb, see Brady, see Watson). Not to mention Wentz was playing with a fractured vertebra for the better part of last season.
Thus far, he’s held up at training camp without any hiccups so both of those issues should be in the rearview.
Having newfound confidence in your body goes a long way for a quarterback. So expect Wentz to bounce back and return to MVP-form with the offensive additions of DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Miles Saunders and Jordan Howard.
5. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
Russell Wilson has been the most consistent quarterback in football from the moment he’s stepped in the league. He’s only missed the playoffs once and he’s never had a losing record. And he’s continued to do it as the pressure on him to carry the team has increased. I don’t expect this season to be much different.
What has changed this season however, is he’ll no longer have Doug Baldwin. And while Baldwin was somewhat of a shell of himself last season, he was still a receiver that defenses respected and presented a viable threat opposite of Tyler Lockett.
This season I’m not sure Wilson has that secondary option at his disposal. If this D.K. Metcalf thing doesn’t pan out, this could be the worst receiving corps Wilson has played with by far. After Tyler Lockett there isn’t a single receiver at wideout, running back or tight end who defenses have to account for.
Wilson should remain as excellent on an individual basis, but the lack of weapons surrounding him will inevitably hamper his production.
6. Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
Baker Mayfield had one of the better rookie seasons for a quarterback in NFL history last season, earning the 2nd highest PFF quarterback rating for a rookie since they launched their grading system in 2006.
And now he adds one of the greatest wide receivers the game has ever seen to his receiving corps, a full season of Nick Chubb along with a half-season of Kareem Hunt.
Odell Beckham Jr. will give Mayfield everything he didn’t have last season. A reliable deep threat, someone who can consistently create after the catch and someone who gives quarterbacks the luxury of throwing up 50/50 balls because they win those battles against DB’s far more times than they lose them.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will allow Mayfield to sell the play-action about as well as any quarterback in the league. And Hunt in particular gives him a great security blanket out of the backfield as he’s an underrated route runner at his position and creates yards after the catch as well as any back in football.
If Mayfield can be the same exact player he was for the second half of last season with these weapons in-tow, the Browns offense is going to be special.
7. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
Ranking Tom Brady at this stage in his career is difficult because it is completely conceivable that he performs like the NFL’s 12th or 13th best quarterback during the regular season and then performs like the NFL’s 1st or 2nd best quarterback during the postseason. It’s pretty much what happened last year.
And it’s not like Brady had a dominant postseason either. He executed his game plans competently, stayed poised under pressure and was ultimately the last quarterback standing…but it didn’t actually feel like an elite quarterback had won the Super Bowl. So the question becomes, how do you quantify that when comparing him individually up against other quarterbacks heading into the 2019–20 season? Putting him at #7 is somewhat of a shot in the dark.
According to Brady himself, he’s stronger and faster than he’s been in recent years. When most aging athletes say something like this they are typically coming from a place of delusion. But Brady’s workout and nutritional regimens have proven to be otherworldly in their effectiveness. So there’s a very good chance he’s telling the truth about seeing noticeable improvements in his own game.
If Brady can continue to win his fight against Father Time and his two established receiving threats in James White and Julian Edelman stay healthy, he should remain one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
8. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
The future didn’t look too bright for Andrew Luck and the Colts early in the season. But their schedule eased up and the Colts went onto become the third team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 1–5 start.
The Colts finally supplied Luck with an offensive line and Frank Reich constructed a playbook that simplified Luck’s decision-making process. The end result was him getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds per passing attempt, .4 seconds faster than he did in 2016. And also being sacked on only 2.7% of his drop backs. The next lowest in his career was a mere 4.2% in 2014.
Now Luck has another year in Frank Reich’s system and his young offensive line has another year to gel as a group. His command of the offense should improve, his pass blocking should improve and his receiving corps will undoubtedly improve as they signed Devin Funchess, drafted Parris Campbell and get back Jack Doyle from injured reserve.
9. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)
Expecting the 40-year-old Brees to duplicate last season’s legendary performance is a bit much. If I thought he was going to do that he would undoubtedly be ranked #2 on this list. But his arm strength is on the decline and the Saints inability to push the ball down the field makes their offense increasingly predictable.
However, the Saints made quite possibly the most underrated move of the offseason by acquiring Jared Cook at tight end, giving Brees his first explosive threat at the position since having Jimmy Graham in 2014.
Cook is the perfect security blanket. He should make up for some of Brees’ regression by giving him another reliable target on short and intermediate routes.
10. Philip Rivers (Los Angeles Chargers)
Rivers is fresh off quite possibly the best season of his career, but it’s the manner in which it ended that begs the legitimate question of whether or not he’s on the decline.
Rivers threw 2 interceptions in each of the final 3 games of the regular season. And he struggled to move the ball down the field in his two playoff games, completing only 56% of his passes on 5.9 yards per attempt. If he were some young buck with his future ahead of him this wouldn’t be so glaring, but it falls into a pattern of Rivers being turnover-prone and having up-and-down performances over the course of a season.
Rivers will be without Tyrell Williams and potentially without Melvin Gordon in 2019. But Mike Williams should be able step up and build upon a very productive 2nd year, Austin Ekeler should be serviceable at the very least in a feature back role and getting back Hunter Henry after he tore his ACL in 2018 should be of big help as well.
As long as his weapons are competent, Rivers should be a well above-average quarterback. But after how last season ended, I’m not so sure if he’ll be able to duplicate the elite performance he had for the better part of the 2018 regular season.
Honorable Mentions
Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
For much of last season, Jared Goff was legitimately in the MVP conversation. But then from week 13 on through the playoffs, Goff mostly performed at an average level.
Nevertheless, Jared Goff still exhibited too many elite traits last season for his poor finish to define him as he ranked near the top of the league in big-time throws and deep ball accuracy.
This year he gets back his most reliable target in Cooper Kupp. Don’t be surprised if he duplicates last season performance but displays a bit more consistency.
Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
It is yet another year of asking the question, “just how healthy is Cam Newton’s shoulder?” Early on through training camp his arm looks about as fine as it always has. But that’s how things looked after the first shoulder surgery back in 2017, so only time will tell how it holds up.
Last season he completed nearly 68% of his passes, shattering his previous career high of 61.7%. This is a result of the offense became less reliant on Cam making something out of nothing and more reliant him quickly getting the ball out of his hands to speed demons like Christian McCaffery, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Torrey Smith and Jarius Wright. He was also sacked on only 5.8% of his passes, breaking his previous career high of 6.3%.
If Cam Newton’s shoulder can remain intact, the Panthers offensive play-calling and improving young weapons should allow him to have sustained success.
Deshaun Watson (Houston Texans)
We talked about it earlier with Carson Wentz, quarterbacks typically struggle in their first season back from an ACL injury. As he turns just 24 years old, simply having a full healthy offseason as the opening day starter should bring improvement to Watson’s game. And now having what should be a halfway competent offensive line should bring even more improvement.
I would not be surprise if I’m proven wrong and he outperforms some of the quarterbacks that are listed in the top 10.
On The Rise
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
The Ravens plan to sustain the dominance Jackson showed while leading them to a 6-1 record by acquiring players that cater to his strengths.
They had the league’s best running game under Jackson and doubled-down by adding Mark Ingram to the backfield. They drafted an electric deep-threat in Marquise Brown with their first round pick to complement Lamar’s arm strength. And re-signed Nick Boyle to round out what might be the best tight end group in football as he plays alongside 2nd-year players Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst.
A front office can make or break a young quarterbacks career. And Baltimore intends upon carrying on Ozzie Newsome’s legacy by building around Lamar the right way. His individual talent along with the situation he was drafted into makes him one of the more promising young quarterbacks in football.
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