Top 10 Running Backs for the 2019–20 NFL Season
Criteria
This list isn’t about the past and comparing people’s legacies, it’s solely about how we project these players to perform this upcoming season.
And these are not fantasy rankings. This list has very little to do with who will have the better raw counting stats by year’s end.
It’s about how effective these players will be compared to their peers after factoring the talent (or lack thereof) and coaching staff (or lack thereof) that they have surrounding them.
1. Le’Veon Bell (New York Jets)
For the better part of Le’Veon Bell’s career, he has been universally considered the best running back in the NFL. And now he’s back. And I don’t think people are making enough of it.
This is the man who has the most career yards from scrimmage per game in NFL history. He’s the only back in NFL history to average 80+ rushing yards per game and 40+ receiving yards per game over the course of an entire career. He’s that guy. He’s the transcendent back of his generation.
And while the Jets don’t have the greatest run blocking known to man, Isaiah Crowell ran for 4.8 yards per carry behind the Jets offensive line last season and this was before they acquired Kelechi Osemele and Ryan Kalil.
Le’Veon’s legs should be as fresh as ever and his mind should be clear as ever with all of that guaranteed money in his pockets. It should be to no one’s surprise if he reclaims his crown as the league’s best back this season.
2. Saquon Barkley (New York Giants)
#PrayforSaquon is in full effect as the Giants traded their best offensive player in franchise history, reached in the draft for a quarterback that nobody believes in and have a receiving corps that is ravaged by injuries and suspensions.
However, I think there are some misconceptions about how the Giants lack of weapons will impact Saquon’s health and effectiveness.
Every team’s plan is to run their young backs into the ground while they are still on their rookie contract. So the dearth of a passing game around Saquon isn’t necessarily going to change that one way or another. If anything, the Giants making him the face of their franchise might end up saving him some miles on his body as they plan to keep him around for as long as they possibly can.
Also the impact quarterback and receiving play has on the production of running backs is largely overstated. Adrian Peterson ran for 2,000 with Christian Ponder, Jamal Lewis ran for 2,000 with Kyle Boller. Barry Sanders ran for 2,000 with Scott Mitchell, Eric Dickerson ran for 2,000 with Jeff Kemp. Great running backs are rarely hampered by bad quarterbacks.
Saquon should be fine from a health standpoint and will continue to produce at a high-level. Especially after the Giants improved their line with the additions of Mike Remmers (who will be returning to his natural position of right tackle) along with Kevin Zeitler.
The only real shame here is Barkley will be wasting his best years on uncompetitive football teams.
3. Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)
Before Mark Ingram returned from his 4 game suspension, Alvin Kamara was putting up video game numbers, leading the league in yards from scrimmage per game with 152.8 and total touchdowns with 6.
People question if he has the stature to withstand the workload of being a feature back for a full season, but he’s of a similar build to great backs like likes Marshall Faulk, Jamaal Charles, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis. And him working in tandem with Mark Ingram for the first two seasons of his career will give him much fresher legs than most great young running backs have heading into their 3rd season.
Expect him to be as busy as ever in the passing game as he’s always improving upon his already elite receiving abilities and Drew Brees will rely upon him more and more as his arm strength declines with age.
4. Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)
Zeke is in a win-win situation as far his reputation goes this season. If he does get a deal done with the Cowboys before the regular season, he’ll get right back into his scheduled programming of performing at an elite level for America’s Team.
If he doesn’t get a deal done by the start of the regular season, the world will bear witness yet again to the immense impact he has on the Dallas Cowboys and their passing game in particular.
According to ESPN’s Florida James, Amari Cooper caught 75% of his targets at 14.9 yards per reception and scored 6 touchdowns with Zeke on the field. However Cooper only caught 57% of his targets at 9.6 yards per reception with 0 touchdowns while Zeke was off the field.
On play-action plays, Dak completes 65% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a 82.8 QBR when Zeke is on the field. He only completes 49% of his passes at 6.3 yards per attempt with a 57.2 QBR when Zeke is off the field.
Zeke isn’t the league’s most elusive back, but his vision and his ability to consistently churn downhill makes him one of the league’s most reliable backs. His impact on the Cowboys offense is immeasurable.
5. Christian McCaffery (Carolina Panthers)
After struggling on the ground his rookie season, Christian McCaffery put on a show in his sophomore year and made the Panthers feel a lot better about drafting him 8th overall. Bumping his yards per carry from 3.7 in year 1 to 5.0 in year 2.
This season shouldn’t be much different than last season for McCaffery. The Panthers offensive line is still solid and Christian is still extraordinarily fast with great vision and pretty damn good elusiveness as well.
The only thing that may change for him is the threat Cam Newton presents in the read-option. Panthers running backs have benefited greatly from playing with Cam, but it remains to be seen how heavily the Panthers want to rely on Newton’s legs at this stage in his career.
With that being said, McCaffery possesses more than enough talents on his own to perform effectively without the assistance of a running quarterback. So another All-Pro caliber season should be expected.
6. David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)
During that 2016–2017 season, David Johnson looked like one of the greatest running backs the game has ever seen. I refuse to give up on him after one down season with an awful offensive coordinator and an awful offensive line while gaining his footing post-ACL surgery.
While I’m not sold at all on Kliff Kingsbury as head coach, there is good reason to believe he’ll utilize David Johnson much better than he was deployed last season.
As noted by Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett, Texas Tech was one of the only ten teams in all of college football to target running backs in the passing game more than 75 times.
Johnson’s passing targets dropped from 120 in 2016 to a mere 76 in 2018. So expect Kliff Kingsbury to get Johnson back to being a primary weapon the passing game like he deserves to be.
Johnson will also benefit greatly from running in the read option with the blazingly-fast Kyler Murray in addition to running behind an improved offensive line after signing JR Sweezy and Marcus Gilbert along with getting back DJ Humphries and Justin Pugh from injured reserved.
A bounce back season is on the way.
7. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams)
Knee injury rumors aside, I’ve never really been as big on Todd Gurley as everyone else. I think he’s very good. He has elite vision, great speed and he’s one of the best receiving backs in the NFL.
But for the past couple years people have universally considered him the best running back in the NFL and talk about him as if he’s a generational talent up there with the Adrian Petersons and LaDanian Tomlinsons of the world and I don’t think either of those things are remotely true.
He’s a mortal back who will struggle if his offensive line is struggling. He doesn’t have the best balance and he has shown middling elusiveness at best throughout his career save for a handful of highlight hurdles. This was all on full-display when CJ Anderson hopped off the couch and outperformed him behind the very same offensive line.
With that being said, Sean McVay is still in Los Angeles and his offensive line should remain one of the better run blocking units in the league although they did suffer the loss of Rodger Saffold heading to Tennessee.
Gurley’s touches are likely to decrease as a means to preserve him for the postseason, but he’ll still score tons of touchdowns, still utilize his elite vision and speed to gain yards in chunks and will still be an elite threat as a receiver out of the backfield.
8. Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns)
From the start of his rookie season until the second he was cut by the Kansas City Chiefs, Kareem Hunt was the best running back in football. He ranked 4th in total touchdowns and 9th in yards from scrimmage last season despite not playing 5 games.
He has good patience, great vision, great route running and great hands. Most importantly he’s been by far the most elusive back in the NFL over the course of the two seasons he’s played. He’s the total package.
There’s only so much damage he can do after serving an 8 game suspension barring the Browns making a deep playoff run. But we’ve seen Le’Veon Bell rightfully anointed as the league’s best back after only playing 12 games and seen Ezekiel Elliot rightfully anointed as one of the best back’s after playing only 10 games. So I’m going to give Kareem that same credit here and bank on him being the same Kareem Hunt he’s always been in those 8+ games he plays.
He and Nick Chubb will be one of the most devastating running back duos we’ve ever seen in the little time that they play together.
9. Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns)
Last season Nick Chubb Deebo’d the starting job from Carlos Hyde and never looked back. Posting the 2nd highest elusive rating in Pro Football Focus history since they started tracking the stat in 2009.
The Browns are going to miss Kevin Zeitler on the offensive line but if last season was indicative of what’s to come, Chubb should be a runner who transcends the quality of his blocking so that will only be but so consequential.
However, as great of a runner as Nick Chubb is, he isn’t all the way there as a receiver yet. When Kareem Hunt returns, chances are Chubb sees very limited action on passing downs. That’s the next step he’ll have to take if he wants to become a truly elite back.
10. Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)
Joe Mixon quietly, and I do mean quietly, led the AFC in rushing yards last season despite only playing 14 games and was 3rd in the entire league in rushing yards per game.
Much like Christian McCaffery, he saw a huge jump in his yards per carry average going from 3.5 yards per attempt his rookie season to 4.9 yards per attempt his sophomore season.
Sometimes young running backs just need more experience around the speed of NFL defenses before they can play their game. And getting more carries helps them get into a better rhythm as well. Joe Mixon got over his rookie yips in year 2 and now this level of production should be his new norm for the foreseeable future.
Honorable Mentions
James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers)
A lot of people credit Conner’s success to the Steelers offensive line and play-calling that saw the likes of a 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams produce at a Pro Bowl level when he replaced Le’Veon Bell.
And while I think the line and offense Conner plays in most certainly amplifies his production, some of the things Conner has done both as a runner and a receiver makes me believe that he is much bigger than the system he plays in.
He’s an athletic freak, and as long as he remains healthy he should be one of the most productive backs in football.
Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)
Devonta Freeman was always underrated even when he was completely healthy, so it’s no shock that people are forgetting about him a year after he only played in 2 games.
But he’s back, and when he’s healthy he’s one of the most well-rounded running backs in the league.
All signs in training camp point to him being 100% health-wise and this year he no longer has to split carries with Tevin Coleman, so don’t be surprised if he produces at a Pro Bowl level again this year.
Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers)
Melvin Gordon had a phenomenal season last year. Going from never rushing for more than 3.9 yards per carry in a single season all the way to averaging 5.1 a pop. The Chargers revamped their offensive line and Gordon was the main beneficiary.
When he’s on the field he’s one of the better backs in the league, but as of right now his football future looks shaky with him being in the midst of a holdout that doesn’t look like it will end anytime soon.
On The Rise
Derrius Guice (Washington)
Guice was well-known for his tackle-breaking ability as he spent his sophomore and junior years running through the entire SEC at LSU. And while he only had 6 carries in NFL preseason action before tearing his ACL, he showed very early that he would be able to duplicate some of his college success on the pro level. Running like a madman through arm tackles and always pushing the pile forward.
Washington’s offensive line won’t be nearly as imposing without Trent Williams, but Guice is the type of back that can make something out of nothing. He’ll be one of the more productive runners in the league this year if he can stay healthy.
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