Lessons to Learn from the 2023 Special Elections
The biggest takeaway that both parties can learn from the 2023 Special Elections in Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio? Appeal to the center. In all three states, voters made clear that extreme stances — particularly regarding abortions — are not appealing to the vast majority of Americans, Republican and Democrat alike. This election also offers two other takeaways for the major parties ramping up for 2024 — For Republicans: Solidify a clear message on abortion that does not alienate voters. For Democrats: Create a positive image of Joe Biden and his accomplishments on multiple levels of government. Less than a year out from Election Day, these challenges have already begun to show in races and ballot initiatives across the country.
In Virginia, Democrats scored big by flipping the previously Republican controlled House of Delegates while maintaining control of the Senate. This was a key race for Republicans, who had hoped to gain full control of the legislature in order to pass Governor Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban. In races across the state, candidates were quick to try and spell out their position before having it spelled out by their opponent. In Henrico County, incumbent Republican state Senator Siobhan S. Dunnavant, a practicing OB/GYN, began running ads clarifying her detailed position on the issue even before the state’s primaries. In the Loudon County senate race, businessman Juan Pablo Segura echoed the position of Gov. Youngkin, as did State Delegate Karen Greenhalgh of Virginia Beach and Lee Peters III, Republican delegate candidate for the newly redrawn 65th district covering Fredericksburg. All these candidates were defeated by their Democratic opponents. With this election, Virginia remains the only Southern state to not tighten abortion restrictions after the fall of Roe v. Wade. Even with candidates latching onto a more moderate stance, voters remain opposed to Republicans and tie them to a label of extremism on the issue — a label that could continue to burn them in future elections should they not take steps towards changing it on the national level.
In Kentucky, Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear was reelected to a second term as Governor, defeating Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron 52% to 47%. Beshear defied the odds against him in the deep red state which Trump carried by 26 points in the 2020 election. While the Trump and McConnell endorsed Cameron tried to label him as “Biden’s puppet” and tie him to National Democrats, Andy Beshear painted himself as non-partisan and garnered cross-party appeal with his message that “a good job isn’t Democrat or Republican,” while also attacking Cameron for his extreme position supporting a near-total abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Through effective messaging with an appeal to centrist and moderate voters, Andy Beshear retained Democratic control of the governor’s mansion even against a GOP supermajority within both chambers of the state legislature. While distancing himself from President Biden helped Beshear win reelection, it certainly won’t help Biden win reelection. Democrats need to be able to tie their successes to the President in order to project him as an effective leader of their party fit for a second term in the White House. On the Republican side, the continued success of Democrats within what some would consider to be a GOP stronghold should highlight the risks associated with their extreme messaging, particularly in regard to abortion, and warn National Republicans that they need to soften their positions if they want to take back control.
Finally, voters in Ohio enshrined abortion rights into the State Constitution as well as legalized recreational marijuana. The ballot measure known as Issue 1 amended the Ohio Constitution to include “an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment.” The passage adds to the list of wins for pro-choice advocates on ballot initiatives in Michigan, California, Vermont, Kansas, Montana, and Kentucky. The ballot measure known as Issue 2 made the purchase, possession, and growth of marijuana legal for recreational use by adults over 21. In a state where the governorship and both chambers of the legislature are under a large majority Republican control, this was another clear example of the disapproval of the party’s position on abortion even from their own voter base. Meanwhile, the Republican position on marijuana has shifted over the years. Reliably red states, like Mississippi and Louisiana, have decriminalized it and some have altogether legalized it, such as Alaska and Montana. On the federal level, some Senate Republicans have joined Democrats in efforts to allow dispensaries and other similar businesses to use major financial and banking institutions. This historic move appears to hint at a softening stance on the drug and could aid in courting moderate voters for 2024.
The 2023 Special Elections outline key challenges for both sides to overcome before next year. On the right, Republicans must clarify a stance on Abortion that does not alienate parts of their base. Even in red states like Ohio, voters are pointing out the dangers that the GOP will face should they not unite behind a more palatable stance on what might be the most important issue of the 2024 election. On the left, Democrats must create a positive image of Biden and his accomplishments. Successful candidates like Beshear shying away from the President will only serve to damage Biden’s already less than great image, as seen by his slipping poll numbers. Above all, it should be recognized that winning moderates wins elections, no matter how great the odds. Both parties must be careful to avoid being labeled as “radical” in their positions. Democrats in Texas are different from Democrats in California. Republicans in New York are different from Republicans in Alabama. Each party must successfully master the balancing act between their respective bases of voters to find success in what is gearing up to be another messy showdown between Trump and Biden.