THE GRAND EXTHIT UPDATE. . . All Systems Go

Ugly Old Goat
Sep 4, 2018 · 3 min read

Just this shorty to update THE GRAND EXTHIT . . . (pronounced with a lisp and a weak wrist).

Bitcoin continues a slow grind up while Eth holds steady in dollars but continues to lose basis btc. . . . bCrash rallied to over .09 basis btc. . .

The relative strength in bCrash can be explained in that the bagholders are concentrated in fewer hands than Eth . . . so in the short run bCrash can be pumped while it is much more difficult to coordinate an Eth pump. . . but phony bCrash pumps will only exasperate an already desperate situation.

I used the rally to re-establish trimmed short positions. . . so far with a successful result in the eth/btc and remain at point of entry in eth/usd and bch/btc.

I scaled in my re-entry shorts in the same way I recommend entering new positions, at half speed and double down where I would normally put my stop. I sold BCH/BTC and ETH/USD way too early but since I sold only half I was able to double down at the high end the rally. Meanwhile ETH/BTC worked like a charm and I trimmed my position again on the break down to new lows.

At the end of June when bitcoin was at tad over 6,000 and Eth a tad over .007 I expected Eth to reach .003 before bitcoin would reach 5,000. In spite of the bear market rally Eth/Btc declined under .004 with no sign a bottom has been reached.

The previous week bitcoin low is now 6641 and the two week low is 6223. Normally a sell-off below 6641 would be a buy with a stop at two week low. But if we are in a bull you should not get that opportunity . . . so if it goes down there now I doubt I will be a buyer.

The August high is 7710 . . . so a rally there should hit some stops . . . and a good time to trim some profits . . . if BTC fizzles that is the area it will fail . . . if we hold the next stop is the 8500 area. . . but a Flying W formation is not confirmed unless we reach 10,000 when you buy the first dip. . . we do all that 12,000–23,000 is likely.

Again, I am not a super-bull. Predictions of 100,000 this year are irresponsible gibberish. The best I see is a test of the highs which I expect we will fall well short of . . . and could be the setup for the long anticipated crash below 5,000.

The overwhelming driving force in bitcoin is the Exthit. And this makes for treacherous markets . . . because we really don’t know how this is going to play out. The market gives every indication that the Exthit will continue to support BTC and is a flight to safety. . . however, a total collapse of ETH and bCrash will likely to result in unknown government action . . . damaging the BTC ecosystem for a time.

BTC has been very trade-able on swing rallies . . . I have not done this . . . simply because my plate is very full with other things . . . will make my first public debut at Barelona cruise on Tone Vays podcast. . . so keep you eye out.

The past two weeks have seen a slow and steady rise in equity with every trade working . . . long btc, short perp/long dec spread/short eth/btc, short eth/dollar, and short bch/btc . . . I am in that wonderful space where I have found the groove!

Hope you have fared the same.

UOG

Ugly Old Goat

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Ugly Old Bitcoin Standard Bearer

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