The Basis Prevails Again. . .

While the market finally penetrated the first quarter low the basis on Sep futures went to a 130–160 point discount, making Sep futures the cheapest bitcoin anywhere. Such a steep backwardation made it extremely unlikely the market would collapse. . . and. . . of course. . . we tried. . . we failed. . . and instead we reversed.

As a position trader I am long bitcoin (Sep futures) and short a lot less ethereum. As a former large trader, I am now a wise small trader with the object of becoming a large trader again with OPM. (Other Peoples Money)

What now?

While we have a strong reversal, still nothing has changed. A rally above 6900 can be sold, but if we rally there this becomes the new two week high and penetration of two week highs will turn many indicators bullish.

Also, the market has been so choppy that it will be no surprise if we rally firmly above 6900 only to reverse and resume the downtrend.

So. . . Jack Be Nimble, Jack Be Quick, Jack Jumped Over the Candlestick. . . and burnt a hole in his pants!

If you bot the dip, you have tiger by the tail. . . and now comes the hard part.

Hope this helps.
UOG