The Aftermath & Implications

David Mungai
Aug 26, 2017 · 3 min read

As Kenyans await the Supreme court’s verdict on the just concluded election, it’s clear that what’s at stakes is much more than meets the eyes of the electorate.

A trip down memory lane will help highlight some of the things that have made this election a high-stake affair from the onset.

During the 2002 election the ruling party, KANU was dislodge from power by a coalition of parties under the then NARC coalition and the win was a resounding one. Then came the 2007 disputed elections of which PNU coalition managed to retain power by attaining support from several parties including KANU.

After these 2 elections, it was clear that it would be very difficult for any party to do what the old KANU had managed to do for decades, that is retain power as a single homogenous party.

After 2007 the emergence of parties with tribal leaning allegiance was very evident with only ODM having managed to somewhat maintain a national outlook but with its core loyal base being luo Nyanza.

In 2013 elections, the Jubilee alliance coalition swept its way into power by forming a coalition of TNA and URP, with both parties having majority of their support from Mt. Kenya region and rift Valley respectively. Having defeated CORD a coalition which was a coalition between, ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya, with support from Nyanza, lower eastern and Bungoma respectively.

After 2013 election, and backed with past election data it appeared as if future Kenyan governing parties would be coalition based outfits. It also appeared as if the broader the coalition the higher the chances of a coalition to capture government. This was evidenced by NASA’s attempts in building a broader coalition of parties. Jubilee on the other hand had a different outlook, they worked on coalescing the 2 main parties and affiliate parties into one homogeneous party. Jubilee’s approach was met by barrage of criticism across board as an attempt to stifle democracy.

As it turns out, the Jubilee’s party move was a well calculated political master stroke, this was confirmed after 2017 general elections having been able to win majorities in both houses, gubernatorial races, and the presidency with an unassailable number of votes. If the election of the president is upheld then the executive will enjoy almost unchecked powers in the precincts of parliament, having bagged super majority in both houses.

Even without delving into the presidential results the wins in the legislature and gubernatorial elections by Jubilee have debunked the coalition building efforts and by this, in effect, a larger implication on future elections. The opposition grouping is awake to this fact.

In the event that the presidential election is upheld by the supreme court and the ruling party holds together for the future then it’s almost certain that the Jubilee party can go on to win successive elections as a homogeneous party and this is something that the opposition is not ready to come to terms with.

It will be hard for the opposition coalition to regain a solid footing in national politics, this is because the parties that form the NASA opposition coalition are not willing to fold into one homogeneous outfit and mostly so because of selfish interests.

With William Ruto being the Jubilee’s party heir apparent, it will be foolhardy of the opposition to write off his 2022 presidential ambitions. With state largess at his disposal, it is even harder to see the Party disintegrate, it can only grow stronger.

It’s also wise to observe that, the future of the Jubilee party will firmly depend on progressive succession plans and a vibrant internal democracy to ensure that all the constituent party supporters interests are well taken care of in the party.

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