What Could Go Wrong?
This is the least volatile month for the Dow in history.
I have no idea when volatility picks up again but the other side of this calm period will be very interesting.
I really liked this Jim Chanos interview on the possible big changes in global capitalism. As Trump takes credit for the rise of the market since the election and the new highs in confidence consider this rung as a good reminder from that interview:
LP: What about the rise in bank stocks since the election? Are banks anticipating deregulation?
JC: Almost all stocks are going up, mostly because of the belief of lower taxation. But after Obama’s election, most stocks went down and kept going down until the following March — and then they tripled! So I wouldn’t read a lot into the first month or two.
It could be that banks are anticipating deregulation, but so what? Deregulated to what end? They’re still going to have the capital requirements, which are international. Putting capital standards on them is the biggest way in which they were regulated.
In the bigger picture, if you think this is an uncertain presidency and we’re not quite sure where he’s going and how events will conspire, it’s not that important to get too worked up because things will happen and you’ll have to react. If, however, this is a once-in-a-fifty-year change in global thoughts about capitalism, then you have to pay attention.
Originally published at Howard Lindzon.