What is really happening in Rwanda and Kivu? by Bernard LUGAN

Despite a total "blackout" of Kigali, there are rumors of fighting in southeastern Rwanda. They would oppose forces loyal to President Kagame to the FLN (National Liberation Forces), the armed wing of the MRCD (Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change). This heterogeneous coalition formed last July 15 would bring together opponents of the regime beyond their ethnic affiliations.

It would be formed by the meeting of tiny parties including the RDP of Paul Rusesabagina, the hero of the movie "Hotel des Mille Collines", the CNRD Wilson Irategeka and RRM Calliste Sankara. This movement would be supported by Uganda and Burundi.

According to our information, General Kayumba Nyamwasa, the former right-hand man of Paul Kagame who is currently a refugee in South Africa where he has been the subject of two assassination attempts by Rwandan authorities, would not (yet? ) joins the movement. His goal is indeed to overthrow Paul Kagame and not to help the takeover of a coalition comprising Hutus who do not forgive him his role supposed in the massacres of civilians during the conquest of northern Rwanda by the RPF In 1994. According to the MRCD, the end of the Kagame regime would be programmed for four main reasons:

- His responsibilities in the assassination of President Habyarimana. The movement even accuses Paul Kagame directly in more than precise terms: "the genocide became his business, while it was he who kicked it off the day he shot down the plane carrying Presidents Habyarimana of Rwanda and Ntaryamira of Burundi "(On the question, see my book" Rwanda, a genocide in questions ").

- The accusations about the massacres committed by his army, both in Rwanda and in the DRC,

- Dissent within the hard core of his regime,

- The desire of the countries of the sub-region to get rid of a regime that maintains disorder among its neighbors. Despite these claims, the Kagame regime is not isolated because it enjoys the support of Israel and despite some cooling, the United States still maintains a military contingent in charge of training. Rwandan officers. Kigali also attempted an opening towards Russia; not to mention its unusual and recent rapprochement with France illustrated by the support of Paris to the Rwandan candidacy at the head of the Francophonie. A decision to say the least "baroque" because Rwanda has abandoned French for the benefit of English as an official language ...

While caution must be exercised in the face of news from the region, it is no less true that:

1) After the wars of the years 1985-2008, a deep ethno-political recomposition occurred in the Great Lakes region around Uganda by Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda by Paul Kagame. However, beyond the solidarities inherited from ethnic realities (Hima-Tutsi world), from the recent past (common fights against the Obote regime in Uganda, against the Habyarimana regime in Rwanda, then against the Mobutu regime in Zaire), as well as the common membership of the English-speaking area, these two countries have conflicting interests. Rwanda’s policy in the eastern part of the DRC runs directly against that of Uganda, whose priority is to definitively settle the issue of oil from Lake Albert where France is present through the company Elf-Total.

2) For several years, the DRC and Rwanda have come together, so much so that several regional actors even speak of a secret pact uniting the two K’s (Kabila and Kagame) that some even go so far as to present as cousins ​​... Considering that he was not able to fight both Uganda’s encroachments in the Lake Albert region and Rwanda’s Kivu, President Kabila would have split the fire, leaving the North Kivu in Rwanda through its Congolese allies. In return, Kigali would have "surrendered" South Kivu to him with his own Banyamulenge allies. Hence the unusual rallying of the latter to the MRCD ...

3) In the DRC where, in the context of the presidential, legislative and regional elections of December 23, 2018, the situation is explosive, the question of hydrocarbon deposits of Lake Albert with its reserves estimated at several billion barrels, is at the heart of countryside. However, the water table is located under the waters of the lake, on both sides of the disputed border between Uganda and the DRC (Real Africa No. 9, September 2010). Uganda, which is in dire need of this resource and wants to enter into negotiations with a reliable Congolese partner, can no longer stand the destabilizing maneuvers in Kigali aimed at preventing a serious settlement with Kinshasa. that’s why President Museveni is waiting for the election of a new president who is less "loyal" to Rwanda. For Kigali, the main enemy is therefore the Ugandan president. However, "strangely", in recent weeks, the international specialized press has reported unverified information that the French services have informed President Museveni that Kigali has decided an attack on his plane. If such news were founded, it would mean that the French policy towards Rwanda would have suddenly changed and that, a few months after the spectacular warming of the relations between the two countries. As for France, Rwanda exists neither economically, nor politically, it would be legitimate to ask if the oil interests would not have motivated such a possible flip-flop. To further complicate the situation, the region is in contact with several areas of turbulence, from the CAR to South Sudan and many foreign players play their own game, starting with Russia, China and Israel. The facts being exposed, how can we analyze them? Without going into details, two main hypotheses are involved. On the one hand, the reality of the current events, so a serious crisis of the Kagame regime; on the other hand, extensive manipulation. - First hypothesis, the facts are proven. Uganda, which wants to settle the issue of oil from Lake Albert with a reliable Congolese government has decided to get rid of Paul Kagame, the ally of President Kabila. As for Hutu Burundi, its opposition to Tutsi Rwanda is included in regional politics. - Second hypothesis, we are in the presence of manipulation. The latter would be orchestrated by both Kigali and Kinshasa, ie by the two Ks (Kagame and Kabila), in order to allow the postponement of the Congolese elections and first of all the presidential election to which President Kabila can present itself. Paul Kagame can not accept the election of a president who will make the recovery of Kivu a fight of national unity because, without the plunder of the wealth of this region, the Rwandan economy would sink and the regime with. In this context, the "fighting" in the south of the country would be a pretext for, in the name of the right to sue against a postulated movement "heir to the genocidaires", to be able to carry the war in the DRC. But if the eastern DRC ignited, the elections of December 23, 2018 would be postponed and President Kabila would remain in power ... A situation to follow by knowing how to read through the lines ...

Source : http://bernardlugan.blogspot.com/2018/08/que-se-passe-t-il-vraiment-au-rwanda-et.html?m=1