Is Kentucky a Monster in Waiting?
Every year, Kentucky is considered to be the mecca of college basketball. When someone thinks of college basketball, their mind should immediately go to Kentucky. The Wildcats are consistently ranked in the top five in recruiting, make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament, have won a championship in the last five years, and produce the most NBA talent of any college. But with the accolades comes the criticism.
The criticism of coach John Calipari and Kentucky is as well-deserved as the praise. Calipari is in his eighth season at Kentucky and only produced one championship on a team that had a once in a generation player (Anthony Davis). Looking back at Cal’s teams, he should have three championships (2010, 2012, 2015). There weren’t any major injuries on the 2010 team and the 2015 team was deep enough to absorb the loss of Alex Poythress, yet Kentucky lost in the tournament to teams that shouldn’t have hung within ten points.
Again, Kentucky has found itself with one of the best recruiting classes, yet it is struggling. The Wildcats are currently ranked No. 15 in the AP poll with a 20–5 record. Malik Monk is a sure-fire top 10 pick, De’Aaron Fox is one of the most balanced guards in the country, and Bam Abedayo averages 13 points and 7 rebounds. On paper this is a team that should at most have two losses. But like 2014, Kentucky finds itself losing games to inferior opponents.
This isn’t to say Kentucky is going to lose in the first round of the NIT, but we’re at the point where a Sweet Sixteen would be a welcome surprise. When you are the premiere team that always plays on national television, you should not be finishing worse than the Elite Eight each year. So is Kentucky poised for a run?
This team could have a 2013–14 Kentucky finish. That was the team that became infamous for Cal’s tweaks. They lost 11 games that year (twice at Arkansas) and went into the tournament ranked as a 8 seed. They also went into that tournament having lost in the SEC championship game to Florida. Then the Wildcats went on an amazing run full of buzzer beaters all the way to the National Championship against UConn. That team produced two first round picks, Julius Randle and James Young, which seems to be the vibe that this current team could produce. Also, they finished the season ranked 22nd, not a far cry from the current 15th ranking.
Kentucky does have the tools to make a deep run with Monk scoring 22 a game on 49–41–82. De’Aaron Fox is averaging 15–4–5 on 47–17–72. Those are stats you would expect from a third best player on the team. Unfortunately, the Wildcats’ third best player, Isaiah Briscoe, averages 14–5–4 on 47–34–67. Aside from three-point shooting, he and Fox have similar stats, which again are perfectly suitable for the third option.
Can Kentucky make a run? Absolutely. But it has to come at the expense of Monk being hot, but Monk suffers from consistency issues, which most of this team struggles with. If he catches fire at the right time and can break his trend of scoring 38 one night and 11 the next, Kentucky can 100% will make a run in the tourney. Kentucky needs that second player to make a deep run, someone has to step up when Monk disappears, and until that happens, this is a Sweet Sixteen team at best.
