The next 34 days will define Canada’s future

We find ourselves in a historical moment. What we do in the next month could fundamentally shape Canadian politics and the very fabric of this country. In proroguing Parliament, and announcing a Throne Speech, Prime Minister Trudeau has created an opening for a confidence vote. The Liberals need the NDP to vote on September 23rd, or we face an election.

In his announcement on the proroguing, Prime Minister Trudeau’s comments were an aspirational stump speech aimed squarely at the NDP and progressives. He called for a society that supports the “99%”, he talked about “building back better” and a “green recovery”. He promised a plan that will truly recover from COVID-19. But this is not a plan he aims to negotiate with us, unless we act.

There are two ways forward. Option 1 is that the NDP does backroom dealings to try and get concessions from the Liberals in return for their vote. Many insiders will refer to what happened in 2005 when then NDP leader Jack Layton fought for $4.6 billion from the Liberals in social spending. This would set up the NDP as a pragmatic party that can get things done, and party faithful would hope that it would propel them to more power in the next election.

But there is another way. For all of us to approach the next 34 days as a transparent, democratic, visionary campaign that attempts to have the debate on the future of this country in the public domain. Here is how:

(1) Lay out a transformative joint vision: Progressives, environmentalists, labour and social groups must put forward a unified aspirational call for what the future direction of Canada should be. The Liberals will try to offer minor reforms to labour unions, and the NDP for their vote. A joint vision will allow the consolidation of power and allow for greater wins. It would set forward a people’s platform that would be the counterpoint to the Liberal throne speech on September 23rd. Such a plan would have to reflect existing progressive calls and demands including* (August 28 Update: I’ve created a new list, see here):

• A national housing and childcare plan;
• Jobs guarantee and guaranteed income support;
• Full immigration status for all;
• Defunding the RCMP;
• Clean, drinking water for Indigenous people and LandBack;
• Safe September;
• Just green recovery; and
• Taxing the super rich and COVID profiteers.

(2) Campaign in public: Town halls, assemblies, petitions with public counters, marches, could all be directed towards this unified vision spearheaded by social movement forces or political parties. Similar to an election campaign, mainstream and social media would be avenues for debate on a just recovery plan that to date we have not been able to do. The NDP or the Greens could position themselves as champions of this vision early on. This would force the Liberals to be the ones to respond to or refuse popular demands.

(3) Treat people like they are politically mature: Jagmeet Singh could be encouraged to effectively campaign for the broadest joint demands and vision while clearly articulating to people that NDP can only win what social movements fight for. Regular assessments could be made about how much public momentum is behind demands, and whether triggering an election would be appropriate if all of the demands are not met. The NDP could release its fundraising figures and its membership numbers weekly and articulate its strength and its weaknesses in regular updates. So when the decision came to support the Throne Speech or not and therefore avoid or trigger an election, the reasons to do so would be clear.

(4) Postpone the decision on the vote of confidence: Many commentators believe that the NDP will vote for Trudeau’s Throne Speech no matter what as it simply has no resources to fight another election. It is also possible that the Liberals may want an election, and feel strongly that they could win a majority. Such calculations fundamentally make the work of doing politics impossible, and weakens all our ability to negotiate. Instead, progressives and the NDP could approach this moment as a mini-elections campaign, trying to build support for the most transformative political demands and then asking the NDP to make a determination on the vote closer to the date of the Throne Speech.

Make no mistake, this will be difficult to do but there are significant opportunities and reasons to do this now.

First, Trudeau has effectively agreed to spend, choosing a path away from “balanced budgets” and austerity towards broadening public and social services. He has also effectively made it clear that the Liberals will provide concessions to the NDP in some way. This could be pharmacare or childcare or another one of the signature NDP demands from the last elections. This means that the NDP is in a powerful negotiating position, and it is likely to win some concessions. More importantly, its ability to win those concessions is not affected in any way by fighting for more, and in public. By approaching this moment as a way to push a much broader and progressive agenda, progressives and the NDP have the potential to broaden their base, and membership as well as win more reforms than if we were to reserve ourselves to separate lobbying and backroom negotiations.

Second, we are in a moment of increased political mobilization and organization. Across the country, tenants and homeless people are fighting for housing justice. Parents are mobilized for a safe return to school. The movement to disarm policing continues in waves. Immigration rights reform campaigns calling for single-tier immigration are in the news daily. Climate justice remains at the forefront of everyone’s minds. A vision and plan that unifies these struggles and proposes would bring together various social movements often left outside of broad political plans, even as they are central to shaping public discourse and narratives.

It would also bring together movements that are waging and winning struggles, as well as those that are struggling. Particularly, labour organizations that have seen a decline in membership during COVID-19 and loss of dues are on the backfoot. Particularly in provinces controlled by Conservatives (Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and PEI), many unions are attempting to lock-in multi-year contracts for fear of austerity cuts coming down the line.

Public campaigning for a broad vision would inspire membership, build up power, allow for doing structural assessments of strengths and weaknesses inside movements while winning reforms from the federal government to off-set attacks at the provincial level. This would strengthen all social movement that engaged in this progress including the labour movement.

The greatest counterpoint to this proposal is that it effectively goes against the insider politicking and gaming that is central to political culture at the national level in political parties, NGOs, and organizations. It also requires proposing a unified vision and calls for unity not at the lowest common denominator level of so-called pragmatic politics but aspirational, highest demands that are kinds of reimagining of our society most people need to convince them to take political action.

The urgency of this cannot be overstated. Canada is one of the most powerful economies in the world. While racialized, working class and poor people have suffered in the last 6 months, much of the worst crisis has been averted due to immense spending. The entire enterprise is being artificially propped up. Just as one example, the Bank of Canada has been spending $5 billion every week for months to ensure the economy does not collapse. Remember that clean drinking water on Indigenous reserves in Canada would cost only $3.2 billion. We have a moment right now to propose a path forward that imagines a different society that suddenly government is willing to pay for and people want it to pay for.

In 34 days, the elites of the Liberal Party of Canada will come back with their vision for the future. They expect the rest of us to wait quietly, while they buy off the NDP through a single concession. They are certain that even if an election is triggered, their’s will be only vision that is being debated.

Today, we get to say NO. We get to propose our vision for what recovery from COVID-19 looks like. Many of us have said that we refuse a return to the normal. The time to do that is now.

*This is just an initial list for discussion — much more can and should be added through direct conversations between social movements.