Outdoor Business in a World With COVID-19

Hi there👋

As a representative of an outdoor tech startup in Japan, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking on how the coronavirus epidemic is affecting the outdoor industry right now, and how it might drastically change the business landscape in the future. I’ve decided to take up writing to help me sort out some of my thoughts on the topic.

Things have changed quite a bit in the last several months, with new social distancing measure to prevent the spread of Novel Coronavirus (or COVID-19). There’s no question that a variety of industries are being negatively affected, from tourism to leisure. The outdoor industry is no different, as is with my company, a startup based in Tokyo that operates “offto”, an online service that allows you to browse and seamlessly book a wide range of outdoor gear for rental in Japan.

Of course the ideal scenario would be for the situation to be resolved as soon as possible, but according to researchers from Harvard University, our relationship with COVID-19 won’t be a short run but a marathon that will last for a year or longer. If that’s the case, it’s important to consider what can be done now in a world where we must coexist “WITH” COVID-19 rather than considering what can be done in a world “AFTER” COVID-19.

Here I’d like to share an idea proposed by Mr.Kazuto Ataka, the Chief Strategy Officer of Yahoo Japan Corporation and author of the book “Issue Driven”. In his blog (sorry, blog is only available in Japanese) Ataka writes about the direction we could be heading in a world with COVID-19.

The figure above is a matrix summarizing Ataka’s idea that society in Japan will shift from one that is concentrated in urban spaces characterized by office buildings and city culture (the bottom left quadrant), to one that is closer to the outdoors (upper right quadrant). This shift is a natural outcome based on measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID-19, from what we do, to where we choose to go, and the types of transportation we select to get us there.

The change described here is modeled after Tokyo, but I think it’s possible that the same can be said for other cities like New York, London, Vancouver, and Berlin along with other cities around the world. I feel that we are on the verge of a major transformation of society, human behavior, and sense of values.

In a scenario where society shifts towards one closer to nature and the outdoors, characterized by beaches, mountains, and large parks, how might we, the people that work in the outdoor industry, access this change and help it develop for the better?

This article is about what I think now as an individual that loves the outdoors and is involved in the outdoor business. Some of what I write might come true, but other things might go in a completely different direction. The reality is nobody will know what the outcome will be like until a few years later, so I’d be happy if you read this article casually and with a grain of salt.

The Way We Enjoy the Outdoors Will be Changed

Towards my personal goal of tackling the broader question of what an outdoor business landscape will look like, I’ve been thinking about how the outdoors will be enjoyed in a world with COVID-19.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, it was common for urban dwellers to travel from city to countryside in order to access the outdoors (left in the figure above). With the current state of affairs and social distancing in mind, there has been a change in behavior where people are limiting travel and being more selective about their options for transportation. This will lead to a general shift in the relationship between city, countryside, and transportation when seeking out nature and the outdoors in everyday life. The options we have in this scenario would be 1) Living in the countryside and enjoying the outdoors, 2) Enjoying the outdoors in urban areas, and 3) Adjusting how we travel between cities and the countryside with measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

1. Living in Countryside and Enjoying the Outdoors

Telecommuting has become part of our new reality. Of course, there are some industries where this isn’t easy, but at least for the companies that are capable, we’ve seen a shift towards that model of work. Day to day communication is possible using the technology available to us, and speaking for at least myself and some of my peers, it seems telecommuting is sufficiently productive. In the future, even if COVID-19 situation settles down, I predict that there will be at least fewer crowded workplaces with everyone in the office at once. I believe there has already been an irreversible shift in that regard. If telecommuting becomes a new norm that is broadly adopted by corporate policy, there may be a large segment of people that choose to move to the countryside maintaining the same job and salary.

As living areas will shift away from city to the countryside, this will bring us closer to beaches and mountains, which used to be farther away. The outdoors, which we used to think of as an out of the ordinary experience will become a more everyday experience. You won’t have to travel all the way from the city, making the outdoors much more accessible. Such a future seems possible.

Naturally, the more opportunities you have to be exposed to the outdoors, there will be more interested in outdoor recreational activities as well. The first step in this case will be to buy or rent outdoor gear. The price for outdoor gear is not cheap (up to several thousand dollars if you’re looking for a good set of camping gear). When you don’t know if you’re going to continue the activity, it doesn’t make sense to buy a set of gear right away. More and more I think people are going to try out gear using rental/sharing services first to see if they are interested in the activity, and what sort of gear suits their style. In North America and Europe, this “Rent-to-own” business model is gradually increasing, especially in the camera and home electronics industry. A good example would be Rent-a-center, a home electronics rental company that has been leading the industry in that area. I believe we’re going to see a similar increase in the outdoor industry as well.

2. Enjoying the Outdoors in Urban Areas

Over the next few years, city spaces will transform mirroring human behavior and business practices that avoid enclosure. This means running and exercising in parks rather than indoor gyms, more open terraces for eating and drinking, and more outdoor events that will become a part of everyday life. The concept of “Urban Outing” will become more widely recognized as a way to enjoy the outdoors in the city as an alternative to traveling to the countryside to enjoy the outdoors. There will be all sorts of new business ideas to help accelerate this.

As it is recommended that we refrain from going out, recently I’ve seen more people that are enjoying camping in their own yards, balconies, and rooms on social media. In a world with COVID-19 we’re likely to see new products specializing in balcony camping for example, as well as more properties based on the concept of urban outing, such as those being developed by Snow Peak (a Japanese company that makes outdoor gear and apparel) and Mitsui Fudosan (one of the largest real estate companies in Japan). On weekday evenings, rooftop terraces of commercial buildings may be used for hands-on outdoor classes and small scale events where you can learn how to build a tent or make a fire. Parents might find it interesting to send their kids to go to urban outing classrooms after school to hone their skills and resourcefulness.

3. Adjusting How We Travel With Measures to Prevent the Spread of COVID-19

The third option is structurally the same as before the pandemic, but at least for the next few years there will be less large group travel by bus or train. Instead, there will be travel with smaller groups using private vehicles or bicycles. By changing the means of transportation from group tours with fixed destinations to private cars with more mobility, there will be more flexibility when choosing potential destinations. Activity tours will become more individualized and offer full/semi-customized packages that caters to individual needs such as Airbnb’s Experiences and Adventures. Mt.Fuji in Japan is a world famous destination that’s very crowded during summer season. Instead of climbing there, we might see people turning to the Japanese Alps or hiking low mountains in different areas. As destinations become more diverse, the curated medias that introduce various locations will become more popular. We will see more YouTubers that introduce adventure trips.

Also, we might see more people enjoy traveling in small groups in itself as an outdoor activity. Recently, the term “Van Life” has become quite popular in Japan. Many more are going to live and work remotely, moving from countryside to countryside to enjoy the outdoors.

Recently the Ministry of Environment in Japan has begun planning to provide a budget to improve the environment for telework in national parks. Encouraged by this trend, campgrounds will gradually increase services like internet and wi-fi in response to an increase in work holidays and company retreats. It is possible that more companies will use these services on weekdays in small teams. For campgrounds that were originally conceptualized for leisure during the holidays, this is an opportunity to flatten the fluctuations in occupancy by increasing business use on weekdays.

In Conclusion

Thanks for reading. These were just some of my thoughts on how people might enjoy the outdoors and possible businesses that fit into a future with COVID-19. My team and I are focusing on how we can flexible to adjust to these changes as organically as possible. I’d appreciate for your continuous support as well ;)