The Cold War Season 2

Hasan Ahmad
Aug 9, 2017 · 7 min read
Source: History.com

Last time on the cold war we witnessed decades of proxy war in countries such as Vietnam, Iran and South Korea. A passage of time spanning from the end of world war 2 to the end of the soviet union. From 1945 to 1991 the world was in the grip of two ideologies competing over land, power and security for its citizens. Free states such as Berlin were then the hub of geopolitical activity. Furthermore, decisions made by our leaders shaped the course of History for as long as time may allow. The Berlin blockade, the cuban missile crisis and the escalation of the space race were a few episodes which helped make the first season dramatic, nail bitting and explosive. Now, the year is 2017 and over 25 years later season 2 looks like it is ever closer. Events in the Gulf states, the rise of national religious fronts, the ever growing inequality in the western world and the rise of power in countries such as North Korea are all episodes which are bringing us closer to the inevitable. The Cold War is likely to be renewed for another season. The questions is when?

The Syrian Question.

In 2011 the world was gripped by the Arab spring which started in Egypt and spread to Libya then ultimately concluding, for the time being, in Syria. Bashar Al Assad and his forces since then have used heavy bombing, incurred human rights violations and also recently used the chemical weapon Sarin in which 70 people were killed.

Notably, this wasn’t the first time Assad had used chemical weapons. The Ghouta chemical attack in 2013 was the first instance in which chemical weapons were used since the end of the Cold war. This was an attack by an alleged surface to surface missile in which an estimated 1700 people were killed. The use of Sarin was confirmed by the UN 4 days later.

The situation in Syria is hard to comprehend at times due the various treaties, groups and parties involved. Additionally, living in a society where you are only presented with one perspective on the situation it can be hard to really understand what is going on in a country miles away. Some people will believe what the media says and others will completely flip the headlines on their heads and portray a perspective which is equally as valuable. This human instinct we have. A sixth sense which is used to investigate and interrogate what we are told forms the zeitgeist of our time. Syria, like it or not, is a failure we have encapsulated. Something you and I have failed to understand. The sense of not knowing what is actually going on makes us feel uneasy and consequently helps divide a harmonic society as we begin to blame others for failures which don’t lie with them.

Therefore, when we see Trump launch 59 tomahawk missiles on an airbase we feel various emotions. A sense of triumph blended with confusion and anxiety are common. These are emotions and feelings felt by many in the 1st season of the Cold War. They were also expressed during the culture of that time, in songs like ‘Eve of destruction (1965)’ by Barry Mcguire. Fast forward half a century and we have bands such as the black-eyed peas releasing songs such as ‘Where is the love’.

As a human race, we always look at our past and highlight horrific war crimes, mass genocides and poor leadership. Then, we put these into our school curriculums and argue that the mistakes of our past will never be repeated. It can be said that Syria is an example of how locking things up in school curricula is failing. As a society, we fail to learn from our mistakes not because we don’t understand what they stand for but because we fail to be analytical and challenge our values on a regular basis. Would you the reader argue that the deaths of thousands via bombing, chemical attacks and migration are something which supports our values? I know that many of us feel that the bombing by the Assad regime is wrong in every way. However, when Trump launched those missiles wasn’t he simply retaliating and corroborating the situation. Yet, we feel a sense of victory when it occurs.

One thing is clear, this Cold War whenever we decide it begins will not only be damaging physically but also mentally for the minds of the old and wise as well as the fresh graduates and newborns who will enter the world with what will then be false hope.

ABC News: Silk Road

The Asian Dilemma.

Asia plays a large part in modern economics, politics and international relations. Countries such as China, Japan and North Korea played a large part in the war against communism last time and are equally as likely to play a large part in the renewal too.

China it has to be said has risen to fame under President Xi Jingping. Though not all for the right reasons. It is clear that China has had exponential economic growth driven by exports and low cost of production as well as a very strong, modern and mobile military. Business Insider coins the Chinese military 3rd as of 2015. It is clear that since the cold war 5 decades ago the Chinese have upgraded taking a quality over quantity approach with there latest military spending.

However, China are also heavily investing in supply side policies both nationally and internationally. The Silk Road which goes through Asia and through Europe is being seen as a concerted effort to expand the Chinese economy and also change the face of China in the next couple of decades. The construction of the road as resulted in pacts with Pakistan. The pact is evidence of China’s aim of spreading influence in the near future. This is surprising as during the Cold war China went through a larger revolution which lead to them internalising benefits rather than spreading their power with neighbouring countries. This in adverted form of alignment can be seen as a strategic move for the country economically and more important politically as China aims to dominate financial markets and the world economy within the coming years.

Therefore, the changes we can see are that China will aim to use its power to control the next Cold war the same way the USA did in the first instillment. Using it’s financial and economic power China will aim to replicate what the USA did in the form of the European recovery program which provided aid to a crumbling Europe after WW2. Hence, it would be silly to not factor in China as a big power and influencer if the Cold war were to begin once more.

The rise of political populism

The rise of populism and isolationism.

Populism has taken centre stage in todays political atmosphere. Politicians such as Trump and Le Pen have offered alternatives to the same old politics people have learnt not to trust. Some have been successful and some have been close to success. The importance of this is clear. For the most part candidates running populist campaigns have been relatively new politicians holding 1 or 2 political positions in the past. This lack of experience poses a high level of threat when it comes to foreign policy and how the nation could possibly react to provocative moves. It is very easy for a politician who has never held elected office to mis understand situations and not listen to advisors. Therefore, making foreign policy thin ice when it comes to the decisions that could be made. Relating back to the idea of another Cold War populist politicians seem to act as a catalyst towards alternative peace. This is a form of peace which requires them to be provocative but also due to their lack of experience it is something they naturally converge to.

Another factor which plays a large part in politics these days is the rise of isolationism. From an era of globalisation which involves trade and countries working together to solve issues like climate change we are seeing this shift through political phenomenon such as Brexit and Trumps criticisms of the Paris climate accords. In this respect the new Cold war could be something completely different as countries aim to stay independent and not align. Therefore, making correct foreign policy decisions will be even more necessary as countries don’t aim to align and could get aggravated by policies which hurt them

If, the Cold war is to be renewed then we could see the birth of a new proxy war format in which One country could be engaged in multiple wars at the same time which would form the larger Cold War. We could see a war in which exercising military power on 3rd world countries could be seen as the parameter we use to define success and failure.

The rise of populism has introduced a new perspective into how foreign leader will act in times of desperation and national security. Though this hasn’t been tested extensively yet the outcome could define the way a second Cold war could play out

Conclusion.

It can be seen that the Cold war is destined to return. With heightening tensions and the rise of terrorism pressure is increasingly exacerbated on our our world leaders. When the tensions becomes too much to handle a country will snap and when that happens we will be watching, glued to our screens wondering where the storyline is going to take us next.

Hasan Ahmad

Written by

Reaching out to give you a new perspective on life.

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade