Grading the Summer of 2024’s Biggest Football Transfers (So Far)
Real Madrid and Bayern *finally* get their man plus Euro and Copa América standouts are on the move.
With the Euros and Copa América in the rearview, it’s time to start looking ahead to the 2024–25 club season, and the transfer market–though sure to pick up steam with the senior international tournaments done–is already churning with a number of big deals complete. Let’s dive into some of the biggest deals of the summer so far and see who passed with flying colors and which clubs need to go back to the drawing board.
Kylian Mbappé — PSG to Real Madrid — Free
The worst kept secret in football is officially official as the world’s best player joins a side who are comfortably one of the two best in the world. An A+ grade for Real Madrid is obvious irrespective of any money paid out to Mbappé or his family because of the talent he adds to the squad. Euro 2024 was far from his best football, but even then, there were sprinkles of the brilliance that makes him unstoppable on his day. While playing for Real Madrid adds more scrutiny than playing in the French league, Mbappé will be free of the intense attention of his home press (something he cited as a frustration during his PSG tenure) and the ridiculous distractions that come with playing at Nasser Al-Khelaifi’s PSG. The Parisien side probably deserve an F for seeing the world’s best player leave on a free but also had to accept that as part of the terms of re-signing him in 2022. The gamble to keep him at the club and try to push for the Champions League title is one I think they’d make again, though I wonder if they could’ve handled last summer differently and achieved better results in his final season. In any case, PSG get a D as their calculated gamble did fail to pay off, but they now have a lot of freedom with their wage bill as they recruit this summer.
At Madrid, the question likely won’t be whether Mbappé and company win but, rather, how much and how often. Between their usual three titles, the domestic and continental Super Cups, the newly formed Intercontinental Cup in December and the newly rebranded Club World Cup next summer in the US, Real will be the first team with a chance at an unprecedented septuple. Though they’re unlikely to win it (and need other key signings to even stand a chance), the fact that it’s even feasible is thanks to Mbappé’s arrival. Because while Madrid are champions of Europe, there were also moments last season when they were far from imperious. With the Frenchmen in their ranks, there should be fewer of those moments, and my expectation would be that Mbappé’s level will rise considerably as he finds a better physical groove (after last season’s preseason circus) and settles into a more conventional work environment (as compared to whatever PSG had become). His game, of course, can get better, but that’s likely not even needed. A 10–15% bump in his consistency alone would be enough to push him towards his first Ballon d’Or, help Madrid lift a handful of trophies and end any debate on who is the world’s best player.
João Palhinha— Fulham to Bayern — €51M
For me, one of the most difficult transfers of the summer to evaluate so far. On one hand, Palhinha has been a dynamic-changing player for Fulham in the EPL. Yet, for whatever reason, Palhinha — to me — registers as the type of player who’s a bit more difficult to judge as a fit in a more dominant team. Because though success or failure managing the transition game is critical in the Bundesliga and the Portuguese international can contribute there, it’s slightly more difficult to judge how he’ll fit into the Bayern possession game when lower-level teams fall into a block and the ask is to unlock it. That said, maybe Vincent Kompany doesn’t want or need Palhinha to do much of that anyways.
With the collection of creatively-gifted players in front of him (and more help available from behind in the form of Alphonso Davies or whoever is eventually recruited to replace him), Bayern should have plenty of players on hand who can help unlock a low block. Palhinha is a reliable passer of the ball and his subtle continuance of a Bayern action may be of as much value as the ability to pick out the key pass that slices open a defense. In either case, his ability to get in the air, go to the ground or win the ball any other way you might ask has been nearly unmatched over the last two seasons in the Premier League. Bayern’s defensive midfield (and especially Leon Goretzka) has rarely been a hugely positive decider of games in recent seasons and Palhinha has the qualities needed to change that. I still want to see this in action before I grade too much higher (because this is only the right price if you’re getting a truly dominant 6), but it’s hard to argue with Palhinha’s track record in the Premier League and at Euro 2024 meaning I’ll give Bayern an A-. Fulham lost out on some money compared to doing this deal a year ago (~€65M), and it’s hard to say whether that was worth it given they were comfortably a mid-table side last season. In any case, they more than doubled their investment from two summers ago; so, this has to be an A for Fulham.
Quick Hits
Ismaël Koné (Watford [B+] to Marseille [A], €12M):
Koné is hardly the flashiest of signings from this summer’s crop, but he may be one of my favorites. His energy and ball-winning ability stood out in MLS, but there was no guarantees that would translate overseas. At Watford, he was solid once again, but the Championship — while competitive — is never a perfect litmus test. In the Copa América, Koné played perhaps the highest level match of his life in the semifinal against Argentina and was still one of the best players on the field. To make a long story short, the rises in level of competition have not lessened Koné’s ability to be impactful, and his relentlessness in the midfield is not something that can be taught. Thus, a budget move to Marseille would make a load of sense under any circumstances but feels especially promising with former Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi taking over at the Velodrome. Marseille have solid midfield options in house in the form of Jordan Veretout and Geoffrey Kondogbia, but I feel that Koné — with all of his current ability and plenty of room to grow at 22 — could be one of the club’s standouts in the center of the park sooner rather than later. Watford have made a solid profit in a short space of time, but will feel disappointed that they didn’t retain Kone long enough to get promoted and significantly boost his price tag with EPL exposure.
Georges Mikautadze (Metz [A] to Lyon [A], €18M):
Add the €18M here to the €3M they profited from a sale and buyback with Ajax, and Metz have profited over €20M from the development of a prospect they acquired for free from AS Saint-Priest in 2017. For a club of Metz’s size that yo-yos between the divisions in France, that’s seriously good business — even if it means losing a player who really stood out for them in their 2023 promotion and 2024 fight for survival. For OL, the business is also good as they bring a Lyon-native and one-time academy prospect back to the club. Many, of course, will chalk this up as a signing based strictly on his Euros performance, but Pierre Sage has seen firsthand how well Mikautadze performed in France a season ago — meaning this is anything but a reactionary signing. Of course, the resale potential from Lyon (a perennial European contender) is also much higher than it would be at Metz. If Mikautadze can produce similar performances to the ones he did at Metz over the next 12–24 months, teams in the tier just above Lyon will likely offer 30–40 M for a player that will still be at the start of his prime (won’t turn 24 until October). Of course, if his level can continue to improve at the Groupama, his new employers could stand to make an even bigger profit in the not too distant future. But let’s not look too far ahead, Mikautadze’s quality improves Lyon’s attacking options in the here and now — especially with Alexandre Lacazette on the other side of 30.
Enzo Le Fée (Rennes [B-] to Roma [A], €23M):
Rennes seemingly wedged themselves between a rock and hard place with the signing of Le Fée as he arrived for €20M in 2023 and leaves for a slim profit just twelve months later. Which raises the question — what were the club’s immediate plans with this player? Le Fée, while a talented creator, was never likely to draw the attention of the biggest clubs (beyond perhaps domestic lurkers PSG) — meaning a fee of much more than €20M was never too likely to be recouped for his services. It would seem, instead, that Rennes acquired the midfielder from Lorient with Champions League ambitions but fell flat with their 10th place finish in Ligue Un a season ago. If Julien Stéphan’s side were gearing up for the UCL (or perhaps a European run of any kind), Le Fée is, perhaps, more likely to stick around. In any case, Rennes recouped their money and get a grade to reflect the mostly stagnant nature of this deal. For Roma, Le Fée is a worthy investment. He’s still only 24 years old, can add some creativity to a team that, outside of the oft-injured Paulo Dybala, were often in need of a spark and seemingly fits with the direction Daniele De Rossi took the club’s football after taking over for José Mourinho. Roma, however, have not been big spenders and need Le Fée to turn into a regular starter if this investment is to be justified. He has the talent; the only question is how he’ll settle in the Italian capital.
