Grading the Summer of 2024’s Biggest Football Transfers (So Far) Pt 2
Juventus upgrade their midfield, West Ham make a big swing and Bayern go back to the Premier League for more.
The summer transfer window is in full swing, and the end of the major senior international tournaments means that players, clubs and agents can now put full focus on arranging plans for next season. Let’s dive into another batch of transfers (read part 1 with more here) and see which clubs are getting a jump start on a good summer of business.
Douglas Luiz — Aston Villa to Juventus— €51.5 M
Given Luiz’s talent, I like this transfer for Juventus though the price point is somewhat difficult to judge in the context of related swap deals between the Turin side and Villa for Enzo Barrenechea (€8M) and Samuel Iling-Junior (€14M). Juventus’ midfield has largely been sliding backwards for sometime and while there are exciting young prospects slowly breaking into the first team, Luiz is a young player (26) who is already proven at the highest level and ready to step into the first XI immediately alongside the dependable Manuel Locatelli. Luiz can play in multiple positions, provides value on and off the ball and, perhaps most importantly for Juve, chips in with a fair few goal contributions (20 in 53 games alast season) for a player of his profile and position.
The subsequent move of Luiz’s partner, Alisha Lehmann, to the club has garnered quite a bit of (mostly negative) attention from the media but what the Brazilian brings to Juve seems to have been lost in that. Pep Guardiola and Manchester City will likely spend again this summer trying to find a suitable player that can add depth to their midfield while also backing up Rodri, but they may well have solved that problem several summers ago if Luiz’s paperwork to play for City had gone through. Given he’s had that quality of admirer for some time, I see little to no reason why Luiz wouldn’t become one of the staples of the Juventus XI for the next 5–10 years. Time will tell whether Thiago Motta can get the most out of the Brazilian in Italy, but I’ll give this deal a solid A for Juventus. For Villa, the deal also seems solid as they bring back a couple of interesting young players, triple their original investment and make an extra 20 or so million Euros compared to what they would’ve gotten if City brought Luiz back to the Etihad during his buyback window a few summers back. Because the market value figures suggest he’s actually worth more, I’ll knock Villa’s grade to a B+, but it’s hard to argue with the overall profit made on the deal.
Michael Olise— Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich— €53 M
On one hand, Bayern’s recruitment strategy in the final third remains confusing with this move for the Engllish-born, French international Olise. At least one of Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané will likely move on this summer and Thomas Müller isn’t getting any younger, but the Bavarians seem to have a knack for piling up talented attacking players with similar skill sets. Olise seems to have a number of skills that overlap with the aforementioned forwards (and Jamal Musiala) with that problem only further compounded by the presence of Harry Kane who, despite his fantastic debut season in the BL, is obviously an atypical number 9 because of his play style. When you add all that together, Bayern, strangely, don’t seem to be all that much closer to building an integrated attacking unit with this move despite having forked out €148M for Olise and Kane in the last 11 months.
On the other hand, Olise is a magical talent. Players with his gifts in possession are few and far between, and it shouldn’t be taken lightly how much he influenced games later in the season for a Palace team that took off under Oliver Glasner. His game and temperament are built for playing at a big club, and there’s little reason (beyond the conflict in styles with the other forwards) to think that he won’t be a success in the Bundesliga. If anything, the question should be what type of players Vincent Kompany (or whichever manager follows him when Bayern inevitably switch coaches again) and the recruitment team at Bayern Munich can put around the talented 22-year-old and Musiala. Up front, Kane could be a solid partner for Olise and Musiala in the near future, but that would require Bayern to add a very specific style of player who has the ability to chase in behind the defense in their fourth attacking position (assuming they stay with some variation of a 4–2–3–1). Xavi Simons, who’s been linked heavily with the club, is a perfect example of a player who — while very good — doesn’t add a lot of variety compared to Olise and Musiala. In any case, all of that is very forward thinking and it isn’t necessarily fair to include in the grading for this deal. Olise’s old club, perhaps, could have made a bigger profit by holding for another year but did well to honor the player’s wish to move away while still profiting nearly €45M since he arrived from Reading — giving Palace a faultless A+ grade. Bayern, risks with team-building aside, have added a player with one-of-a-kind talent at a price that will look quite miniscule if he kicks on in Germany. I give Bayern an A for this move with hopes that they work to find an “in-behind” threat on the opposite wing to complement his game long term.
Quick Hits
Khéphren Thuram (Nice [B-] to Juventus [A], €20.6 M):
Thuram, as compared to a slightly more refined player like Luiz, still needs some polish to maximize his talent, but is an incredibly fun player to watch at his best. He has all the skills needed to be a box-to-box midfielder and seems to be well-rounded enough to succeed as a 6 or a 10 long-term if given the proper one-to-one training. That said, he’s best suited to continue playing as an 8 because of his solid tackling ability and willingness to carry the ball up field with little to no intervention from teammates. Nice have done well to keep him away from domestic giant PSG who were long linked to Thuram but could (and should) have recouped a bigger fee a season ago. For their reluctance to sell and inability to capitalize off of his talent in the year he stuck around, they get a lower grade, but he does still move on for 100% profit after arriving for free from Monaco at 18. Juventus, who now have a manager well-equipped to develop a midfield talent into something special, deserve high marks for striking while the price is low this summer. While this wouldn’t be the first time a high-end talent flops at Juventus in recent years, this current iteration of the Bianconeri feels better equipped to nurture a player with genuine world class potential like Thuram.
Max Kilman (Wolves [A+] to West Ham [B+], €47.5 M):
While Kilman is a talented, homegrown central defender, the price tag still seems pretty steep given the move is from one mid-table side to another. If City or Chelsea or United were involved, the price tag would naturally rise to this level, but I’m a bit surprised to see West Ham (even with their recent continental success) shelling out this type of cash. Perhaps it was Wolves — armed with the knowledge that West Ham cashed in on Declan Rice last summer — who drove an even harder bargain because the Hammers could be a theoretical rival for the back-end European places, but I still think they deserve a lot of credit for getting this type of fee on a player they purchased for just €4.75M in 2018. As always, price (no matter how high) becomes irrelevant if the player succeeds, and Kilman is both relatively young (27) and cut in the mold of a modern central defender thanks to his abilities in possession. As West Ham look to build up a side that contends for Europe annually, these are the types of gambles which have to be made but also will ultimately dictate their success or failure in doing so.
Moise Kean (Juventus [C+] to Fiorentina [B+], €13 M):
Juventus have, in a roundabout way, made profit from the sale(s) of the homegrown academy product after netting a small loss in his move to Everton and subsequent return to the Allianz Stadium. Yet, the legacy of Kean at Juventus for most will be that of a failure after his early explosion failed to materialize into a role as the team’s striker of the future. Much blame will be thrown the way of the player in this case, but the failure of multiple clubs to show the 24-year old adequate support suggests the move away will provide a very important breath of fresh air for Kean. To this point in his career, PSG seemed to be the only club whose recruitment staff, coaching team and playing personnel unilaterally bought into Kean, and he played his best football while on loan there. The early indications are that I Viola, who’ve lost Andrea Belotti from last season’s team, will do the same — meaning Kean has every chance to rebuild his form in Florence. Even if he doesn’t turn out to be a big-time goal-scorer, this can still end up a useful investment for Fiorentina as Kean has shown the willingness and the ability to turn out in a wide role as needed — meaning a further centre forward could be brought in without making him obsolete.
Ian Maatsen (Chelsea [B-] to Aston Villa [B+], €44.5 M):
Though I rate Maatsen highly, the price here seems ludicrous, but that’s likely because this is another of the FFP compliance transactions made between clubs this summer to balance their books. If we’re looking strictly at price, Chelsea have obviously made a killing here, but the context means they get a slightly lower grade as they made a big return on a late-stage academy player (arrived from PSV at age 16) but never really gave a quality player a chance to explore his potential while subsequently investing in other left backs who have probably been no better. For Villa, I like the addition from a talent perspective though I’m not totally sure why they felt the need to play ball with a potential top 4 rival financially. They’ll also need to clean out this position a little, but I don’t see them having issues shifting one or both of Lucas Digne and Àlex Moreno if they’re willing to sell cheap. As far as building for long-term success over short-term splashes on big names, this is a smart deal for Unai Emery and Monchi.
