How to be profitable on football betting in 2019
To start winning, we want you to stop losing first.
3 Things you should stop doing to win in football betting
1) Stop using Betting tips, tipster website & Social Media Tipster with bookmaker affiliate/Sales Agent links
if a guy offer advice on what to bet online for free, do you realize — what’s in it for them? The answer is simple because they will earn while you lose.
Below are the steps on how they do it?
They will provide you with tons of free bet, sign up offer or risk free bet. Once you click on the link that bring you to the bookmaker and sign up, they will start earning lifetime commission from the bookmaker while you lose.
The commission will range from 30–50% of all their referred customers’ loss. It depend on the number of customers they refer to the bookmaker. The more they refer, the higher the commission they will get.To ensure themselves and the bookmaker to win, they will offer you plenty of betting tips everyday. This is not to benefit you, but their Boss/bookmaker have the edge to beat you all the time. Bookmakers have a big edge and will win if you are betting too much or betting on the high margin betting type. Read more about bookmaker margin below
They have created a vast number of betting tips type such as both team to score, both team to score and win, bet of the day, A to Z league accumulator, correct score double, weekend win tips, daily treble, bankroll builder… All these types of betting tips everyday is to ensure they can brag about at least 1 of their tips type that perform and get more people to follow them. They created a lot of zombie account to like or share their social media post. Some even hired professional marketing agency to help them.
This is a big conflict of interest for a social media tipster/ tips website/ company that are supposed to help you to win but they can only make money while you lose.
You can learn more about what we said about affiliate from the link at the end of the article.Beside that, BBC wrote about this as well and you can read more here https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-36580678.
2) Stop betting on high margin bet type or bookmaker
Bookmaker use margin to manage risk. The “margin” is the amount by which a bookie’s odds for a set of mutually exclusive events exceeds probability = 1.Put yourself in Bookmaker’s shoe, while you are looking to win a lot of money from the bookmaker, they are also looking to make more money from you. They have their own formulas to win money from their customers as well. They use Expected losses which expected losses=margin / (1 + margin).The higher payout product come with the higher expected loss for you.
For example, the set of odds quoted on for the English Premier League match between Arsenal and Manchester united in normal time of 0.435, a probability of a draw of 0.308, and a probability of Arsenal winning of 0.294, then 0.435 + 0.308 + 0.294 = 1.037, margin =0.037, and expected losses = 3.6%.
Bet type such as accumulator, first goal scorers could have expected losses from 15–30%. Here’s an example: If the margin is, for example, 3%, then in a five-fold accumulator bet the compound interest is 15.9%. 1.06 ^ 5–1 = 1.03 x 1.03 x 1.03 x 1.03 x 1.03–1 = 1.159 to 1 = 15.9% The above calculation means that a five-fold bet containing individual bets each with an margin of 3% generates a profit margin of 15.9% for the bookmaker.
Bookie’s main target is to extract or win more from their customers. To do that, they want you to bet on products/bet type with high expected loss % to ensure that they get more and more money from you.
By looking at the table above, bookmaker advertise a lot on all this high margin product. Business will always advertise the most on their best performance products. As the result we advise you to stop betting on all this products with bookmaker which they have the highest edge against you.
Read more about how bookmaker make yours money here
3) Stop using old predictions method and old betting tools and old betting ideas
Doing more research or spending more time on football form, head 2 head stats will not make you profitable on football betting in 2019. The reason is simple all this have already calculated and reflected on the bookmaker handicap and odds. Bookmaker have more resources, info and stats than most of us.
Which football stats work in 2019?
Stats still work in football betting, but in this big data age, it just need to be more details.
“47-year‑old Brentford owner made millions at his company, Smartodds, using mathematical models to predict football results”
This is the prove that stats that work in 2019.
“Claus Steinlein — a former professional footballer — lets me see the sort of text message their analytics experts send to the coaches at half-time and full-time. Amid the acronyms, two stats stand out: each team’s chances and half-chances, and the expected score based on the quality of those chances. The thinking is simple: football is a low-scoring game and so missed chances, luck, or bad refereeing decisions mean a stronger team win less often than in many sports, so such data should give coaches a more accurate assessment of how the scoreline reflects the match.”
It just shows you how detailed the football stats are being processed and used in football.
Read more here https://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtjylland-analytical-route-champions-league-brentford-matthew-benham
We will explain more about stats below.
“3 Things you should start doing to win in football betting”
1) Start to follow the smart bets
Europe football Smart punters bet big and win by having edges. They need bookies to accept their consistently big and winning bets. As the result, they come to Asia. Asian Bookies tend to look for info to win money from the 1 billion a day Soccer turnover market .(Asia accounts for 80 percent of the estimated $500 billion in illegal betting volumes globally, according to Transparency International and the Asian Racing Federation) Asian football Traders get alert from their systems when smart punters place their bets.
Company like Smartodds has resources, stats (like above) which can match bookmaker on setting up or finding the TRUE odds of a football match.
“You didn’t need to study the stats , you just need to follow their bets “
Ibigbets.com is a tool designed to track football smart bets & public betting percentages.
Ways to use the tools and to follow the smart bet
1. Price drops after they bet on it but you can wait
In-running odds will move and goals will be scored. Take advantage on the football tips and bet when you are in the best position.
2. They are smart punters and not match-fixer so their wining percentage usually is around 50–60%
If you are confident on your own research about some soccer matches you can bet the opposite while the odds go up after smart punters bet on it.
3. They perform well in some football leagues in a period of time
Every betting system, strategy or investment will have their ups and downs. Take advantage while it is on the up and stay away while it is dropping.
4. Take advantage of the info you received from smart punter
Since smart or sharp punter place their bet with Asia bookies and a few sharp bookmakers, their odds will drop once they have accepted the smart punter bet. You can use the info to place your bet on soft bookmaker which are slow to adjust to their odds.
Read more about tools you can use to follow smart bets here
2. Start Bet against the public
Contrarian investing has a reputation for being a successful logic in a lot areas of investment. The opposite side of this is that betting with the public has a poor track record. Human nature being what it is, we are born to follow the herd. Contrarian investing is hard and this is why it is lucrative. People which can find niche in the market get their reward.
This is where you find your value to bet on. Asia is where you find a lot of irrational punters.
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”
A simple way to this is to follow football betting volume from bookmaker.
You can get betting volume from betting exchange such as betfair, matchbet or betdaq. Below is the tool that can follow actual football betting volume from Betfair and algorithm predicted Football betting volume for Asian bookmakers free football betting volume .
3. Start to bet like a Real Professional Trader
3 Important parts you need to work for you to become professional punters :-Plan, Emotion control & Money management.
- PLAN: Choose betting strategy that suits you
Everybody have different objective, time and budget. Some people are aggressive and they like to spend a lot time in betting but some people have the patience to wait for the right opportunity to bet. Some betting strategy and system require to have more fund. For example, if you choose to hedge bet/Risk free bet/Sure betting, you need the fund to be in multiple bookmakers account. Beside that, you need to understand the withdrawal difficulty, timing, procedure, fee of each bookmakers.
- EMOTION CONTROL: Handle up & down
Any betting strategy will have bad and good moment. You need to control your emotion for not chasing loss or win and stick to the system.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffet
“If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.” Ed Seykota
- MONEY MANAGEMENT: All in or grow slowly
Compare odds with your own probability of success and failure to calculate your betting stake. This method is call Kelly Criterion. . If You are a beginner on just trying to get your probability of success and failure right, you should bet smaller. Once your are more confident, then you should follow the advise below. To win big, sometimes you have to risk more. Below are real life situation where Professional take big bets with big return
- In 1998 World Cup, Victor Chandler’s management bet everything it had won so far from the tournament on France to beat Brazil in the final. The host’s 3–0 victory over Brazil netted a huge prize
- George Soros Break the Bank of England: Soros chief portfolio manager advise him to build his postion slowly on british pound Soros responded, if the Schlesinger quotes were accurate, why just build steadily? “Go for the jugular,” Soros advised him.The chief portfolio manager had done the analysis, understood the politics, and seen the trigger for the trade; but Soros was the one who sensed that this was the moment to go nuclear. When you knew you were right, there was no such thing as betting too much. You piled on as hard as possible.
How about match betting, bonus …?
There are still other ways which you can make money from football betting in 2019 such as exploit bookmaker bonus, sure Bet/ hedge Bet/ matched bet trading. These are low risk betting strategy that work but low risk come with low reward. Beside that, you need to deal with bookmaker promotion terms, professional trading rules ( yes, there are rule that prevent you to trade), withdrawal and deposit difficulty.
Below are just a few disputes example
“In disbelief that after signing up and being in full compliance the free bet would not be granted, the player launched a complaint with the Alderney Gambling Control Commission. The AGCC — which licenses Sportingbet — ruled in favour of Sportingbet, even acknowledging that the sportsbook was not required to provide information on how it determined the player was not eligible. The prompt rubberstamping of the failure to honour the promotion leads SBR to question whether the AGCC reviewed such evidence itself.”
“Are Bookmakers unfairly closing customer accounts?”
“We are … a mass-market leisure and entertainment business, And that word, ‘business,’ brings me to my first major point. We run a business, not a public service. And we run it to be a commercial success. I’m not embarrassed about that.”
Richard Flint, CEO of U.K. online bookmaker Sky Betting & Gaming
(Risk Management & Risk Elimination is not the same!! Shame on you!)
Try to do as much research yourself before you decide to do the so call “RISK FREE”investment. I find that a lot website that promote risk free trading tools earn affiliate commission as well.And they didn’t disclose that they are promoting the tools with benefit in their article so beware!!
How to check the blog that promote is the affiliate/agent for the service they refer?
Once you click on the service/product link, behind the link will have something like this ?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=salesmanid. It will have the salesman id on the link. Please don’t believe all the thing they say, they are getting pay if you sign up. * Genuine affiliate website do state that they receive benefit while referring service they really try before.
Below are the resources which you can read to improve your football betting
Social Media tipster problem
Kelly Criterion & Margin https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/How-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting/2BT2LK6K2QWQ7QJ8
Originally published at blog.ibigbets.com on March 15, 2019.