It’s Probably Already Happened.
It’s probably already happened; NSA and JSOC and DARPA are doing literally everything under the sun to beat the corresponding agencies in China and Russia in the race to AI, quantum technologies, and cyberdefense, but I can tell you that it’s very likely that China’s going to win in mathematics and physics and AI, where they have the ironclad lead and know it, and will utterly dominate the ongoing story from then on.
It’s very close, and I don’t mean to denigrate Google or Amazon or Microsoft or IBM or Facebook or even Apple at all; overall perhaps the finest companies on the face of the earth, with a very significant lead in AI to date, but China’s coming up extremely fast, with amazing companies of their own like Baidu and Alibaba and Tencent and Didi. And they have what american companies don’t have and won’t have either: 3x the data, 3x the population, and a communist system that won’t allow american companies to have access to their data, even though they can have our data with a relatively free and open system. I think China’s going to win in the greatest race for all the marbles in all of history, the public sector is WAY too slow and pedantic, and they are going to decide, when AGI finally wins and the human race is inferior even in it’s finest moments, what happens as AI leaps ahead for good.
