Rain Matter — Unseasonal rains through 5 lenses
Welcome to May 2023! The weather in India has been quite unpredictable lately. One day, we endure scorching heat, while the next day brings hailstorms. As I write this week’s newsletter, it is raining and snowing at higher altitudes at this time of the year.
In isolation, we may not realize how this untimely rain is impacting our lives. For some, the rain is providing a much-needed respite from the consistent heat wave scenario of the past few years. However, for others, it can be frustrating especially when travel plans are disrupted due to unexpected weather conditions because you thought it was going to be summer.
Seasons are overlapping. Regardless of how we feel, it is clear that this is not a normal situation.
Now, before I jump into the whole ‘Climate Change Protest Scenario,’ which can be something I have a tendency to lean on as a former climate activist, let’s first understand that there is a natural weather system that is causing this unseasonal rain followed by other important reasons, its impact and what can we do about it.
So I asked ChatGPT to explain some of these terms like I was 5.
First Lens: Weather System
So El Niño is expected to impact the upcoming monsoon season in India, which usually contributes 75% of the annual rainfall and irrigates over half of the country’s agricultural land. During an El Niño year, there is a 60% chance of drought, a 30% chance of below-normal rain, and a 10% chance of normal rain. Scientists have warned that the transition from La Niña to El Niño could lead to a 15% deficit in the monsoon. Climate change is expected to aggravate the situation, increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events.
Topping that are the Western Disturbances. Western disturbances originate from the Mediterranean region and Central Asia, and they move eastwards towards South Asia, affecting countries such as India, Pakistan, and Nepal. A series of cyclonic storms bring winter rains to India, moderate maximum temperatures during winter, and replenish Himalayan glaciers.
But Western Disturbances are weakening due to climate change. The subtropical westerly jet stream, which transports Western Disturbances, is shifting and can affect the monsoon and cause floods. Global warming can reduce the temperature gradient necessary for the formation of Western Disturbances, which could negatively impact glaciers.
Scientists warn that the recent heatwave in Asia is an early warning sign of the impact of climate change. Melting glaciers in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region will lead to water scarcity and food insecurity.
So there’s the natural weather system. Now let’s understand how it’s changing due to man-made interferences.
Second Lens: Pollution
A study by researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune has found a link between the decrease in Indian monsoon and pollution, as well as the increase in Pacific cyclones.
The study suggests that the higher frequency of tropical cyclones over the west Pacific weakens the Indian monsoon, and human-induced activities can significantly alter the pattern of monsoon flow.
Human-induced pollution, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, can weaken the Indian monsoon by depleting moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Indian landmass. Instead, the moisture is transported to the west-north Pacific, increasing the frequency of tropical cyclones in that region.
The study also found that aerosol emissions can decrease temperatures and ultimately reduce rainfall, counteracting the positive influence of greenhouse gas emissions on rainfall. The study highlights the complex interplay of human activities on the environment and the connection between the northwest Pacific cyclonic activity with the Indian monsoon.
Third Lens: Impact on Your Plate
This is happening right now!
Apart from the loss of life and property and day-to-day utilities, unseasonal rainfall has damaged crops of wheat, mustard, chana, and mangoes, leading to an increase in prices of commodities in short supply.
The damage came after these areas experienced record-high temperatures before the rains began. Farmers are struggling to salvage the harvest, which is further complicated by storms and high winds.
Wheat farmers are facing the biggest loss, with almost the entire crop standing in the fields ready to be harvested. India is likely to fall short of its target of 112 million tonnes of wheat production due to excessive rainfall. The government has ruled out resuming wheat exports which were banned last year.
India is also expected to ban sugar exports due to a decline in production of the sweetener. Apple growers in Himachal Pradesh are worried about their crops after unseasonal rain as snowfall killed Italian honeybees imported for apple pollination.
Jeera prices have risen due to concerns over unseasonal rains and hailstorms that could lead to lower yields and quality of the crop in Rajasthan, the major producing state.
There are many more such examples that are taking place right now.
Fourth Lens: Action through Climate Adaptation
To protect food on our plates as well as vulnerable communities in India’s agricultural sector, it is urgent to develop a compensation and agriculture adaptation plan for farmers. Some climate adaptation actions for coping with unseasonal rains include crop diversification, early warning systems, improved drainage systems, soil conservation practices, improved irrigation, water harvesting, crop insurance, and alternative livelihoods.
These are just a few examples of climate adaptation actions that can help farmers cope with unseasonal rains. The specific adaptation measures vary depending on the local context and the specific challenges faced by farmers.
In a telephone interview with Nitin Nath Singh, who manages North India Projects for Say Trees, he discussed their focus on crop diversification in their tree plantation efforts. By enabling farmers to grow multiple crops with different harvest times, they aim to mitigate the impact of unseasonal rains on yield. They also encourage a smooth transition back to traditional multi-cropping practices while continuing to meet market demands through existing practices.
Another example is Kheyti, an NGO based in Hyderabad that is helping farmers set up greenhouses with technological support. The setup uses 90% less water, grows food faster, and keeps the heat out.
WOTR has created an app that offers farmers personalized weather-based forecasts and crop management information to increase yield and reduce costs.
Anisha, a food security and rural development NGO, is promoting traditional farming methods, such as using natural pesticides, restoring degraded soil, and cultivating climate-resilient crops. They are also encouraging drought-resistant crops, intercropping vegetables, and supporting farmers through self-help groups. More Millets are in the making!
Last Lens: You. What can you do?
Well, the reason I have broken it down and put this particular weather event together through several lenses is that, again, in isolation, we do not realize what’s happening, and the probability of a partial view making sense is very low.
What I mean is that you do have the power to do something about these things in your capacity. I will be using the federalism structure of responsibility and action capability to illustrate and you can find out where you stand and what is possible at your end.
As William D. Nordhaus stated, “Externalities should be handled at the most effective place on the federal ladder.” In his book, “The Spirit of Green,” he provides examples to illustrate this point. With your permission, I would like to offer my interpretation of his argument.
Global
“Global” refers to those that have a worldwide impact, such as climate change or the establishment of international protocols. While COP (Conference of Parties) continues to turn heads and demand action, one of the most urgent concerns at the global level, according to me, is the lack of impact assessment of ESG (the new CSR). I will elaborate on this another time. But global leaders, if you are reading this, please get this assessment in order. Money funneled into projects without optimal plans or targets is money wasted.
National
“National” is responsible for controlling levels of emissions and pollution. However, given the urgency of the current situation, global calls for urgent adaptation actions like climate-resilient housing and agriculture, which come under national-level responsibilities. In India, we can understand it through the words: Ghar and Khaana (housing and food).
Regional
The “Regional” level is responsible for keeping natural resources free of externalities. This could mean controlling emissions coming from landfills and leachate in rivers or balancing developmental activities through social and ecological motivations. One can find examples of this in the last five years of NGT (National Green Tribunal) cases to know where regions stand and whether they are winning or losing.
Town
At the “Town” level, things that are in your control, like noise, transportation, heating, air conditioning, trash tourism, and trash in general. A common man has the power to press for change at the town level by petitioning, crowdfunding, and demanding adaptation.
Household
Interestingly, Nordhaus uses mice/rodents to represent the “Household” level externalities. You can do many things within your household. Just find people who have adopted a sustainable lifestyle, and you will be surprised by how some very simple changes can make your impact count in the larger scheme of things.
A small example in this scenario of agricultural loss: you can make a difference by buying produce that does not look perfect or comes in a smaller size or opting for climate-resilient foods like millets. Monocropping is a market reality because we don’t demand better.
Friends and strangers, it’s time to start climate adaptation. Do not be left behind. The future is awesome, rain check for today.
This story was first published in my Newsletter.
