Panic in the Paradise
A year after the false missile alert in Hawaii, we asked the state residents what they think about it now
In January 2017 a missile alert in Hawaii caused a serious panic and threatened the locals. Despite being false, it forced them to regard the nuclear threat as almost real. Our correspondent visited the 50th and most recent state a year after the incident to find out what we all can learn from the experience of the Paradise Islands.
On February the 2nd, the United States’ ultimatum under the INF Treaty expires. In December 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that if Russia did not return to the compliance with the agreement, the United States would withdraw from it. Apparently, neither Moscow nor Washington will have time to settle down their dispute before this date, and the treaty will be suspended. Meanwhile, many still believe that today is not the best time to cancel the key agreements in the field of nuclear disarmament due to the increasing risks around the Globe.
A bolt out of the blue
Early morning of January 13, 2017, the Hawaiian dream was disturbed by an alert. Thousands of the islands’ residents simultaneously received the following message on their phones, “Ballistic missile threat inbound to Hawaii. Seek immediate shelter. This is not a drill.”
Local journalist Jon Letman admitted in a conversation with our correspondent that he took the threat seriously, but thought first of North Korea, not Russia. Back then the world contemplated the “war of words” between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. Pyongyang conducted successful intercontinental ballistic missiles tests, the American president, for his part, threatened to bring down “fire and fury” on North Koreans. Hawaii is the closest American state to North Korea, located almost in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
Nevertheless, no one here thought what to do if “fire and fury” would fall upon the United States instead.
John read the message again and again, then rushed to the windows, shutting them. Then he filled the bath with water, just in case there will be shortages of water supply. After that, he ran out of ideas on how to prepare for a nuclear strike.
“The day before there was a stunning beauty of a sunset, blood red. The next morning we were woken up by the alarm”, said documentary filmmaker Cynthia Lazaroff. “At first, you think: is this true? Then you start looking for your loved ones, trying to reach them out. And when the question comes, how much time I have, you understand that you don’t have time to do anything at all. In the end, I just called my daughter and said that I loved her”.
There are no active bomb shelters on the Islands. People climbed into bathtubs, hid in restaurant refrigerators, jumped into their cars and took off to somewhere, ran around.
All this had lasted for 38 minutes, until their cell phones received another message, “There is no missile threat or danger to the State of Hawaii. Repeat. False alarm”. It turned out the State Emergency Officer pressed the wrong button.
“A mixture of ignorance, panic, and fatalism”, said historian and assistant professor at Stevens University of Technology Alex Wellerstein, “The Americans do not know anything about Civil Defense and even worse — they deny it”.
We must wake up
Аre things much better in Russia? Barely so. Do you know where is the nearest bomb shelter? Where will you run if the same message comes up on your phone?
“Today, the danger of some sort of a nuclear catastrophe is ever greater than it was during the Cold War”, wrote former US Secretary of Defense William Perry in 2016 in an article for Huffington Post, “And most people are blissfully unaware of this danger… Because we do not understand the dangers, we make no attempt, no serious attempt, to repair the hostility between the United States and Russia. And so we are allowing ourselves to sleepwalk into another catastrophe. We must wake up.”
However, since he wrote this, the situation has hardly changed for the better. The United States announced the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, a landmark agreement signed in 1987 by Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan. According to it, the United States and Russia are not allowed to possess the missiles with the range from 500 to 5,500 kilometers. Over the years, each side has accumulated many claims: Washington claims that the Russian 9M729 missile violates the terms of the treaty, Moscow points out that the US missile defense systems in Europe do the same.
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, “many countries have concerns that the plans of the United States administration include the dismantling of the New START Treaty.” This treaty limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads on both sides to 1,550 units and expires in 2021. If our countries do not extend it, the US and Russian nuclear weapons will be unregulated for the first time since 1971. This lack of certainty in relations between the two largest nuclear powers dramatically increases the likelihood of a fatal error.
In addition, modern technologies pose new challenges to international security. Previously, the world’s ‘chessboard’ was mainly in hands of just two major players — the Soviet Union and the USA.
In the 21st century, North Korea and Iran joined the atomic race, and China demonstrated resurgent military ambitions.
Authoritarian rulers around the world view nuclear warheads as a vaccine against foreign invasion and forced regime change. And they keep arming up.
“Nuclear weapons are very desirable for countries like North Korea,” said Danny Roy, a senior fellow at East-West Center in Honolulu, “They have a weak military, so even a small number of nuclear warheads will force the US to take them seriously and support the Kim regime inside the country.”
Hack the Bomb
“The news today is broadcast twenty-four hours a day, including social networks, and receive an instant response from the audience. All this narrows down the time frame for a decision, and generates an emotional pressure on leaders,” said Jaclyn Kerr, an affiliate at Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University.
Those who have access to the Red Button themselves are becoming increasingly unpredictable. Journalist Bob Woodward quotes in his book, “Fear. Trump in the White House”, an example when Donald Trump’s careless tweet was about to put the world on the brink of a nuclear disaster. The president allegedly had drafted a message in his phone: “we’re going to pull our dependents from South Korea — family members of the 28,000 people there” — and prepared to send it, but was warned that Pyongyang may take it as an evacuation sign and evidence of a preparing missile attack on North Korea.
“I don’t think Russia or China, after seeing Trump’s tweet, will immediately retaliate,” said Alex Wellerstein.“But the DPRK is more complicated. We know little about how decisions are made in this country. What worries me most is the increasing speed of events. I would cut all world leaders from direct access to their Twitter accounts.”
“Nuclear warheads have barely changed since the Cold War — the missiles carrying them have,” adds Carl Robichaud, Program Officer for International Peace and Security at Carnegie Corporation of New York. “They became more accurate clearing the way to the lower-yield nuclear arms. This type of weapon does not cause as much destruction as strategic nuclear weapons, and so, it is much more tempting to use”.
Digitalization poses yet another challenge to the world: warning, command and control systems are becoming more vulnerable to hacking.
“What happened last year in Hawaii may be carried out on purpose,” said Andrew Futter, Associate Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester. “Nowadays, computers are responsible for nuclear security, so, in theory, they can be hacked. Luckily, false alarm occurred when the relations between the United States and North Korea were far from the peak of the crisis”.
Another danger is the so-called “deep fakes”. Technology today allows to create a video with fake statements by politicians, and the faces of digital clones are almost indistinguishable from the real personalities. What will happen if some intruders launch a “deep fake” in the network, in which, for example, Kim Jong-Un announces a nuclear attack on the United States? Experts shrug: the technology is so new that the consequences we cannot predict.
Remember Pearl Harbor
“I have been studying North Korea my whole life, so when the false alarm came last year I just said, no, they wouldn’t do that”, said Susan Kreifels, Media Program Manager at East-West Center.
Also, few people believed in the possibility of the Japanese aviation attack on Pearl Harbor. Nowadays, there is a memorial museum on the shores of Oahu island, from where the participation of American troops in World War II began. Its materials provide evidence of how blind were the American generals and state officials in their assessment of Japan ’s plans and capabilities.
“Many Americans, including some government and military leaders, viewed Japan and its people as inferiors not a serious threat to the United States,” says the table at the Pearl Harbor Museum. “The Japanese are not going to risk a fight with a first-class nation”, US Congressman Charles I. Faddis declared in 1941. “They are unprepared to do so, and no one knows that better than they do. Their navy is not strong enough, and their homeland is too vulnerable”.
In the same year, the Japanese air force carried out a sudden attack on the Hawaiian harbor, where the American Pacific Fleet was based at that time. The surprise strike was successful. Almost all the ships were sunk, and more than 2,400 American soldiers died as a result. This forced the US to enter World War II. The slogan of the unfolding anti-Japanese campaign was “Remember Pearl Harbor”. With this call to revenge for the humiliating defeat, many Americans went to the frontlines, it flaunted on campaign posters and badges.
It’s been almost 80 years since then. Pearl Harbor is still remembered in the United States. But many seem to forget its lessons.
This story was originally published on the 1st of February, 2019, in Moscow-based newspaper Moskovskiy Komsomolets. The English translation was made by the author for the convenience of international readers.