The Death of the Software Engineer
It is the year 2020. You are a Software Engineer at a lovely new startup, Zathin. One day, the CEO of Zathin called you into his office for a meeting. He informed you the bad news…you are laid off.
You asked why.
The CEO pointed out that Software Engineers are no longer needed at his company. “Software Engineering is obsolete!” the CEO said while slamming his fist onto his desk. “We now have Deep Neural Networks who will understand all the user requirements, write out code, and test it to be bug-free.” The CEO preempitvely consoled you, pointing out that he is a strong advocate of a Basic Income and will surely pour most of his wealth into ensuring that you will only day receive enough money from the government to not starve out on the street.
The CEO pointed to an email sent by a book author named George Zarkadakis. In 2016, George sent an email to Dice.com suggesting that coding jobs will “mutate into deep neural network training jobs as machine learning takes hold”. At the time, nobody cared what emails George sends, because anybody can make fantastic predictions about the future without ever thinking through the consequences.
But George’s prediction was right. Today, machine learning has taken hold. Today, you are obsolete.
Previously, Zathin hired 10 Software Engineers, before laying them all off. Each Software Engineer received $100,000 in salary+benefits. And that’s all gone now. The company has therefore saved $1,000,000 through this process of automation, and it did so with a smile and a wink.
You were about to clear out your desks and leave the Zathin HQ, when the CEO of Zathin called you back into his office for another meeting. He informed you the good news…you were hired!
You asked why.
The CEO gleefully talked about how his company is now hiring Deep Neural Network Trainers (DNNTs) to replace all their obsolete Software Engineers. “As a DNNT, you will help our Deep Neural Networks reach impressive results quickly. And since we are always building new Deep Neural Networks, we will always need Trainers for them.” The CEO pointed out how your previous experience as a Software Engineer at Zathin makes you a perfect fit for a new job as a DNNT.
This was predictable. Computers have always been writing code ever since the first compilers were invented. Even as late as the early 21st century, programmers all around the world were relying on Ruby on Rails, Yeoman, Visual Basic and other code generators to handle the boilerplate necessary for modern-day applications, to say nothing about the ORMs that were used to handle SQL queries. But code generation never threatened “human supremacy”. You still need a human in charge of the computer, to tell the computer what code it should write. The computer need only proper instruction, or in this case, proper Training, before it will craft functioning code.
You asked the CEO how much was he offering for the new position.
The CEO offered you $100,000.
It’s time to play hardball. “That was how much I was making at my last job. If you are to hire me as a DNNT, you have to pay me more. Much more.”
Zathin needs 7 Deep Neural Network Trainers, to replace their obsolete 10 Software Engineers. Since they had $1,000,000 left over from their recent layoffs, they decided to raise their offer to $120,000 for each DNNT. The company therefore spends $840,000 in total to hire new DNNTs. The remainder ($160,000) will be retained as cost-savings.
You accepted the $120,000 offer. It is a shame for the poor 10 Software Engineers who had saw their jobs got destroyed before their very eyes, but look at the 7 new high-paying jobs that now exist! That surely justify the 3 people that were unlucky to secure these high-paying jobs and are now unemployed. Or possibly, unemployable.
You are also glad about your new technology that threatened to put you out on the streets, but managed to bail you out at the end. You are happy that technology will stagnate at the Deep Neural Network stage, and that nobody will bother to invent anything better in an attempt to chase even further cost-savings. And even if they do, they still need people to run and manage future AI technologies. You might get lucky and secure the even-higher-paying jobs that get spawned through the disruption, instead of being left behind by an uncaring force called Innovation.
…Right?
…
It is the year 2030. You are a Deep Neural Network Trainer at an established multi-billion corporation, Zathin. One day, the CEO of Zathin called you into his office for a meeting. He informed you the bad news…
