On-сhain Weekly Report №51 (Week 51 2021)

Ivan Maltsev
3 min readDec 22, 2021

There are signs of a bear market, in fact the long term structure remains bullish. Completion of a downward price grind may end with a down squeeze, then a recovery bounce. Macro structure looks strong for Q1 2022.

According to Binance (BTC/USDT pair), Bitcoin opened the week at $50,348 and felt to a low of $46,605 on Sunday. During the previous week Bitcoin price has lost around 7.24%. Possibly a re-accumulation of coins that were divested in May caused our last bearish phase.

This week I will put more attention in my report on Bitcoin Hodlers and Whaves Heatmaps, Bitcoin Inflows and Outflows, Miners reserves, NVT Signal, Demand on Futures exchanges and other metrix.

Previous crashes (A and B) were lead by HODLer selling. Now we have a good support with steady buying.

Bitcoin HODLer: Buy/Sell Heatmap

According to the Bitcoin Whale: Buy/Sell Heatmap whales are buying now.

Bitcoin Whale: Buy/Sell Heatmap

Bitcoin outflows are increasing that can be a sign of buying and sending to a cold storage.

BTC: All Exchanges Outflow

The total amount of BTC transferred to Spot exchanges’ wallets is low.

BTC: Spot Exchanges Inflow

The amount of BTC held in all miners’ wallets is growing it means that miners are accumulation Bitcoin.

BTC: All Miners Reserve

The total amount of BTC held by All Funds has fallen around 5% during the previous week.

All Symbol: All Funds Holdings

NVT Signal is now in a rare oversold zone. It is one of the earliest on-chain signals.

Bitcoin: NVT Signal

Demand on leading futures exchanges is growing despite the price downwards. The structure looks similar to July of this year which resolved in a short squeeze.

Bitcoin: PDL Oscilator

Summary:

There are signs of a bear market, in fact the long term structure remains bullish. Completion of a downward price grind, this may end with a down squeeze, then a recovery bounce. Macro structure looks strong for Q1 2022.

Sources: https://insights.glassnode.com/, https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/, https://cryptoquant.com/, https://www.tradingview.com/,

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