On-сhain Weekly Report №63 (Week 14 2022)

Ivan Maltsev
4 min readApr 6, 2022


The Bitcoin was traded between a low of $44,427 and a high of $48,083, consolidating after the recent price rally. This week the total Bitcoin supply reached the 19-millionth coin mined, leaving less than 9.52% of the final 21M supply left to be mined over the next ~118 years. Despite the chaotic macro and geopolitical conditions, it has been a particularly impressive week for BTC accumulation trends: the total supply of wrapped Bitcoin on Ethereum (WBTC) has grown by 12.5k BTC and the Luna Foundation Guard has bought over 21k BTC in the last ten days.

This week we will put more attention on Accumulation Trend, Bitcoin Balance On Exchanges, Total Balance In Accumulation Addresses, Luna Foundation Guard Balance, Bitcoin, and Stable Coins Reserves, Fear & Greed Index, and other metrics.

Executive summary:

We are evidencing a strong signal of accumulation and conviction in Bitcoin.

  1. BTC outflows have reached a rate of 96.2k BTC/month. The largest outflows are coming out of the most popular exchanges in the industry: Coinbase, Binance, Gemini, Kraken, Bittrex, and Bitstamp. Binance has seen over 20.8k BTC in outflows over the last 2-weeks.
  2. A very large volume of BTC is being accumulated by Whale entities (> 1k BTC) over the last two weeks. One of the most public entities has been the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), which has purchased 21,163 BTC over a ten-day period.
  3. The total supply of wrapped Bitcoin on Ethereum (WBTC) has grown by 12.5k BTC showing a continuous demand for BTC as collateral in Defi products.

The Whales and/or a large proportion of market entities are adding significantly to their balances. This week returned a consistent stream of values upwards of 0.65, which indicates a general trend of accumulation is underway.

We can see that exchange balances have also experienced a historically significant period of BTC outflows, reaching an outflow rate of 96.2k BTC/month.

Over 96k BTC flowed out of the exchanges that represents a notable break downwards from consolidation that was happening since September 2021.

The largest exchanges — Coinbase, Binance, Gemini, Kraken, Bittrex and Bitstamp have seen significant net outflows during the last month.

A growth rate of 1,800 BTC/day which is 2x the daily issuance to miners.The total balance held in Accumulation Addresses has risen by 217k BTC over the last four months.

Bitcoin shrimps are the entities with balances less than 1BTC. This cohort has been aggressively accumulating since the local price lows set on 22-Jan. Bitcoin Shrimp currently hold 14.256% of the coin supply in aggregate.

Luna Foundation Guard Balance had an initial purchase of 9,564 BTC in late-Jan, valued at $358.6M at the time, the LFG balance has now grown by 21,163 BTC over a nine-day period. The total value of the LFG balance is now over $1.40 Billion.

Over 1.449% of the Bitcoin supply (275,236 BTC) is now held by the custodian BitGo, and issued as a tokenized version WBTC on the Ethereum blockchain to use BTC as collateral in DeFi products.

Miners’ Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD). Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling.

Bitcoin: Miners’ Position Index

Ratio of the sum of UTXO value being in profit among total sum of UTXO value.
We have seen an increasing trend in value that means more investors are beginning to be in profit resulting increase in sell pressure.

Bitcoin: Supply in Profit (%)

Observing Fear and Greed Index, we try to save ourselfs from our own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions: Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity. When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Sources: https://insights.glassnode.com/, https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCounthttps://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/, https://cryptoquant.com/, https://www.tradingview.com/



Ivan Maltsev

Partner at 3xcapital.fund. Managing portfolios in crypto since 2017.

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