2020 Nitto ATP Finals — Preview and Predictions
The 51st edition of the ATP Finals will kick off at the O2 Arena today (15th of November) to conclude a challenging year for the Tennis community. This will be the last tournament hosted at O2 Arena, London as the hosting rights will be handed over to Turin, Italy from 2021 onwards. This year’s tournament will be held without spectators in attendance in accordance with the guidelines of COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. Due to the cancellation of more than 35 tournaments throughout the year, qualification of players also took place based on the adjusted ATP Rankings as of 9th November 2020.
This article will discuss the pre-tournament favourites and attempts to predict the results based on a draw analysis.
Qualified Players
Novak Djokovic (World №1)
On Paper, Novak is the overwhelming favourite to take the title. The current World №1 is seeking his sixth title to equal Roger Federer’s record of most singles titles at the event. In addition, Novak had a phenomenal year which includes 4 titles (Australian Open, Dubai Open, Cincinnati Masters and Italian Open) and 39–3 record.
However, Novak has been struggling a bit recently, in particular looking vulnerable in the beginning of each match. If you review his matches since French Open quarterfinals against Pablo Carreno Busta, he has offered many opportunities to the opponents to take the first set. This could be due to a minor injury concerns or due to lack of confidence, but this offers a huge opportunity to his opponents to pile pressure on him early. That said, this is Novak we are talking about, defeating him is not an easy task even when he is not in top form. Therefore, It would be a no brainer to categorise him as one of the favourites to win.
Rafael Nadal (2)
Despite qualifying for the ATP finals for the record 16th consecutive year since 2005, Nadal has never been able to win this event, which is regarded by many as the missing piece of his impressive resume. To be honest, Nadal’s 56% win ratio at ATP Finals is extremely poor considering his 83.2% career win percentage.
That said, this year might present Rafa with his best opportunity to win the title. He is fresh, injury free, and he will avoid most of the key contenders early based on the draw. While he is not a clear favourite like Novak or Zverev, I would expect a strong showing by the Spaniard this time around.
Dominic Thiem (3)
Last year’s runner up Thiem had a phenomenal year so far, winning his first Grand Slam title (US Open) and reaching the final of Australian Open. However, he hasn’t done much since his US Open victory and pulled out of Paris Masters due to severe blistering on his foot. While I expect him to be fully fit to take part, I’m not sure if Thiem can go all the way this time around due to lack of preparation.
Daniil Medvedev (4)
Despite reaching the US Open semifinals, Medvedev experienced an underwhelming 2020, compared to his blockbuster performance in 2019. However, he ended his lacklustre run at the Paris Masters by winning his third masters title with an impressive win over Zverev.
Peaking at the right time is important when it comes to success in a tournament like this. Therefore, I believe Medvedev will be one of the favourites this year.
Alexander Zverev (5)
Sascha has done exceptionally well since the resumption of the ATP tour after the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. He lost the US Open title by the narrowest of margins in the final-set tiebreaker to Dominic Thiem after leading by two sets and serving for the championship in the fifth set. In addition, he won back to back indoor ATP 250 events in Cologne and reached finals in Paris Masters. His performance against Rafael Nadal in the semifinal of Paris Masters was exceptional.
That said, Sasha has been going through a tough time personally with domestic abuse claims made by his ex-girlfriend. However, some players play their best tennis when they are up against it and Sasha’s recent form suggests that he is one of those. Therefore, I believe Zverev is one of the hot favourites to retain the title he won in 2018.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (6)
Defending champion Tsitsipas is having a pretty subdued year so far. Even though he reached the French Open semifinals, the leg injury he sustained during the tournament hampered his preparation so far. Given his poor form leading up to the tournament, I’m not expecting much from the Greek player.
Andrey Rublev (7)
Russian youngster has been impressive this season winning five titles, including two indoor ATP Tour 500 tournaments in St. Petersburg and Vienna. Given his form he will be the player to watch out in this year’s tournament. That said, he is playing the tournament for the first time and might struggle in the first couple of matches.
Diego Schwartzman (8)
Diego is featuring in the tournament for the first time after consistent performances throughout the year. He did exceptionally well in clay reaching the semifinals of French Open and the finals of Italian Open. Even though the resilient Argentinian is expected to put up a good fight, I would predict that he will struggle against the likes of Djokovic, Zverev and Medvedev.
Draw
This year the groups are named after the hosts of the inaugural and the current editions of the tournament.
Group Tokyo 1970 — Djokovic (1), Medvedev (4), Zverev (5), Schwartzman (8)
Group London 2020 — Nadal (2), Thiem (3), Tsitsipas (6), Rublev (7)
Even though the draw is ideal in terms of the rankings, with respect to current form and the conditions, Tokyo 1970 can be considered to be the stronger group as it consists of the three clear favourites for the title. That said, if Thiem and Tsitsipas are fully fit, we can expect a keen tussle within the London 2020 group as well.
Predictions
Group Tokyo 1970
Outcome of this group will largely depend on the three matches between Djokovic, Zverev and Medvedev (Medvedev vs. Zverev, Djokovic vs. Zverev and Djokovic vs. Medvedev). I would predict these will be shared equally amongst the three players.
Medvedev to defeat Zverev
Zverev to get the better of Djokovic
Djokovic to beat Medvedev
In addition, all three of them will win their matches against Schwartzman. Therefore, the standings will be determined based on the percentage of sets won. By that virtue Zverev will top the group and Medvedev will qualify above Djokovic.
Predicted semifinalists — Zverev (1) and Medvedev (2)
Group London 2020
Nadal is expected to top this group with 3 wins over Rublev, Theim and Tsitsipas. He is focused, injury free and playing well while both Thiem and Tsitsipas lack games under their belt.
Thiem will grab the second position over close wins over Tsitsipas and Rublev. Rublev will win his game against Tsitsipas to take the third position.
Predicted semifinalists — Nadal (1) and Thiem (2)
Semifinals
Zverev to defeat Thiem in straight sets
Nadal to defeat Medvedev in three sets
Zverev is expected to defeat Thiem in straight sets and Nadal will outlast Medvedev in a closely contested encounter, setting up a repeat of the 2020 Paris Masters semifinals.
Finals
Zverev to defeat Nadal in close three set
Zverev is expected to win his second title in London outlasting Rafa in three sets.
Do you agree with the predictions? If not, who do you think will win the 2020 ATP Finals?
I would love to know your thoughts. Leave a comment!