Sri Lankan Presidential Election 2019 — Guide to winning Kalutara District
Few days back I wrote couple of articles covering the voter behavior and predictions of Colombo and Gampaha districts using the past election results and current political conditions. In this third article I’ll be covering Kalutara District.
General Statistics and Past Presidential Election
In terms of voter population Kalutara is the smallest district in Western province, with 955,079 eligible voters according to official elector registration statistics of 2018. This account for 6% of overall Sri Lankan voter base.
When looking back at the past presidential elections, Kalutara district has been a stronghold of SLFP with J.R. Jayewardene being the only UNP or UNP backed candidate to win the district. Mahinda Rajapaksa won Kalutara three times (2004, 2010 and 2015) and Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga won the district twice (1994 and 1999).
Mahinda Rajapaksa secured the most dominant victory, when he received 63.1% of the votes in 2010. In the last presidential election he defeated NDF candidate Maithripala Sirisena by more than 46,000 votes. Former President Rajapaksa’s popularity in the district was further evident when SLPP easily won the 2018 local government election, even though it was the first election contested by the party.
Among third party candidates, Nandana Gunathilake remains the only candidate to get more than 20,000 votes in Kalutara, by securing 4.5% of the votes in 1999.
Polling Divisions and Voter Behavior
Kalutara district consist of 8 polling divisions and those can be classified in to 3 groups based on the voter behavior in the past elections as given below.
Unlike Colombo and Gampaha, all polling divisions in Kalutara has been won by SLFP candidates regularly. In fact, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Mahinda Rajapaksa won all polling divisions of Kalutara from 1994 to 2010.
Therefore based on the trends, we can predict that SLPP will dominate in Bandaragama, Horana, Bulathsinhala and Matugama divisions where majority of the voters are Sinhala Buddhists. In addition, SLPP is favored to win in Agalawatta, Kalutara and Panadura divisions with more than 50% of the votes.
Among the SLPP favored divisions Maithripala Sirisena managed to win the Panadura division. If we look at the census data from 2012, approximately 20% of the overall population of Panadura polling division consist of Muslims (15%) and Roman Catholics (5%). In addition, JVP also have a strong base in Panadura division, which was evident in 2018 local government polls. However, even with the support of a broader coalition President Sirisena only won Panadura polling division by 912 votes over Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015. Therefore, in 2019 election Panadura division is likely to be won by the SLPP candidate.
Result of the Beruwala polling division is hard to predict. Approximately 35% of the overall population in the division are Muslim and more than 8% are Roman Catholic, therefore UNP should be expected to win in Beruwala. However, among UNP candidates only Maithripala Sirisena and J.R. Jayewardene has won Beruwala constituency, with SLFP candidates winning from 1988 to 2010. Interestingly in 2005, Mahinda Rajapaksa won seat by meager 12 votes.
Key Success Factors for main candidates in Kalutara
For Gotabhaya Rajapaksa
Based on the election dynamics discussed above, Gotabhaya should win Kalutara district comfortably. However, considering the overall election, he should at least get ~125,000–150,000 votes more than Sajith. To achieve this objective he needs to;
· Secure at least 60% of the votes in Bandaragama, Horana, Bulathsinhala and Matugama divisions
· Receive ~55% of the votes in Panadura and Agalawatta
· Win Beruwala with more than 50% of the votes
Challenges faced in achieving these goals;
· Build confidence among Muslim voters in order to win in divisions like Beruwala and Panadura.
· Ensure majority support of SLFP voter base as some of the senior SLFP leaders are likely to crossover before the election (e.g., Kumara Welgama).
For Sajith Premadasa
Similar to Gampaha, Sajith needs to minimize the damage in Kalutara. To do that he needs to do the following;
· Win Beruwala by securing at least 50% of the votes
· Secure at least 45% of the votes in Panadura and Agalawatta
· Secure close to 40% of the votes in SLPP dominant divisions
Impact of the third party candidates
Overall, I don’t expect the third party candidates to get more than 6% — 7% of the vote in Kalutara. Like in Colombo and Gampaha, majority of the third party votes will go to Anura Kumara Dissanayaka as JVP has a strong base in Panadura and Agalawatta.
Predicted result for Kalutara District
Predicted results of each polling division using past election outcomes and current political conditions are given below.
Western Province Prediction
Based on the predictions I made so far Gotabhaya Rajapaksa will win all three districts in Western Province and get close to 52% of the overall vote. This will enable him to secure 375,000–400,000 votes more than Sajith Premadasa, who is expected to receive 41% of the votes.
What do you think will happen? Like to know more about your opinion on this topic.