Scotland’s Electoral Data 3: Electorate Change
The Electoral Commission publishes data on all of the UK’s elections. As well as results, this includes data on turnout, vote validity, registration and much more. You can explore this data yourself here:
We collect and publish key electoral data which forms part of our evaluation on how elections are conducted in…www.electoralcommission.org.uk
The kernel of this post grew from the following press release:
Today the Electoral Commission has published the provisional electorate figures for the UK and Gibraltar ahead of the…bit.ly
This was released prior to the Referendum on Leaving the EU and contained electorate figures and initial comparison.
This third electoral data analysis looks at changes to the electorate. Since 2010 there have been two General Elections, two Scottish Parliamentary Elections, and two major referendums.
Voter eligibility changes between these on varying grounds including age and citizenship. Population changes also come into play. The analysis here is not on those factors but on the observed changes.
Electorate data at a national and local authority level was identified, and proportions and comparisons calculated.
A lot of questions at a whole lot of different levels of detail — I’m going to go for five but there are probably fifty worth thinking about:
- Is there a reason why Northern Ireland is the only nation to have seen no negative change in electorate numbers in recent voting events? (Luck? Demographic structure? Registration mechanism / campaign? Societal changes?)
- Are the components of Scotland’s electorate change quantified and where does Scotland’s future electorate trajectory head?
- Do fluctuating eligibility criteria lead to voter confusion and/or apathy in subsequent ballots?
- There is significant variation in electorate change across Scottish Local Authorities across a relatively short time frame between independence and EU referendums. What is the relative impact of likely key drivers (e.g. age and citizenship requirements) and how does this vary by regions?
- Of the evident changes in electorate size between nations or regions, what is the scale of ‘transfer’ of voters from one region or nation to another?