The clear future of campaigning is data modeling. Here’s why.
Whether looking to run a targeted ad, win votes, or mobilize supporters, understanding your audience is at the core of success. We are in a data-driven world of outreach — for the most part, the messages you recieve from companies, campaigns and causes are not accidental. Someone, somewhere is working and paying to guarantee you specifically recieved a purposeful message. While there is a good amount of competition in the data modeling industry, a few specific fims stand out as particularly effective, unique and innovative.
Generally, the capabilities of industry leaders work like this. Analytics firms have a voter file on hand, with information about real voters in the United States. From here, they work on behalf of their clients — who typically connect their data with the analytics company for more accuracy — and use this understood data to predict how individuals will behave. Commonly in politics and advocacy, this information is particularly useful in GOTV campaigns, fundraising, predicting who will participate in elections, and mobilizing more volunteers.
The innovation comes in when companies are able to differentiate themselves by adding more capabilities and modifications to the traditional model. The first of few that stand out is HaystaqDNA, famed for working for Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders and traditionally progressive causes. Their model begins the same as others with the voter data on file, but from here they allow clients to purchase specific “scores” on issues that are important to them. Some of the “hot issues” listed are the Citizens United decision, Social Security tax, unions, gay marriage and legalization of marijuana. They have over 60 continuously-updated issue topics to chose from, and clients pay per issue. Insight is then offered whether voters — given their history, demographic information, and even non-political traits — would support or oppose the proposed issue. Custom issue models are also available.
For the Sanders campaign, HaystaqDNA created a custom microtargetting platform to predict various working parts of the overall campaign . For example, they used modeling technology to predict who would support Bernie over Hillary, who is most likely to participate in primaries, volunteer or donate. Bernie Sanders entered the race with little name recognition and left with 47% of all Democrats on his side.
On the other side, Cambridge Analytica was at the forefront of data and modeling for Donald Trump’s campaign. The company polled voters in 17 key states every day for months to pioneer insightful marketing strategies. From here, they developed custom data models to predict voter behavior. They also partnered with 30 other companies in the space to target issue specific ads to individuals — an example being if you are a swing voter that cares deeply about healthcare, you could expect to recieve various pro-Trump healthcare ads in an attempt to encourage you to vote for him. Trump’s campaign techologies were celebrated in the world of digital advertising for their innovation and effectiveness — and Cambridge was at the core.
Clearly, the most successful and widely used analytics companies are the ones that offer capabilities above and beyond the already extraordinary technological pursuits of data modeling. Embodying the image of a full-service political consulting firm, Murphy Nasica is one of the leaders in data modeling, but also run creative, targeted advertising, grassroots advocacy, operations and general consulting. Typically a firm does the expected analytics and campaigns will turn to other companies to conduct different parts of the campaign. Working mostly in the Texas political world, Murphy Nasica starts with analytics at the core, but also leads direct mail, TV and radio production to target voters with specific messages.
Finally, as seen in previous posts, legislative contact through unconventional means is quickly growing in popularity. Resolutely, combined with modeled data, the capabilities are outstanding. BlueLabs is one of the companies in this space, working for various advocacy groups to help with outreach to lawmakers. Using data in legislative outreach makes perfect sense. BlueLabs uses data and research to give scores to individuals likely to to volunteer to speak with their elected officials. Finding and reaching out to individuals willing to engage on specific policies is far more effective than cold calling or running a loosely researched digital campaign.
Already deeply entrenched in the political world, data modeling is the future of targeted advertising and voter outreach. While there are many companies existing in this space, the more successful ones are the ones with capabilities to offer beyond simply taking a large data file and forming conclusions and predictions about it. As we edge closer to election season once again, watching how modeled data usage grows will be something to watch out for.
